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Topical issues of previous weeks

European Union Energy Policy (until the 30th of October of 2006)
The European Union, which is still trying to overcome the Constitutional crisis, is facing a new negotiating challenge: the need to standardize the European Union’s energy markets. This is the aim of the latest Summits held by the 25 members, which deal with the disputes among large European energy companies that are trying to achieve a relative hegemony in the energy market beyond their national borders. Nevertheless, we are still far from reaching a true free trade energy market within the EU, due to the strong economic nationalism and the protectionism that hampers the development of big Pan-European energy companies. Today, half of the energy that powers Europe comes from foreign markets, mostly Russia. Brussels forecasts this percentage will rise up to 70% in the short term.
Self-determination of Gibraltar (until the 11th of April of 2006)
Gibraltar is the last colony in Europe, a last trace of the colonizing period that redesigned the Old Continent during the XVIII and XIX centuries. This territory is a fortress located in a strategic position of the Iberian Peninsula, with a rich military past and a deeply rooted national identification of the Gibraltarian as British citizens. This rock, which has been a disputed issue between Spain and the United Kingdom over the last decades, fell under British sovereignty with the Utrecht Treaty ending the Spanish Secession War in the XVIII century. It is important to know the fundamental clause of the Treaty: if the British ever renounce to their sovereignty, the rock shall be offered in first place to Spain. This is important now because the Gibraltarian are questioning their national identity and are debating about a reform of the 1969’ Constitution. The Governor of Gibraltar, Pedro Caruana, has led the delegation that met with the British authorities in London to discuss the self-determination of the Gibraltarian people, who show a lack of affection towards Spain, as proved the results of the 1969’ Referendum. On its side, the Spanish government is pleased with the negotiations’ results for British government guarantees the fulfilment of all bilateral agreements, while Caruana is far from achieving the recognition of the self-determiniation right, even thought Gibraltar already enjoys a very extended level of autonomy.
Elections in Israel (until the 27th of March of 2006)
The electoral campaign of Israel’s general elections, to be held on March 28th, has started. Even thought some 30 political groups participate in the elections, most of the votes will be distributed among the three main parties: the Likud, lead by former Prime Minister Netanyahu, Kadima, established by Sharon in 2005 as formal scission of the above said party and finally the Labour Party. People’s willingness to vote seems to be high and polls point at Kadima’s victory, party lead by the interim Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert. The elections results are going to be greatly influenced by the results of the last Palestinian elections that brought Hamas to power.
Argentina chairs the UN Security Council (until the 20th of March of 2006)
Argentina assumes the monthly presidency of the UN Security Council. During its term the Presidency will have to deal with some hot issues: Haiti, Iran, Darfur, Afganistán, Iraq and Kosovo. The Council shall seek a peaceful solution to the complicated situation in Haiti, it also has to closely follow up Iran’s nuclear proliferation controversy and the final decision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on whether it sends the issue to the Security Council. Sudan’s armed conflict in Darfur (ethnic cleansing) shall also be discussed to take urgent measures in order to avoid further violence and displacements. Finally the Council shall supervise Kosovo’s secession process, a region that has been under UN control since 1999. NATO participation in ISAF operation (Afghanistan) and the future of Iraq shall also be treated during the Argentinean presidency.
Physical abuses in Iraq (until the 10th of March of 2006)
The publication of one video with British soldiers beating ad nauseam some young Iraqis has raised concerns again in the civilized world. Soldiers were not exposed by a hidden journalist, on the contrary it was a member of its own squadron who filmed the hiding, adding to the registration its delighted comments to the already disgusting images.
Symbols’ war (until the 02nd of March of 2006)
The cartoons satirizing the sacred image of Mahomet published in a Danish newspaper have triggered a wave of protests in the Islamic countries. Flags burning and the violence against North European countries in Syria, Iran and Jordan have focused the attention of the public opinion. Some Muslims have considered the publication of these cartoons as an offence to their culture and have taken the streets to protest against what they also consider an attack on its religion.
Ukraine, a country in the hands of clans (until the 23rd of February of 2006)
Written by MIGUEL YBARRA OTÍN and OLGA SKOMOROSHCHENKO Politics and business go together in Ukraine. Three clans closely linked to power own the biggest companies and industries, the media and even football teams, they are the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Kiev clans. According to opposition leader Víktor Yúshchenko “50% of Ukrainian economy is hidden”. Yuri Kostenko, former Environmental minister during Kuchma’s government, supports Yúshchenko and guarantees that “one third of state budget is stolen; a forth of GDP doesn’t reach budget; clans don’t pay taxes and state wealth is sold at symbolic prices”. Furthermore, he reports the use of 2 million dollars of state budget to finance Yanukovich’s campaign. The Donetsk clan is headed by the prime minister Yanukovich (who went to prison twice, in 1968 and in 1972, both times for aggression) and by the businessmen Serhy Taruta and Rinat Ajmetov, who with 3.500 million dollars is the richest man in Ukraine. They manage 139 big firms, mines, iron and steel plants, metallurgic and chemical plants, agricultural and food factories, banks, the media, football teams, etc. Ajmetov, owner of the Shakhtar Donetsk team “imposed Yanukovich’s candidature as president to Kuchma” affirms Andriy Derkach, reporter of the Ukrainian News agency. The Dnipropetrovsk clan is managed by Víktor Pinchuk, a Jew who is Kuchma’s son-in-law and MP of the Party of Businessmen. His business links him to Bush father, George Soros and Henry Kissinger. The Polish weekly magazine Wprost reported in October 2002 that his wealth amounted to 1.300 million dollars, but over the last year it grew to 2.500. This growth is due to the purchase of industries sold by the government at discount prices: the iron and steel plant Krivorishtal, one of the country’s biggest, was sold a few months ago to Ajmetov and Pinchuk; together they made the lowest offer, 800 million dollars, against the 1.200 million offered by the Russian company Severstal and the 1.500 offered by the British-US consortium LNM-US Steel. The Kiev clan is managed by two good friends and business partners: Víktor Medvedchuk and Grigory Surkis. Medvedchuk, leader of the United Social Democratic Party (SDPU-O), is Kuchma’s Chief of Staff; his wealth his valued more than 800 million dollars. Currently, Surkis is the president of Ukrainian Football Federation and, before handing over the position to his brother Igor, he was president of Dínamo of Kiev. The clan manages, among other, the television 1+1, whose reporters refuse to broadcast in protest against censorship. Ajmetov, Pinchuk and Medvedchuk are the three richest men of Ukraine. Although Kuchma did not represent any of the three clans, he kept an equilibrium between the three. Kostenko believes that this equilibrium will break if Yanukovich is president: “he would turn Ukraine into Donetsk’s clan, which would lead to the law of power and not to the power of the law.”
Bush presented the Washington Declaration on Sharon’s Plan in a complicated context. (until the 30th of November of 2004)
April has turned into the bloodiest month in Irak’s “postwar”. Around 1.000 Iraqis and 100 US soldiers have been killed in the past 20 days. Today three main battlefronts are open. One is in Faluya, where most of the killing has occurred after the assassination of 3 US contractors. Another front is the siege of the holy city of Najaf, where the shia religious leader, Al Sadr, wanted by the US forces because of his implication in the killing of another religious leader, has found shelter. Finally, on the third front, there is the kidnapping issue. Around 40 civil foreigners from 12 nationalities are kept under rebel forces. The hostage crisis is becoming a great obstacle in the Iraq’s reconstruction efforts, and has intensified the debate in the hostage’s countries. Even if a peaceful negotiation has been undertaken to solve the situation in all these fronts, last events show how stability in Iraq is far from reached. A violent solution in any of these fronts, and especially in Najaf, would jeopardize the stabilization process. The ineffectiveness shown by the Iraqui’s security forces and the widespread violence could reduce the importance of the transfer of power to Iraq’s provisional government due in June 30th. If the handover is done under these circumstances of violence the new government’s dependence on US military forces will be so evident that it could reduce its legitimacy. On the other hand, the International Community still has not recovered from the Madrid’s 11-M terrorist attacks. Spain, Honduras and Dominican Republic have ordered their troops to go home. November elections in the US could polarize public opinion on the Iraq issue. In this difficult context, through the Washington Declaration President Bush has recently given full support to Sharon’s Plan for unilateral disengagement. Bush has described as unrealistic the possibility to go back to 1949’s borders, legitimating the stay of some of Israel’s colonies in the West Bank and breaking the US’s traditional foreign policy stand on the issue. A few days later, Israel’s forces killed, Dr. Rantisi, the new leader of Hamas. This is adding fuel to the fundamentalism’s fire. Intensification of the Middle East conflict could have severe destabilization consequences on the international system and world peace.
ATTACKS AGAINST THE SHIA COMMUNITY (until the 22nd of April of 2004)
It isn’t the first time that Shia are stroked in Iraq. Nevertheless, terrorist attacks, which took place on March 2nd, the bloodiest day since the end of the war, are especially relevant due to the date and places chosen and to the deaths it caused, 184 pilgrims killed and 430 injured. Other 47 people were killed in Pakistan. Attacks happened during a very important holiday for the Shia (10% of Islam’s World community), the Ashuria day, when this community celebrates its schism from the major Islamic school, the Sunnite. Terrorist attacks stroke Shia’s holy places, around and inside the Hussein’s mosque in Kerbala and Al-Kazem’s in Baghdad. Besides, these attacks coincided with the day the official announcement of the new constitution was to be made. This interim constitution, agreed between the Council of Government of Iraq and Bremer’s Provisional Administration, should rule the transitional period, the end of the occupation (June 30th) and the elections process (early 2005). Attacks have shadowed and put off the official announcement of the agreement reached on the Constitution. The provisional Constitution will declare Islam as the official religion and a source of law (not the only one), it will establish a federal system and guarantee women’s political representation. Abu Musab al-Zaraqawi has been pointed out as the mind behind these terrorist attacks. This Jordan man is said to be linked to Al-Qaeda, organization based on Sunni Wahabist precepts. Suicide killing methods, still to be confirmed, would support these accusations. US information services have recently published an Al-Zaraqawi’s supposed letter they intercepted, where he describes the Shia Community as a fundamental enemy for its “collaboration” with the occupation forces. Nevertheless, a letter purporting to come from al-Qaeda denied on march 3rd any role in anti-Shia explosions. The letter, signed "Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades (al-Qaeda)", was sent to the London-based al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper. Anyhow attacks reveal the Civil War menace and put in danger Iraqi’s sovereignty recovery agenda. Somehow it seems paradoxical that, on one hand, Shias political representatives face Sunnites counterparts to defend Islam’s role in the future state, and in the other hand, foreign Islamic fundamentalists linked to Al-Qaeda supposedly attack them.
Haiti's polítical crisis (until the 03rd of March of 2004)
Protests against Jean-Bertrand Aristide have intensified and caused about 42 deaths in the last 5 days. The Artibonite Revolutionary Resistance Front occupied Gonaïves, country’s fourth city, on February 5th. Another dozen towns have fallen under the control of heterogeneous rebel groups that demand Aristide’s resignation. The government, which lacks of an army since 1994, has regained 3 towns and avoided the widespread of more local uprisings through the mobilization of its 5.000 policemen and pro-government armed groups. Opposition’s claims date back to presidential and legislative elections of the year 2000 that led to the reelection of Aristide and that international observers labeled as rigged. Since then, negotiations between government and opposition hosted by the OAS and the CARICOM haven’t produced any concrete result. The causes of the intensification of the conflict respond to 3 main factors. First of all, the fragile situation of the poorest country of America (80% below poverty level) has worsen because of the negative influence that fraud accusations have had on international donors, on foreign investors and on internal business climate. Secondly, the Artibonite Revolutionary Resistance Front, former “Cannibal Army”, changed side joining the opposition’s forces on September 2003, due to its suspicions about government’s involvement in the killing of its former leader. In third place, parliament has recently finished its term and, due to disagreements on the Electoral Committee and to political instability, Aristide has not yet fixed a date for legislative elections creating and institutional void and forcing the Government to rule by decree. The main opposition parties have rejected armed uprisings and ask for a political solution. Nevertheless the future of the crisis remains uncertain due to the heterogeneity of the upraised armed groups, to people’s discontent, and to government’s weak security corps.
Sharon announces his plan to evacuate all Gaza Strip settlements (until the 12th of February of 2004)
In an interview granted to Haaretz on February 2nd, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon announced his plan to evacuate all Gaza Strip settlements. The plan, which would affect 7.000 people from 17 settlements, has great symbolism and political relevance. The announcement has been made one month prior to Sharon’s official visit to the US. Lately, bilateral relations between theses countries have cooled due to the rising of the separation wall and the effects that this has had on the Road Map. Ehud Olmert, Israeli Vice-premier had already presented to Dick Cheney and Collin Powell some aspects of this plan in an interview held in Washington last Thursday. The announcement surprised the international and, above all the national community. It has not been welcomed by the settlers, who promised mobilizations, and by the nationalist and conservative parties of the government’s coalition, including high representatives of Sharon’s party. Government’s coalition partners are angry because the plan has been announced without prior internal consensus, and they threat to block it. Sharon, whose position is already weakened by the accusations that link him to a bribery case, has responded to these critics by proposing a national referendum on the evacuation issue, which according to opinion polls would favor the plan. On the other hand Palestinian authorities are skeptical about the announcement, and they fear, as some experts said, that it is a maneuver to please the US, to cut critics on the separation wall, and to be able to consolidate settlement’s presence in the West Bank. According to these experts, Sharon wants to carry on unilaterally its separation plan as an alternative to the stagnation of the Road Map. Anyhow, if the plan gets through government’s internal opposition, settlement’s evacuation is not due to be completed before 12 months.
World Economic Forum & World Social Forum, two ways to look at the World (until the 05th of February of 2004)
For the fourth year in a row two different ways to face globalization have been expressed through these Forums. 11-S widely altered and put to silence this dichotomy. Now with a relative stabilization of the International System this issue comes back to the headlines. On one hand, the World Social Forum (WSF), which in its earlier editions took place in Porto Alegre, has been held this year in Mumbai, India from January 16th to 20th. The meeting succeeded to gather together 120.000 participants. Nevertheless, the organizers have received some critics from those sectors that ask for a more active and radical agenda to face social problems which have been wildly shown through the confrontation with India’s social reality. In this sense Mumbai will open an internal debate on the reorganization of the WSF to allow to turn into actions the theories that are discussed each year. On the other hand, the World Economic Forum, once again held in Davos winter resort in Switzerland, will take place from January 21st to 25th. This year the forum is entitled: “Working together towards prosperity and peace”. The meeting of the ministries of commerce, where they will try to unblock the Doha negotiations after Cancun’s failure, will be one the most important events of this year’s Forum.
Aftermath of the World Summit on the Information Society (until the 23rd of January of 2004)
The World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) took place in Geneva from December 9th to 12th. The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) has been preparing this Summit since 1999. WSIS brings to an end the first phase of the global thought on the implications of the information and communications technologies (ICTs) for our Society. It opens the second phase that will end with the next World Summit to be held in Tunisia in 2005. The results achieved in Geneva have been presented as a compromise between the developed and the developing countries. The numerous representatives of the Civil Society invited to the Summit disagreed with such interpretation and presented an independent Final Declaration. The main issues at stake were: the institutional system for the Internet governance, the freedom of information and communication, and the technological gap between North and South. Some representatives asked to transfer the authority of the Internet governance from ICANN, a private corporation under the umbrella of the US Dept. of Commerce, to a multilateral organization under UN control (probably ITU). The idea to create an international fund for technological development was also discussed. No decision was taken on these two issues, but it was agreed to keep them in the Tunis’05 agenda. Regarding the information and communication freedom, a compromise was reached and reflected in the final Declaration of Principles. Finally the decision to hold in Tunisia next WSIS was criticized because of this country’s unclear record regarding freedom of information. Furthermore, the organizers were criticized because it came to light the use of electronic devices inserted in the Summit’s IDs to track the movements of those present without their consent.
Extraordinary Summit of the Americas in Monterrey (until the 14th of January of 2004)
On January 12th and 13th an extraordinary summit of the Americas will be held in the Mexican city of Monterrey (Nuevo Leon). During this summit the presidents of 34 American states (all except Cuba) will debate the concretion of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) in 2005 and perhaps they discuss the war in Iraq. Although both subjects are out of the official agenda, according to recent declarations of John Maisto, US ambassador to the O.A.S. “is important to reiterate what our ministers of Trade decided in Miami” at the end of November to “fulfil the negotiations”. The main subject, nevertheless, will be the question of the distribution of wealth, considering that in Latin America and the Caribbean the richest 10% of the population accumulates 48% of the wealth whereas the poorest 10% only enjoy 1,6%. To achieve an agreement between the statelist positions, like the ones defended by Lula or Hugo Chavez, as opposed to most neoliberal ones promoted by Bush, will not be an easy task. Indeed, the recent announcement of Bush to apply a wide program of legalization for the almost 8 million Latin American illegal immigrants who live and work in the United States would establish, at least, the bases for the recognition of a situation generated by the enormous inequality of the distribution of wealth in the Americas, despite the oportunism of the proposal in an electoral year in which the Latin vote can be decisive.
Sharon widens the Jewish settlements in the Golan (until the 08th of January of 2004)
After the attack in October by the Israeli aviation to a Palestinian refugees camp in the outskirts of Damascus, which supposed the first Jewish armed intervention in Syrian ground since 1973, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon has approved a plan to build 900 houses for Hebrew settlers in the Golan Heights. This announcement, that will allow the number of settlers to grow from the current 18,000 to up to 27,000, has been made only a few days after Damascus announced its will to retake the dialogue with Tel Aviv. The strategic territory of Golan, from where the sources of the Jordan river and great part of the hydric resources of the region are controlled, was conquered by Israel after the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, and annexed in 1981. In a clear gesture of challenge, the Israeli minister of Agriculture, Israel Katz, has declared "... I would like that (Syrian) president Bashar al Assad could see how the Golan blooms ".
Terror attacks againt the president of Pakistan (until the 02nd of January of 2004)
The president of Pakistan, general Pervez Musharraf, underwent the Christmas day the second attack against his life in less than 2 weeks. Wide sectors of the army and, mainly, the intelligence services (ISI), are closely tie to Islamic fundamentalist groupings and parties, with whom they collaborate since the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. In fact the taliban, formed in the Quranic schools (mederesh) of Peshawar and Quetta, had Islamabad's political and logistic support until the September 11th 2001, and Pakistan was the last country in retiring its recognition to the taliban regime in Kabul. The influence of the islamists in the security services has allowed, according to the analysts, both almost consecutive attacks against Musharraf, making unclear its capacity to guarantee the security in the South Asian for Association Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit foreseen for next week in Pakistan. The present pro-US line of the Pakistani government in the proclaimed international war against terrorism has turned Musharraf a high-priority objective for Al Qaeda, while the country looks for an approach with India in the Kashmir and nuclear issues that allows to improve the regional stabilization and attract investors.
Sudan Peace Talks Progress (until the 27th of December of 2003)
After the 11th September, the United States urges in the mediation of the Sudanese conflict sponsoring conversations that lead to the declaration of a truce for six months in the region of mounts of Nuba (central Sudan) and to an agreement of free circulation of the humanitarian aid. In July 2002 the peace talks begin in Machakos, near the Kenyan capital, between the Government of Omar to al-Bashir and the Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M), the main armed group of the Christians of southern Sudan. These negotiations conclude in his first stage with the signature of an important protocol in July 20th, that supposes the commitment to open a six years long transitory period, during which the South will enjoy a Statute of autonomy and the Sharia (Islamic law) will not be applied in that zone. This announcement is considered as an endorsement to the SPLA/M theses and a sample that the Sudanese authorities are beginning to respond to the US strategic coordinates favorably. Actually, the US-Sudan relations have experienced a remarkable progress since the American strike in a pharmaceutical plant of Sudan in 1998. The Sudanese government and the SPLA began the last round of peace talks last July in Kenya, aimed at ending the longest civil war in the continent, under the auspices of the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a seven-member regional group in East Africa, which consists of Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Uganda, Eritrea, Tanzania and Sudan. Both parties have been committed to reaching a final deal by the end of year during the peace talks recently hold in Naivasha.
Iraqi Libanization (until the 17th of December of 2003)
The Oil for Food Program, the only one exclusively financed by resources of the own beneficiary country, expired on November 21st, putting into the hands of the occupying powers the distribution of the humanitarian aid in Iraq. Actually the country has sunk in a libanisation formed by such heterogeneous groups as faithful baasists loyal to Saddam Hussein (reportedly hidden somewhere in western Iraq), iraqis and foreign Islamic terrorists financed by Al Qaeda, and disorganized groups arisen from the popular hostility against the occupants. The attacks against the United Nations and the Red Cross n Bagdad do not hide that what is happening in Iraq goes beyond a terrorism problem. The attacks perpetrated against the Italian carabinieri and the Spanish intelligence services are added to the constant dripping of losses suffered by the US troops in ambushes and surprise and terrorist attacks. Critics against the Bush Administration have embodied in the call made by France, Russia and Germany to the UN in order to hold an International Summit on the Future of Iraq. The United States has asked for a greater participation of this international organism, offer that has been rejected by its Secretary General, who has affirmed that the United Nations will not massively unfold in Iraq until the security conditions do not improve. The proximity of the elections in the United States drives the Bush policy towards Iraq, that looks for the assumption of greater responsibilities by the international community (Japan has announced that will send 600 troops) a double electoral argument: to gain supports to legitimize his "pre-emptive strike" doctrine and to reduce the high human and financial cost that the present situation represents for the United States.
Rarefied climate before the legislative elections in Russia (until the 09th of December of 2003)
Russia celebrates legislative elections next Sunday, still conditioned by the controversial performance of the army in Chechnia, the scandals of corruption, and the fight between economic oligarchies and Vladimir Putin's government. The Chechen conflict, described by the government as a terrorism problem, has re-emerged within the Russian public opinion as a result of the publication of some photos in the newspaper Novaya Gazeta showing sequences of an unpublished recording of video in which an agent of the FSB (the former KGB) executes one of the Dubrovka street's theater kidnappers when he was unconscious, in October 2002. On the other hand, the displeasure between the Russian enterprise sector has been in crescendo since the president of Yukos, Mijail Jodorkovsky, was arrested this summer. The situation has become so serious that the General Director of the National Strategy Council, Stanislav Belkovsky, has alerted on the possibility of a coup d'etat encouraged by the economic elites.
France and Germany break the Stability and Growth Pact (until the 02nd of December of 2003)
The recent break down of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) by France and Germany with no sanctions adopted against them has opened a deep institutional credibility crisis within the European Union. The SGP is the concrete EU answer to concerns on the continuation of budgetary discipline in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and it considers sanctions up to 0'5% GDP for those countries whose public debt surpasses 3% GDP. Adopted in 1997, the SGP strengthened the Treaty provisions on fiscal discipline, and the full provisions took effect when the euro was launched on 1 January 1999. This French-German decision seems inseparable of the delicate political moment within the EU in occasion of the divergences between their members dealing with issues such as the occupation on Iraq, the enlargement to the East in 2004 and the disagreements on the European Constitution.
Anti-Hebrew terrorist attack in Istambul (until the 26th of November of 2003)
The attack against two synagogues in Istambul last Saturday, that left a balance of 25 dead and more than 200 wounded, has made clear that the ramifications of Al Qaeda, who has vindicated the responsibility, also extend to a lay country as Turkey. In fact the attack can be simultaneously interpreted as an attack against the Jewish community and the Turkish state, that in spite of being governed for a year by a moderate islamist party has maintained its traditional good relations with Tel Aviv. In this context Ankara pointed quickly to the international networks of terrorism, that could have enjoyed with the support of small local fundamentalist groups which were considered unoperational for long time on.
Fraud in the Elections in Georgia (until the 18th of November of 2003)
The elections hold on November 2 in Georgia and whose definitive results have not yet been disclosed, have opened a political crisis that has driven thousands of Georgians to the streets amid of irregularity and fraud accusations against the president Eduard Sheverdnadze. This Caucasian republic, sunk since the dissolution of the USSR in an economic and social crisis which does not succeeds to recover, lays in a key geostrategic place due to the exports of the Caspian oil and gaz through pipe lines that cross its territory, and has been uninterruptedly governed since its independence by the former Soviet Foreign Minister with Mijail Gorbachov. According to Central Election Commission statistics, Shevardnadze's bloc, For a New Georgia, looked on track to collect 21 percent of the vote as of November 7. In the constantly shifting official count, his National Movement party received 18.5 percent of the vote, but non-government sources put their results closer to 25 percent. The instability, agravated by the latent conflict in Osetia and mainly in Abjasia (where 10 years ago Commonwealth of Independent States peace keeping forces unfolded through the UNOMIG), opens a period of political undefinition for the future of this former Soviet republic.
Political Crisis in Sri lanka (until the 11th of November of 2003)
A burdens political crisis has exploded in Sri Lanka with the destitution of three ministers ordered by the president, Chandrika Kumaratunga, and the troop movements in the capital and other regions of the country after Kumaratunga rejected the peace plan proposed last week by the secessionist Tigers of Liberation of Tamil Eelam. The force blow, that includes the suspension of the parliamentary activities during at least two weeks, occurs at the time that the prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was in a trip to Washington. Wickremesinghe is partisan of the peace talks continuity with the Tamil, and a political rival of Kumaratunga. The victory of Wickremesinghe in December 2001 opened, thanks to the Norwegian mediation, a peace process plenty of low stops, aimed to provide a political solution to the Tamil question. The division of the Ceylonese society on the convenience of continuing the conversations, nevertheless, has become a determining factor for the present instability.
Extended until January the MINURSO's Mandate (until the 04th of November of 2003)
The Security Council extended on Monday the mandate of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), due to expire on Friday, until the end of next January. The unanimous vote comes after Secretary-General Kofi Annan asked the Council earlier this month to give Morocco more time to consider a peace plan submitted by his Personal Envoy, James Baker, earlier this year, which calls for a referendum on the area’s future. The Baker Plan envisages a period of transition during which there would be a division of responsibilities between the parties before the holding of a referendum for self-determination within four or five years. Unlike an earlier proposal, the new peace plan does not require the consent of the parties at each and every step of its implementation.
15th APEC Summit in Bangkok (until the 28th of October of 2003)
From 17th to 22nd October Thailand helds the fifteenth Summit of Presidents and Prime Ministers of the 21 member countries of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). The APEC economies, a mechanism of annual meetings set up in 1989 in answer to the increasing economic and commercial interdependence of the Pacific basin countries, represents almost 50% of the world-wide GDP. This summit has been used by Washington to obtain a commitment of the APEC member countries in the war on terrorism, that in the final official notice has been translated in collaboration for "completely dismantling without delay the transnational terrorist groups". Some countries, like Malaysia, have regretted that the political agenda has shadowed the economic one. Dealing with the mass destruction arms, the APEC has agreed "to reinforce the international control systems on the non-proliferation". However, no explicit mention to North Korea has been done in the final document, although there has been an intense interchange of impressions among the presidents of China, United States, Russia and South Korea on the nuclear crisis with Pyongyang. Within the framework of the Bangkok summit diverse agreements at ministerial level between several countries have been concluded, specially on trade liberalization. In 2004 Chile he will be the guest of the next APEC summit.
Political and social crisis in Bolivia (until the 21st of October of 2003)
The ghost of the civil war has overflied Bolivia, after the serious incidents in several areas of the country that have left up to 40 dead. While the business sector has clearly supported president Sanchez de Losada, the resignation of vice-president Carlos Mesa to obey him though keeping his post, and the declarations of the commander of the Armed Forces general Roberto Claros, retiring the Army's support to the president "as person" in spite of being forced to support him as the legitimately chosen president, have opened a deep institutional crisis in the country. The rise, started on Sunday in el Alto when police and demonstrator convoked by some social sectors harmed by the agreements reached with US multinationals for the export of the Bolivian gas, has extended in La Paz, that has been militarized to protect the presidential palace, as well as in other cities and mining regions. The opposition leader Evo Moral, has asked the government through a Chilean radio to "do not insist on its intention to export the Bolivian gas". The lack of confidence in the Latin American economies since the Argentine crisis in December 2001 has worsened the social situation in many countries of that region, causing a growth of the social oriented movements of guevarista inspiration.
Syria in the crossroad (until the 14th of October of 2003)
The suicide attack perpetrated this weekend in Haifa by Tayasir Jaradat, a Palestine lawyer woman of Jenin, caused the immediate reaction of Israel, whose Air Forces bombed a Palestinian camp of refugees 15 kilometers far from Damascus, under the accusation by Tel Aviv to provide support to the Palestinian groups opposed to the peace talks. Syria, in a difficult situation of international isolation and threatened by the economic sanctions of the United States (the "Accountability Syrian Act" is being discussed in the Congress), immediately raised a protest before the Security Council of United Nations, that summoned a debate on the subject in an urgency meeting. Damascus, that since the defeat in the Yom Kippur war 30 years ago has been maintaining a strict respect of the cease-fire with Israel in its common border (where it lost the strategic region of the Golan Highs), based its foreign policy on the Soviet support until 1991, with the aim to maintain a regional balance with Israel that acted as a dissuasion in order to avoid possible Israeli retaliations. Actually, the hostility between both countries has been developed since 1974 in Lebanon. This new episode, with a frontal attack on Syrian ground by the Israeli Air Forces, represents a serious step towards the internationalization of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, that already has caused an energetic protest of the Arab Leage of States that will meet in extraordinary session this week.
Peacekeeping forces deployed in Liberia (until the 07th of October of 2003)
Liberia, the only African territory together with Ethiopia that remained independent from the European powers since the late XIX century, is severely affected by the protracted internal conflict that erupted in the late eighties. Charles Taylor came to power by force in 1990 and was elected President in 1997. Rebel groups have been fighting to overthrow Taylor between 1990 and 1997 and again from 1999, and disrespect for the rule of law, democracy and human rights has been minimal on all sides. There have been reports of resources plundering (diamonds, timber), endemic corruption and ethnic problems. Following the rebels’ advance in 2003 and under pressure from the international community the Government of Liberia agreed to come to the negotiation table. Peace talks held under the auspices of ECOWAS were under way since 4 June 2003. In the framework of these peace talks a cease-fire agreement was signed between the belligerent parties on 17 June 2003. Mandated by UN Security Council n° 1497 of 1 August 2003, ECOWAS started with the deployment of a peacekeeping force on 4 August to help enforce the cease-fire. Under pressure from the international community and in accordance with the agreements reached in Accra, Charles Taylor stepped down as President and handed over power to Vice-President Moses Blah on 11 August. The peace talks, still ongoing to reach an agreement on the composition of a future transitional government acceptable by all parts, are supported by the recent UN Security Council resolution 1509 of September 19 that guarantees the unfolding of 16,000 men including 250 military observers through the set up of the United Nations Mission for Liberia (UNMIL).
Political evolutions in Central Asia (until the 01st of October of 2003)
The former Soviet republics of Central Asia have been trying to create a frame of common understanding since the dissolution of the USSR, in order to defend their interests in opposition to the Russian influence in the region. This aim has obtained only very limited results due to the economic dependency, the ethnic problems and deficient infrastructures, factors all of them inherited from the Soviet era. The territorial division that Stalin designed for these republics responded in fact to the strategic interests of Moscow in the decade of the 20s of the last century. Only Uzbekistan has had the capacity to maintain a certain independence in its foreign policy regarding Moscow. The operation Enduring Freedom, that represented the arrival of US military bases to fight the taliban in Afghanistan, put these countries in the highlight of the international scene. Its strategical geographic situation and its relative abundance of energy resources have turned them the center of attention of diverse powers, like China, Iran, Turkey and the United States. On the other hand four of the five republics are still governed by the same presidents in charge before the 1991 independence, that is, the Soviet times. The fight against Islamic fundamentalism (spread mainly in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan), serves to a great extent as pretext to maintain the political authoritarianism, in front of a civil society each day more and more organized.
The European External Policy regarding Iraq (until the 23rd of September of 2003)
The presidents of France, Germany and the United Kingdom will meet next Saturday to approach positions on the European policy regarding Iraq. Indeed, the divergences between the Paris-Berlin axis and the London-Madrid-Rome one (with Italy occupying the EU semester presidency after the controversial taking of possession by Berlusconi in July), have blocked the adoption of a common policy towards the situation in Iraq, putting again in evidence the condition of economic giant and political dwarf of the European Union. Chirac and Schroeder, who will meet in Berlin on Thursday within the framework of the German-French annual consultations, will receive to Blair, with whom they will focus his conversations basically on the role of the United Nations in the post-Saddam Iraq , the eventual increase of troops and military presence, the humanitarian assistance and the resolutions of the Security Council, in addition to other issues of international relevance. Five months after the European Council hold in Athens, pretty after the war of Iraq, the differences between the European partners are still preventing the adoption of a common policy that would provide to Europe the political weight that should correspond to its economic and demographic size, in views to the enlargement in the first half of 2004.
Abu Ala, New Palestinian Prime Minister (until the 17th of September of 2003)
The last terrorist attack in Tel Aviv, commited on 9th September as an answer to the incursion of the Hebrew army in Hebrón, adds difficulties to the recently designated Palestinian prime minister Ahmed Qurea, alias Abu Ala, after the resignation of Abu Mazen last week. The resignation of Mazen, according to Palestinian sources, took place because Israel did not improve the situation of the population, did not release prisoners, did not stop the selective murders and did not restrain the construction of the border wall. As no significant advances have been registered in the fulfilment of the Road Map for the peace process since June, the Palestinian government has been remodeled. Abu Ala, considered a moderate with a wide political experience, militates since late 60's in Al-Fahta, the party of the Palestinian rais Yasser Arafat, has been president of the Palestinian Parliament and was one of the main negotiators for the Oslo agreements. The European Union already has showed its support to new prime minister, whom considers a personage with the ideal profile to give a new impulse to the peace process. The United States maintains an official silence on the matter, while the Israel's Foreign Minister has showed reserves until Abu Ala does not undertake the first measures as the head of government. A new stage in the application of the Road Map is opened therefore, whose results are still uncertain.
The difficulties of Lula's government (until the 09th of September of 2003)
The legislative reforms impelled by president Lula on Social Security and fiscal coresponsibility have opened a crisis in the Party of the Workers, whose left wing is considering to split, though the popularity of president Lula remains high among the population. The taxation of pensions higher than 480 monthly euros, the increase of the age to receive the retirement pensions, and the cut of certain rights (or privileges) for the public servants, has raised the malaise of certain social sectors who had previously voted Lula. On the other hand, the reform of the fiscal coresponsibility law has mobilized the municipalities all over the country, that demand a greater representativeness in the collection and management of the taxes. The issue of the Landless Workers Movement (LWM), focused by all parties during the electoral campaign and central in the political debate of the country, is not expected to provide immediate results, though the higher tolerance of PT's government to the occupations by the LWM. The sclerosis of the Brazilian public Administration and the relations with the local powers have become the authentic headache for the Lula government at the inner level, beside an economy that in spite of generating good spectations does not turns up. At the foreign policy level Brazil leads the process of regional integration of South America, and has become a country of reference for the World Social Forum after the victory of Lula.
Conversations on Korean denuclearization go on (until the 04th of September of 2003)
On August 27th a new negotiating round on the peninsula of Korea began in Beijing. Representatives of both Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States have assisted to the meeting. Despite the diplomatic tension between the United States and North Korea persists, Pyongyang has accepted to initiate the negotiations on the basis of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, a goal pursued by Seoul since the retreat of the US nuclear arsenals in South Korea in 1991. Pyongyang, who has always invoked its right to develop atomic weapons to guarantee its security, agrees this way to resign to those arsenals, in exchange for initiating bilateral conversations with Washington. Indeed, the United States conditions the establishment of conversations on a nonaggression agreement with Pyongyang to the total give up of the North Korean nuclear program. China, on the other hand, has reinforced its regional position with the role of mediator in the Korean issue. Although the conversations have finished without a definitive agreement, they will be retaken in October.
Libya within the international community (until the 29th of August of 2003)
The unforseeable personality of the Libyan leader Muammar al Gadaffi has determined since 1969, when the bloodless revolution that overthrew to king Idris as-Sanusi triumphed, the erratic foreign policy of the Arab Popular and Socialist Republic of Libya. Since his arrival to power, Gaddaffi launched a personal ideology denominated the Third Universal Theory between the Comunism and Capitalism, a "natural socialism" that places the source of all right in the Kuran. Very influenced by the figure of Nasser, Gadaffi tried in the 70s to become an outstanding leader of the panarabism. Its initial rejection to the atheistic materialism that represented the Soviet Comunism (he helped to abort a pro-Communist coup d'etat in Sudan in 1971) worth in the first years the implicit support of Washington to him, in spite of the evacuation of the British and American military bases in 1970. In the 80s Gaddaffi radically turned the foreign policy of Libya, looking for the Soviet aid to acquire new armament, impelling an interventionism in black Africa (Uganda, Somalia, Liberia, Burkina Faso) and taking military actions in Chad, facts that worth the confrontation with France and the United States. The Reagan Administration accused him to shelter and to finance international terrorist groups. The bombing of Tripoli and Bengasi by US forces in 1986 was responded with the attack against a passenger airplane on the Scottish locality of Lockerbie in 1988 by Libyan agents, that left a balance of 270 dead. In 1998 the United States and the United Kingdom accepted that the suspects of the Lockerbie attack were judged in the Netherlands as a neutral country, and the UN Security Council solved that the sanctions would be raised as soon as the delivery was made, which took place in 1999. The United States, nevertheless, maintained the blockade through the law Kenedy-D'Amato. Recently the United States and the United Kingdom have accepted to eliminate the sanctions that still weigh on Libya due to the change of Gaddaffi's attitude regarding the collaboration in the fight against international terrorism, after Tripoli accepted to pay a millionaire indemnification by the victims of Lockerbie. France, that also demands a similar treatment for the victims of the French airplane UTA 772 bombed by Libyan agents in 1989 on Niger, has threatened to block that decision in the Security Council.
The Iraki National Council starts a constitutional process (until the 19th of August of 2003)
Fulfilled 100 days since the symbolic fall of the Saddam Hussein' statue in Bagdad, the situation in Irak is far away to become normal. The Kurd north seems to be stabilized with the consolidation of its autonomy and the idea to set up a federal state -in spite of the relative cooling of the US Turkey relations-. In the Shiite south, where the influence of Iran has grown, does not exist an active armed resistance, although the rejection to the military presence of the international coalition (led by the United States, with operational personnel from 19 countries and cofinanced by almost 3 dozens countries) is increasing. The greater problems occur in the so called Sunnite triangle, where the consolidation of guerrillas is driving to a vietnamization of the conflict, and has forced the Pentagon to re-think the military strategy. The attack against the Jordanian embassy in Bagdad can be interpreted like a reaction to the turn off done by the Hashemite kingdom regarding Iraq after the death of king Hussein. On the other hand, the controversy of the nonpublished report by the Bush Administration on the supposed connections of the Saudi intelligence services with Al Qaeda, has contributed to widen the distance between Washington and Riyadh. The proposal of the US governor in Iraq, Paul Bremer, that a team of 150 iraki specialists studied the Constitution displayed by the Pentagon, was blocked by the Shiite leader Ayatolah Al Sistani. The National Iraqi Council, constituted a month ago, has set up a team of 25 specialists to initiate a consultative process between ethnic, religious, political and cultural groups that compose the complex mosaic of the country, in order to redact a Constitution. The UN Secretary General representative in Bagdad, the Brazilian Sergio Vieira de Mello, has recently showed his support to the initiative, after visiting Egypt.
Aliyev dinasty seeks continuity in power in Azerbaijan (until the 12th of August of 2003)
The octogenary president of Azerbaijan Haydar Aliyev, who entered in a clinic near Ankara the 8th July due to coronary problems, drove with the support of the Milli Majlis on August 4th to his son, Ilham Aliev, as the prime minister of the country, in substitution of Artur Rasi-Zade. This represents a de facto perpetuation in power of the Aliyev dynasty, since the Constitution of Azerbaijan foresees that prime minister assumes the presidential powers in case of incapacity of the president, before the call for presidential elections in a maximum term of three months. In the Muslim republics of the former USSR traditional tribal and clanic loyalties adapted perfectly to the hierarchized structure of the State and the Communist Party, giving rise after the dissolution of the Soviet Union to stable and personalist regimes with a political culture characterized by the political authoritarism and clientelism. Haydar Aliyev, linked during the Soviet era to the KGB, assumed in fact the presidency of the country in 1993, two years after independence, and has been uninterruptedly governing since then. His son Ilham is a stranger in the political scene, reason why doubts have risen regarding the continuity of the Azerbaijan's foreign policy, deeply conditioned by the conflict of Nagorno Karabaj with Armenia and the balance in its approach to the West -specially dealing with energy policies- and the maintenance of good neighbouring relations with Russia.
Military rebelion in the Philippines (until the 05th of August of 2003)
Last weekend the president of the Philippines, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, had to face a muttin carried out by 296 rebellious military, who took a strategic zone in the financial and diplomatic district of Makati. This attempt of coup d'état has opened a wide debate within the Philippine political environment on the necessity to reform the Armed Forces, attending to the warning on the probability of another rise done by the muttined military, who accuse the government to fail to fulfill their commitments with the Army. Gloria Macapagal, in a speech in which she thanked the international community for its support during the crisis, affirmed on Monday that "this event does not in any way injure our national security and political stability... Once more, this has been a triumph for democracy". The Philippines, a founding country of the ASEAN in 1967, is at present one of the hot spots of the international war against terrorism in Southeast Asia, by the existence of the Al-Qaeda linked Islamic independentists guerrillas Abbu Sayaf and the Moro Front of Liberation in southern regions of the country. Support to the civil government has been unanimous within the international community. The US Department of State has lauded the pacific resolution of the crisis, as well as the decision of president Macapagal to listen to the inquiries of the muttined soldiers and officials. The relations with China grow in the economic field within the framework of the Free Trade Agreement between ASEAN and China, but they remain difficult in the politicial field due to the constant fishing incidents and the disputed sovereignty of some small barren islands in the Southern China Sea. The fragility of the most westernized regime in Southeast Asia could suppose a threat for the stabilization of a regional balance within the framework of the present international system.
China within the current international framework (until the 30th of July of 2003)
On June the new Chinese president, Hu Jintao, fulfiled his first overseas tour through Mongolia, Central Asia, Russia and Europe, where he attended the G8 Summit in the Swiss city of Evian. In the meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin, the creation of a secretariat for the Shangai Cooperation Organization -until now an informal forum gathering Russia, China, Kirguiztan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tadzhikistan, to deal with border issues, economic cooperation and measures against the international terrorism- was decided. On July 17th a Chinese delegation arrived at Washington to deal with the North Korean nuclear program issue, after the US intelligence services announced that Pyongyang has developed a second reactor and that South Korea dennounced that his northern neighbourg has unfolded missiles capable to reach any part of Japan. China, who acts as a mediator between Washington and Pyongyang, has announced that in August will retake in Beijing the conversations between the United States, North Korea and the own China, started in April. On the other hand Beijing has obtained from the Bush Administration the commitment to defend the policy of "One China", thus rejecting any possibility of independence of Taiwan. The economic cooperation with the United States within the framework of the APEC has also centered the last diplomatic efforts between both countries. Always within the economic scope, the 1st July took effect the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-operation between ASEAN and China, that sets up the basis for the creation of a free trade area between China and Southeast Asia. The pragmatic foreign policy undertaken by Beijing determines the guidelines of its relocation in the current international system redefinition process.
Cooling of the Turkey-US relations (until the 22nd of July of 2003)
The detention of 11 soldiers of the Turkish special forces in the northern Iraqi city of Sulaimaniya by the US army, has made clear the bad moment that the Ankara-Washington relations know since the start of the war in Iraq. The Turkish refusal to yield its territory for the unfolding of US troops from its border with Iraq in March staged the cooling initiated with the victory of the moderate islamist Party of Justice and the Development in November 2002. Washington, who found in the Kurd pesh merga militias their natural allies against Saddam Hussein in northern Iraq, even warned Turkey during the course of the war to abstain to deploy troops in the Iraqian Kurdistan, due to the danger of lebanization that this fact could represent. On the other hand, the postponement of the bilateral financial aid that Washington provides to Turkey has not contributed either to the improvement of relations. Both in Turkey and in the United States the debate on the need to reframe the bilateral relations has been opened, since their interests in the new resulting strategic configuration of the pre-emptive strike against Iraq do not coincide.
FTAA and integration processes in the Western Hemisphere (until the 16th of July of 2003)
In the Summit of the Americas hold in Miami in December 1994 the presidents of 34 countries of the Western Hemishpere decided to start up a process of progressive elimination of the trade and investment barriers, known as Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) whose negotiations should conclude in January 2005. On the basis of the agreement reached in March 1998 in the fourth ministerial meeting in Costa Rica (Declaration of San Jose) the FTAA negotiations started formally in April 1998, during the Second Summit of the Americas in Santiago of Chile. The third Summit of the Américas, celebrated in April 2001 in Quebec, was the frame to adopt fundamental decisions for the process of FTAA negotiations, that culminated with the publication of the first FTAA agreement draft in July 2001. In the seventh ministerial summit hold in Quito a second version of the agreement draft was approved, on which the goverments work at present. In this context some processes of subregional integration are being developped as well, as the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Central American Secretariat of Economic Integration (SIECA), the Andean Community or The Common Market of Cono Sur (MERCOSUR). The Argentine crisis, that was felt as a confidence crisis in many Latin American economies, has contributed to create an opposition climate to FTAA among the public opinion of many Latin American countries, who feel this process as an instrument of the United States to flood their markets with products "Made in the USA", when trying to integrate economies with so different levels of development. Thus, some Latin American leaders have openly requested a postponement for the conclusion in the definitive agreement. Parallelly, while the MERCOSUR and the Andean Community persecute the establishment of an integrated South American space before the 31st December 2003, the countries of the SIECA and the United States are embarked in a process for the attainment of a Free Trade Agreement. In this directory of links you will be able to learn more on the advances and difficulties in the American integration processes.
Solomon Islands: Ethnic violence in South Pacific (until the 08th of July of 2003)
Solomon Islands, with a population of approximately 450,000, is an archipelago stretching over 840 miles in the South Pacific. There are six major and approximately 992 smaller islands, attolls and reefs. After the Second World War, much of the development in the Solomons concentrated around the capital, Honiara, based in the island of Guadalcanal. The Malaitans, inhabitants of the Malaita island, who comprise about one-third of the population, generally dominate the elected government and the business sector around Honiara. Over the 19th century, many persons from the poor, heavily populated island of Malaita have settled on Guadalcanal where the resentment they engendered culminated in violence. During 1999 ethnic violence perpetrated by some indigenous residents of Guadalcanal against immigrants from Malaita led to several deaths, kidnapings, and the flight of nearly 23,000 persons from Guadalcanal. Two armed rival factions have emerged in the crisis. The Isatabu Freedom Movement (IFM) claims indigenous rights to land on Guadalcanal and wants the Malaitans to move out of the capital, Honiara. The Malaita Eagles Force (MEF) is fighting for land and buildings left behind in Honiara by Malaitans who have fled Guadalcanal. In this context, on October 15th 2000 the Townsville peace agreement was signed, though its implementation has not been fulfilled. For that reason in the meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum hold in Sydney on June 30th, an Australian interposition force deployment was decided. Learn more on that conflict in the links provided.
Difficulties for the pacification of Afghanistan (until the 01st of July of 2003)
The difficulties to pacify the post taliban Afghanistan, where warlords and taliban groups still control several regions, shows the complexity of the conflict and the problems that entail to reconstruct a country devastated by more than 20 years of confrontation, and where war has become a modus vivendi. At the moment even Kabul, controlled by the Government of Karzai, is divided in two factions: the pro American faction, represented by the allied troops and those loyal to president Hamid Karzai, and the pro Russian and pro Iranian faction, represented by the minister of Defense, general Qasim Fahim and the Northern Alliance forces. Both are in the process of reinforcing their basis to start off from a force position when next October Loya Jirga (Assembly of the Tribes) will be summoned. This Loya Jirga must put an end to the transitional government that rules Afghanistan since the fall of the taliban regime. The groups of resistance to interim government, formed basically by taliban regrouped in the Pakistani border and by some warlords (among who the pro-Iranian Gulbudin Hekmatyar, leader of the Hezb-i-Islami party that in spite of its bloody opposition to taliban promotes the restoration of an Islamic regime) will play probably an important role in the future Loya Jirga. In fact Pakistani and American intelligence services have maintained contacts with taliban leaders to try to reach an agreement on the future pacification of the country.
Iran within the post Saddam international framework (until the 24th of June of 2003)
Last week a student revolt, that resolved with up to 250 arrests, exploded in Iran asking the government for democratic reforms. The explicit support of US president Bush to the demonstrators, who protested against the most conservative sectors of the Islamic Republic headed by spiritual guide Ali Jamenei, has been responded by the formal protest of Tehran that blames Washington to interfere the Iranian internal affairs. The inclusion of Iran in the "Axis of Evil" by Bush in January 2002, based both in the support provided by Tehran to groups such as Hamas considered terrorists and in the development of a nuclear program that would enable the Islamic Republic to produce nukes, has produced since a constant deterioration of the bilateral relations. The invasion of Iraq, country with which Iran maintained a devastating war in the 80s, has added one more reason for friction, since the leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, widely supported by Iraqi Shia, maintains strong links with Iran. The Iranian nuclear plan, developed with Russian aid, received an impulse months ago with the discovery of uranium deposits in the country. Warnings of the the International Atomic Energy Agency on the concealment of information by Iran regarding its nuclear plans have been worth a conditioning by the European Union asking Iran to cooperate before signing a commercial agreement with Tehran. With US troops in Afghanistan, Central Asia, Turkey, Iraq and the Persian Gulf, the Iranian regime seems to be the next step in the global war against terrorism.
Political Crisis in Myanmar: Suu Kyi under arrest (until the 17th of June of 2003)
The halting and isolation of 19 members of the Myanmar National League for Democracy among who Aung San Suu Kyi, Nobel Peace prize in 1991, has blocked the hesitant process of political liberalization undertaken a year ago the Military Junta ruling this South-East Asian country. One year back Suu Kyi was freed by the military regime, after remaining under house arrest for 20 months. This fact was shouldered by the international community, that smoothed the sanctions on the Burman government as sample of support to the democratization process. However, the arrests and the wave of repression triggered at the end of May (closing of universities and opposition offices included) show the limits of the democratization will of the government. In the internal scope the increasing popularity of Suu Kyi threatens the political control of the country by the 41 years old ruling Military Junta, which in 1990 did not accept the results of the elections won by Suu Kyi. In the international context, the Burman dictatorship has taken advantage of the fact that international attention is focused in the Middle East, and the wave of security and repression hardening measures undertaken by some countries under the international fight against terrorism umbrella. However, neither the United Nations, nor the United States nor the European Union have ignored the situation in the country. Actually Razali Ismail, representative of the UN General Secretary, met this morning with Suu Kyi (although he was not allowed to reveal where is she retained), in the frame of an urgency visit to Myanmar. On the other hand both the President of the United States and the European Parliament have sent threats in order to resume the sanctions if the political situation does not improve. Also the human rights organizations have had a fundamental role in the denounce of the violations committed by the Burman military regime, specially against some ethnic minorities.
Russian Foreign Policy on the 300 Anniversary of Saint Petersburg (until the 10th of June of 2003)
The third centenary celebration of the foundation of Saint Petersburg gathered high representatives of more than 40 countries in this Baltic Russian city. Within the frame of these events president Putin hold on May 30th the Commonwealth of Independent States Summit, where issues on the economic cooperation, the circulation of people, and the antiterrorist fight were approached. That same day president Putin met with Japanese prime minister Koizumi, with whom debated on economic subjects, the nuclear proliferation in the Korean peninsula and the pending problem of the Southern Kurile Islands since the end of II World War. On May 31st, the 11th Russia-European Union Summit was hold. The debates were centered in the question of visas, the future of the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad within EU territory from 2004, human rights and the cooperation in economic and security matters. US president Bush also attended Saint Petersburg summits, and maintained a bilateral encounter with Putin to deal with the recostruction of Iraq, the fight to international terrorism, the control of nuclear proliferation and the investments of US companies in the obsolete oil sector of the Russian Federation. Saint Petersburg represented, actually, a general review of the Russian foreign policy in the international system issued from the postwar in Iraq, that struggles between its role of great power inherited of the Soviet period and the pressure exerted by other blocks on zones that until the last decade were under their area of influence, like Central Asia or Eastearn Europe.
Israel accepts a conditioned implementation of the Middle East Roadmap (until the 03rd of June of 2003)
The approval by the Israeli government of the Middle East Roadmap proposed by the United States and guaranteed by the UN, the UE and Russia opens new expectations for the attainment of a definitive peace plan in the Middle East. Under the shadow of the conflict in Irak, the growth of the political figure of the recently named Palestinian prime minister Abu Mazen, at the expenses of president Arafat, had been raised like a sine qua non condition by Israel and the United States to impel the peace process. The recognition of the right to exist of a Palestinian State by the Sharon government represents an historical landmark, although it has opened fissures between the parties that compose the Israeli Executive and though it has benn conditioned to the fullfilment by the United States of 14 conditions that remain secret. In spite of these political advances, the situation on the land continues tense, as demonstrate the incursions of the Hebrew army in important zones of West Bank and Gaza Strip, that have been settled with a constant dripping of Palestinian victims. The foreseen meeting between Sharon and Mazen, with the probable attendance of president Bush, could represent a point of flexion in the 55 years old Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the strategic region of the Middle East.
UN Security Council passes Resolution 1483 (until the 27th of May of 2003)
As diplomatic contacts between the UN Security Council members were re-activated immediately after the war of Iraq, the US Secretary of State, Collin Powell, traveled to the Middle East and Europe. As a result of the negotiations the UN Security Council approved on May 24th the 1483 resolution, which represents the legitimation of the British-American occupation of Iraq by the international organism, and ends the almost 13 years old embargo on the Arab country. The resolution, approved by 14 votes (only the representative of Syria was not present in the poll), grants the control on the political and economic reorganization of Iraq to the United States and the United Kingdom. These countries have accepted in return of this recognition a six months prorogation of the Oil for Food Program -which aliviates the pressure on French and Russian companies working in Iraq- alon with a greater role in the countries reconstruction for the United Nations , whose activity in Iraq will not be limited to humanitarian issues. The wave of terrorist attacks has made clear the need to rebuild transatlantic collaboration, although is still too early to say how far this approach will succes.
Offensive of Islamic terrorism in Saudi Arabia (until the 23rd of May of 2003)
The visit of the US Secretary of State, Collin Powell, to Saudi Arabia was preceeded by a violent terror attack in a residential district of Riyadh inhabited basically by foreigners. According to the sources, the attach has left between 34 and 91 deaths. The recent announcement made by the Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, on the withdraw of the US troops based in Saudi Arabia was interpreted like a Washington's gesture towards Riyad, pursuing a reduction of the pressure on the Saudi government by wide sectors of the population opposing the presence of American troops in Saudi soil, but also like a rift between both countries by the disagreements dealing with Iraq, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and oil. The United States, on the other hand, demands a narrow collaboration to Saudi Arabia in the fight against terrorism, even more when has been known that the nine members of the cell that carried out the attack on Monday were on the verge of being disarticulated a week before, but they managed to escape. In spite of the optimist perspective of the Department of State report released in April on the international course of war on terrorism, Al Qaeda and other radical Islamic groups (in Chechenia, the Philippines and Israel) have shown themselves very active in the last days. Both the poor results of the Roadmap to Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the prolongation of the US military presence in Iraq beyond the fall of Saddam Hussein are factors that with no doubt contribute to strengthen those groups.
Détente between India and Pakistan (until the 14th of May of 2003)
At the beginning of this week Pakistani prime minister, Zafarullah Khan Jamali, sent an offer of dialogue to his Indian homologous, Atal Vehari Vajpayee, which includes the interchange of high commissioners, the opening of air, sea and land transports between both countries and the recovery of commercial and sport intiatives within the framework of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The proposal, coincident with the arrival to Islamabad of the American representative Richard Armitage, who will also visit New Dehli, has been received with moderate satisfaction by the Indian government, after 17 months since the rupture of relations in December 2001, in the occasion of the assault carried out by Islamic rebels, supposedly supported by Pakistan, to the parliament of New Dehli. The just started dialogue will deal with three great subjects: border issues (with special attention to the Kashmir question), terrorism and nuclear race. The control of Islamic groups that attack Indian territory from their quarters in Pakistan, specially in the region of Kashmir, is the most controversial point. The easining of relations between India and Pakistan moves away, in the short term, the possibility of a great scale conflict between both Southern Asian countries, that could include the use of nuclear weapons.
Hunger in the world: another mass destruction weapon? (until the 07th of May of 2003)
In mid May the 29ª Session of the Committee on World Food Security meets in Rome, under the auspices of FAO. In an international environment totally overturned to international war on terrorism in which the Bush Administration advocates for the pious conservadurism as the doctrine for international cooperation with developing countries, the objectives marked by the 1996 World Food Summit are far away of being fulfilled. International organisms related to the eradication of hunger in the world base in more than 800 million the people who directly suffer the consequences of endemic hunger, while more than one billion are affected by diseases associated to undernourishment. In this sense, is esteemed that if developing countries could increase 1% their participation in the world exports, 128 million people would succeed to reach acceptable living standars, which in Africa would mean five times more than the addition of all the official aid received from developed countries. Despite not being an underlined issue in the international agenda due to the daily basis of these facts, the international community should not be accustomed to the daily death of 30,000 children by problems related to undernourishment.
Presidential Elections in Argentina (until the 30th of April of 2003)
The Argentine presidential elections to be held on April 27th are the first ones since the restoration of democracy in 1983 where none of the candidates obtains more than 20% of the vote intention. The crisis of the political and economic system has transformed the political map of the country, with a "radicalismo" in the heat of a deep crisis since the landslide of the De La Rua government and a "justicialismo" fragmented in three candidacies, one of them headed by the former president Carlos S. Menem. The lack of solutions provided by the political class to face the consequences of the worst financial crisis in Argentine history has generated an extended popular displeasure towards the classic parties and an increase of poverty. In the external dimension, the Argentine crisis last year has contributed to a great extent to paralyze the process of regional integration in the MERCOSUR, and has influenced decisively the economic results of the Latin American regional set. Any resulting government will have as a priority the fight against poverty and the conclusion of agreements with international financial organisms that allow the country to surpass a crisis that has forced millions of Argentineans to look for alternative forms of social and economic organization.
Athens Informal European Council (until the 23rd of April of 2003)
On April 16th, the same day when the provisional government of Iraq was constituted, the Government and Chiefs of State of the 15 European Union member countries and those of the 10 countries that will join it in 2004 hold in Athens the summit in which the greater extension of the UE since the beggining of the European unification process has been sealed. Slovenia, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Malta and Cyprus conclude therefore a long process of negotiation and application of structural reforms to adapt as far as possible to the social, economic and legal frame of the European Union in views to their next accession. The meeting in Athens, which was attended by the UN General Secretary, also served to reach a consensus on the defense of the role that the UN should play within the reconstruction of Iraq in the aftermarth of the "Operation Iraqi Freedom". This agreement reached by France, Germany, United Kingdom and Spain does not hide the wounds opened in the EU as a result of the divergences in the occasion of the war in Iraq. Extended Europe will gather more than 450 million inhabitants and will be, by the volume of merchandise, the most important commercial block in the world.
The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome switches on international health alarms (until the 19th of April of 2003)
Early in March the Communicable Diseases Surveillance & Response Office of the World Health Organization alerted on the detection of a new disease outbreak in the Chinese Guangdong region and Hong Kong city. This disease, transmitted by a coronavirus, causes the classic symptoms of pneumonia, although it resists the classic treatments. The WHO defines it as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (or Atypical Pneumonia), and has warned the worldwide sanitary authorities on the danger of this virus. Although it does not present a high mortality rate, its morbidity (that is, the infection rate) remains remarkable. The epidemic outbreak began in China in November 2002, although Beijing did not inform on the situation until February 2003. Since then the SARS has extended to Southeast Asia (specially Vietnam, Singapur, Thailand and Malaysia), Canada, United States and some European Union countries, and is becoming an issue of concern for Eastern and Southeast Asian economies.
US Warns Iran and Syria on the Iraqi conflict (until the 07th of April of 2003)
Started the 3rd week since the beginning of the attacks to Iraq, the number of civilian victims has dramatically increased in the last days to more than 600 people. This fact shows that although the Bush Administration has tried to convince the public opinion that technological superiority was going to allow a "clean" and fast war, this type of war simply does not exist. The expected rise of the Shiite majority in Southern Iraq, as happened in 1991, has not taken place, and some analysts foresee a possible Vietnamization of the Iraqian conflict. The warnings recently sent to Iran and Syria by the Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, and the Secretary of State, Collin Powell, requiring them to abstain from any intervention in Iraq, are symptomatic of the serious destabilizing effects of the stagnation of a conflict whose roots lay in the new US defense and foreign policy doctrine, summarized in the report "Rebuilding America's Defenses". The warning to Syria, accused by the United States to facilitate material for military use to Iraq, has received a forceful answer of Damascus, where as in Bagdad Arab nationalism is very strong, and has put on alert the Arab League. On the other hand the United States requires Iran to stop its nuclear program and to forbid the entrance in Iraq from Iranian territory of the Badr Corps (Shiite Iraqi combatants linked to the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq), who unlike Kurdish pesh merga militias the United States considers enemies. The application of the principle of the preemptive war within the framework of the new US National Security Strategy has represented a the definitive breaking up of the UN centered international system issued from World War II.
Kurdistan in the Middle East geopolitical future (until the 02nd of April of 2003)
Kurdistan, a very important strategic zone distributed by the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres among the present territories of Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Armenia and Azerbaijan is mainly inhabited by an Indo-European people of the North-Western Iranian group. From Kurdish territory a great part of the Middle East hydric resources can be easily controlled, and its subsoil hides 1/3 of the Iraqian petroleum reserves and the practical totality of the modest Turkish production of crude. Once the war in Iraq has started, one of the greater geostrategic challenges of the conflict in its immediate later phase will be the definition of the Iraqian Kurdistan statute. Enjoying a wide autonomy since the zones of aerial exclusion were decreed in 1991, the Democratic Party of Kurdistan and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan are the main parties whose militias, known as "pesh merga" (those that face death) have controlled the region and have established an autonomous government. Considering the precedent of the attack with chemical weapons by Saddam's army in the town of Halabja at the late 80's, the Kurds are living with special fear the effects of the present war. The United States have chosen to play the Kurd card, supporting the pesh merga with bombings on the Iraqi positions and, mainly, in the territory controlled by the terrorist group Answar ul-Islam linked to Al-Qaeda, in Northeastern Iraq. However, Turkey, that for decades has been fighting the Kurds of the Workers Party of Kurdistan (PKK) in the Southeast of the country, fears that a big wave of refugees coming from Iraq desestabilizes its precarious economy, and aggravates further the Kurd issue face to a possible independence of Iraqian Kurdistan, wich Turkish Kurds would be keen to join. Failed the negotiations between Ankara and Washington for the deployement of US troops in Northern Iraq from Turkish soil, this country has reiterated that it will send its own troops to avoid that the Iraqian crisis affects Turkey irremediably. Iraqian Kurds have yet warned they would open a "war within the war" against the Turks if they decide to do so.
Ultimatum of US president Bush to Sadam Hussein (until the 26th of March of 2003)
In a solemn speech, president Bush presented on March 17th an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein, according which he must leave Iraq in a maximum term of 48 hours. Since that moment the United States will consider theirselves legitimized to undertake a military action against Iraq at any time. In the meeting hold on Sunday among the presidents of the United States and Spain and British prime minister in the Azores islands, these leaders decided not to present their joint proposal of resolution in the Security Council, face to the French announcement to exert its right to veto on any decision that authorizes an immediate military solution to the crisis without considering more time for the UN sponsored inspections. This position had yet been expressed in the joint France-Russi-Germany memorandum presented to the UN Secretary General in late February. A counterproposal of Chile, one of the six countries of the Security Council that had not decided their vote if a new resolution was passed, was rejected by the White House spokesman a few minutes after being presented on 14th March. Facing the announcement of the imminent military operation announced by president Bush, Koffi Annan has ordered all the United Nations employees and dependent personnel to leave Iraq, including those working in humanitarian mission, whereas the border of Iraq with Syria begins to be collapsed by the arrival of hundreds of refugees fleeing from the start of the hostilities. In Kuwait the demilitarized strip in the border with Iraq was taken by marines some days ago, whereas in the Northern front, in Turkey, the parliament decides on Tuesday, three days after the relief of Gul by Erdogan as the prime minister, if it allows the use of the Turkish soil by US military to launch an offensive on Iraq. This unilateral decision of the United States, seized with the support of a small group of countries but without the permission of the United Nations, represents the materialization of a rupture of the international system, that has been developing since 11 S.
Malta accepts in referendum to join the European Union (until the 18th of March of 2003)
On 9th March Malta became the first candidate country to join the European Union that has celebrated a referendum for its adhesion, which will be followed by another one in Slovenia at the end of March. Although 54% of the voices have been in favor of integration, almost 44% have voted against, being Malta the second country of among those that have celebrated a referendum of these characteristics with smaller acceptance to his entrance in the EU, only behind Sweden where only 52% of the votes were for "yes". Actually the referendum has been polarized by the opposed positions of the two main parties, something atypical in other EU countries where wide consensus among major representative political forces exists on the entailment to the European Union. The Nationalist Party, in the government, has campaigned for "yes", whereas the Labour Party has defended the negative vote and his leader has even expressed their will to revoke the result of the referendum if they win the legislative polls foreseen for April. With a participation that has reached 91% of the census in a country in which the mobilization of the electorate is traditionally high, Malta has initiated a process of referendums that will meet 9 out of the 10 candidate countries and will conclude on 20th September in Latvia.
Extraordinary Summit of the Arab League: the Arab world face to the Iraqi issue (until the 11th of March of 2003)
The extraordinary summit of the Arab League hold last week in the Egyptian balneary of Shar el Sheikh has underlined the existence of three divergent positions among the Arab countries regarding Iraq. A small group of countries headed by Kuwait and the Arab Emirates is in favor of an immediate withdraw of Saddam Hussein, for considering him a threat to regional stability. In this sense pointed the Arab Emirates initiative, that proposed the exile of the Iraqian dictator and his closer collaborators within a term of 15 days. In the opposite side laid countries like Syria or Libya, that in spite of maintaining uneasy relations with the Bagdad regime, see in the US intervention an act of aggression to the Arab world, with the undeclared target to gain the geostrategic control of the region and its oil resources. The 3rd position, called moderate, was the one finally adopted at the end of the summit, and it is defended by Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan among other countries. These countries plead basically for an intermediate solution, aligning with the French-German and Russian proposal (France and Russia have already announced their veto to the proposal of resolution presented by United Kingdom, the United States and Spain) considering that any armed intervention must necessarily be supported by the UN Security Council. The Arab governments are under a strong pressure by their public opinion, as well as by the rising islamist opposition fed by the comparative offense produced by the Israeli breach of the UN Security Council resolutions concerning the Palestinian issue. These Arab governments have been able to reach a basic agreement that has not hiden the great divergences existing among them by the nature of their regimes and on such important issues of the international agenda as the Iraqian question.
Spain in the current international conjuncture (until the 05th of March of 2003)
The intense diplomatic agenda of the Spanish president, Jose Maria Aznar, in the last days has brought him to maintain meetings with Bush, Chirac, Blair, Berlusconi, John Paul II, Vicente Fox and contacts with Putin and Ricardo Lagos among other world leaders. Spain, the second European Union more extensive country and fifth economy, has increased its international presence in the occasion of the entrance as a temporary member to the UN Security Council. However, the foreign policy directives undertaken by the Popular Party’s government from one year ago to present, mean a breaking of the priorities in the lines of continuity of the Spanish foreign policy since the transition to democracy, at the end of the 70’s: Europe, the Mediterranean and Ibero America. These changes have been deeply influenced by the impact of the September 11th terror attacks on the in the international relations system, with the set up of an antiterrorist world-wide coalition headed by the United States and actively supported by Spain, along with the might of the Asian continent, that drove in 2000 to the adoption of a Framework Plan for the Asia Pacific region by the Spanish government. The Spain’s positioning as a convinced ally of the United States and the United Kingdom on the Iraqian question has materialized in the presentation of a joint resolution in the Security Council. This fact is affecting directly to the Spanish relations with the French-German axis, and even the own internal EU evolutions. The maintenance of the divergences between the EU members on the problem of the Iraqian disarmament has shown the reduced credibility of the agreement reached in the Extraordinary European Council of Brussels on February 17th. The alliance with Washington, that mediated in the Spanish-Moroccan crisis by the small barren island of Perejil, has caused an approach with Morocco. The return of the ambassadors and the meetings between the Foreign Ministers, Benaissa and Palacio, have opened a new dialogue channel just when before next summer a new resolution of the UN Security Council on the Western Sahara issue will have to be adopted. Concerning the Spanish relations with Latin America, the attacks perpetrated against the Spanish embassy and the office of Colombian interests in Caracas, few days after ignited declarations of president Chavez against Aznar and Uribe, are attributable among other factors to the distrust that generates the current change of the Spanish foreign policy within a region where the model of liberal democracy is in crisis. The government, nevertheless, must face serious internal problems, like the strong opposition of up to 75% of the public opinion, that disapproves its present policy towards Iraq, as showed the rallies on February 15th, that mobilized more than 4 million Spaniards. Also the catastrophe of the oil tanker Prestige in front of the coasts of Galicia has originated a mobilization of the affected civil society around the Platform Nunca Mais, critic with the action of the government, and to a strong awareness of the Spanish society on environmental issues. Dealing with the Basque Country, the hardening of the antiterrorist law and its strict application by the state have lead to the ilegalization of the pro-ETA Batasuna party, and to the closing of the only newspaper fully published in euskera language, under the accusation to be comprised in the economic framework of ETA. The police fight against this terrorist organization has effective results, but it is not sufficient to solve a problem with deep social roots. In this scrambled social-political context, in March municipal elections are hold. They can provide useful indicators on the electoral wearing down that has experienced the government in the last months, in views to the legislative elections of March 2004.
World-wide public opinion expresses its opposition to a preventive war on Iraq (until the 27th of February of 2003)
On February 15th a big wave of rallies against an unilateral attack of the United States against Iraq, made clear that the economic globalization has yielded the passage to the social one. The new information and communication technologies, and specially the Internet, allowed the coordination of the pacifist movement to a planetary level, and brought to the streets more than 10 million citizens to demonstrate against a preventive war whose arguments given by the Bush Administration do not convince the world-wide public opinion. Indeed, the debate opened as a result of the new US national security strategy, that justifies and anticipates the use of force against those countries that can suppose a threat to the US or their allies interests in the base of not always totally confirmed indications, opens an unprecedented breach within the international law and is an expression of the feeling of vulnerability that has settled between the North American society since 2001 September 11th. This issue has opened an important debate within the international relations analysts community. The acceptance of the preventive war principle supposes with no doubt a split of the current international legality, whose generalization could open the Box of Pandora by the proliferation of conflicts based on subjective threats that can entail. We offer a series of links to research centers on international relations and armaments proliferation, through which a monitoring of this interesting and important debate can be done.
War on Iraq opens an unprecedented crisis among NATO allies (until the 19th of February of 2003)
In February 6th, a day after the appearance of the US Secretary of State Collin Powell to the United Nations to bring proofs on the Iraqi breach of the UN Security Council resolutions dealing with an active cooperation in their disarmament, the United States displayed a proposal to their NATO allies in order to activate the emergency plans to defend Turkey (member State of NATO) of a possible Iraqian attack. This proposal, reinforced on 10 February when Turkey invoked article IV, has been rejected by France, Belgium and Germany until all the diplomatic channels are exhausted in the Iraqi issue. This situation has opened the greater crisis in the history of NATO since its creation in April 1949, and immersed in a quest of a new identity since the end of the Cold War. The report that on 14 February will present to the UN Security Council the Chief of the UN Observers, Hans Blix, and the General Director of the IAEA, Mohamed el Baradei, after their recent visit to Iraq, will mark probably a point of flexion in the outcome of the crisis. The staging of the differences between the allies of NATO, however, puts in evidence the divergent line that in the matter of foreign policy has been opened between the "Old Europe" (in textual words of Donald Rumsfeld) and the United States since the terrorist attacks of 11-S. Within the intensification of the diplomatic activity framework of these last days, the visit of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to Paris and the joint declaration of Russia, France and Germany regarding the necessity of a new UN Security Council resolution for the beginning of a possible attack to Iraq, approaches Moscow to the French-German positions. On the other hand, with almost 3/4 of the European public opinion against the war, the division generated between European Union governments on the Iraqian question has been materialized in a letter of support to the aggressive American policy towards Iraq signed by 8 European leaders (among them Blair, Berlusconi and Aznar) This fact put in evidence once again how far is still Europe to speak with an single voice in the international fora.
Conflict in Cote d'Ivoire: Ethnicity and inheritance of colonialism (until the 12th of February of 2003)
The night of September 18th 2002 a military insurrection in Cote d'Ivoire brings out the weakness of the political structures of the country, considered the most stable one in Western Africa. The Ivorian population is divided in four great ethnic groups (Akan in the Southeast, Krou in the Southwest, Mandes in the Northwest and Volta in the Northeast), composed as well by more than 60 tribes. The political elite, made up basically by the Akan (the majority ethnic group), developed from the beggining of the 90's the concept of "ivoirité", on which has been based the Ivorian national identity in the last decade. Actually this concept hides a dominion of ethnicity as a determining factor of the political system, and as an instrument to exclude other rivals from competitive policy on the basis of ethnic criteria to consider them "foreigners". On the other hand, the fall of cocoa prices in the 90's (Cote d'Ivoire is the first world-wide exporter), caused a serious economic breakdown that worsened the political and institutional fracture. The mediation attempts of the Economic Community of Western African States during November did not fulfilled the expected results. France, the former metropolis that presided over the UN Security Council in January, forced the Agreement of Linas Marcoussis signed between the rebellious groups and the government of Laurent Gbagbo in January 24th 2003. At his arrival to Abidjan, however, president Gbagbo found the opposition of the Army to accept that agreement, and declared that it only represented the basis to start peace conversations. Amid accusations of interference of other countries in the region, specially Burkina Faso and Liberia (some of whose ethnic groups are also represented in Cote d'Ivoire), a real risk of outbreak of an open conflict between the North and the South of the country exist. This fact would hardly affect the already punished region of Western Africa. Like in so many other conflicts in the African continent, the inheritance of colonialism, which created artificial states whose borders do not respond to ethnic realities, makes clear itself once again.
Sharon's Victory in the Israel Polls (until the 04th of February of 2003)
The elections of Tuesday 28th in Israel have resulted in a clear victory of Sharon's Likud, that doubles in benches the Labor leaded b