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Topical issues of previous weeks

European Union Energy Policy (until the 30th 2006f October 2006f 2006)
The European Union, which is still trying to overcome the Constitutional crisis, is facing a new negotiating challenge: the need to standardize the European Union’s energy markets. This is the aim of the latest Summits held by the 25 members, which deal with the disputes among large European energy companies that are trying to achieve a relative hegemony in the energy market beyond their national borders. Nevertheless, we are still far from reaching a true free trade energy market within the EU, due to the strong economic nationalism and the protectionism that hampers the development of big Pan-European energy companies. Today, half of the energy that powers Europe comes from foreign markets, mostly Russia. Brussels forecasts this percentage will rise up to 70% in the short term.
Self-determination of Gibraltar (until the 11th 2006f April 2006f 2006)
Gibraltar is the last colony in Europe, a last trace of the colonizing period that redesigned the Old Continent during the XVIII and XIX centuries. This territory is a fortress located in a strategic position of the Iberian Peninsula, with a rich military past and a deeply rooted national identification of the Gibraltarian as British citizens. This rock, which has been a disputed issue between Spain and the United Kingdom over the last decades, fell under British sovereignty with the Utrecht Treaty ending the Spanish Secession War in the XVIII century. It is important to know the fundamental clause of the Treaty: if the British ever renounce to their sovereignty, the rock shall be offered in first place to Spain. This is important now because the Gibraltarian are questioning their national identity and are debating about a reform of the 1969’ Constitution. The Governor of Gibraltar, Pedro Caruana, has led the delegation that met with the British authorities in London to discuss the self-determination of the Gibraltarian people, who show a lack of affection towards Spain, as proved the results of the 1969’ Referendum. On its side, the Spanish government is pleased with the negotiations’ results for British government guarantees the fulfilment of all bilateral agreements, while Caruana is far from achieving the recognition of the self-determiniation right, even thought Gibraltar already enjoys a very extended level of autonomy.
Elections in Israel (until the 27th 2006f March 2006f 2006)
The electoral campaign of Israel’s general elections, to be held on March 28th, has started. Even thought some 30 political groups participate in the elections, most of the votes will be distributed among the three main parties: the Likud, lead by former Prime Minister Netanyahu, Kadima, established by Sharon in 2005 as formal scission of the above said party and finally the Labour Party. People’s willingness to vote seems to be high and polls point at Kadima’s victory, party lead by the interim Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert. The elections results are going to be greatly influenced by the results of the last Palestinian elections that brought Hamas to power.
Argentina chairs the UN Security Council (until the 20th 2006f March 2006f 2006)
Argentina assumes the monthly presidency of the UN Security Council. During its term the Presidency will have to deal with some hot issues: Haiti, Iran, Darfur, Afganistán, Iraq and Kosovo. The Council shall seek a peaceful solution to the complicated situation in Haiti, it also has to closely follow up Iran’s nuclear proliferation controversy and the final decision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on whether it sends the issue to the Security Council. Sudan’s armed conflict in Darfur (ethnic cleansing) shall also be discussed to take urgent measures in order to avoid further violence and displacements. Finally the Council shall supervise Kosovo’s secession process, a region that has been under UN control since 1999. NATO participation in ISAF operation (Afghanistan) and the future of Iraq shall also be treated during the Argentinean presidency.
Physical abuses in Iraq (until the 10th 2006f March 2006f 2006)
The publication of one video with British soldiers beating ad nauseam some young Iraqis has raised concerns again in the civilized world. Soldiers were not exposed by a hidden journalist, on the contrary it was a member of its own squadron who filmed the hiding, adding to the registration its delighted comments to the already disgusting images.
Symbols’ war (until the 02nd 2006f March 2006f 2006)
The cartoons satirizing the sacred image of Mahomet published in a Danish newspaper have triggered a wave of protests in the Islamic countries. Flags burning and the violence against North European countries in Syria, Iran and Jordan have focused the attention of the public opinion. Some Muslims have considered the publication of these cartoons as an offence to their culture and have taken the streets to protest against what they also consider an attack on its religion.
Ukraine, a country in the hands of clans (until the 23rd 2006f February 2006f 2006)
Written by MIGUEL YBARRA OTÍN and OLGA SKOMOROSHCHENKO Politics and business go together in Ukraine. Three clans closely linked to power own the biggest companies and industries, the media and even football teams, they are the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Kiev clans. According to opposition leader Víktor Yúshchenko “50% of Ukrainian economy is hidden”. Yuri Kostenko, former Environmental minister during Kuchma’s government, supports Yúshchenko and guarantees that “one third of state budget is stolen; a forth of GDP doesn’t reach budget; clans don’t pay taxes and state wealth is sold at symbolic prices”. Furthermore, he reports the use of 2 million dollars of state budget to finance Yanukovich’s campaign. The Donetsk clan is headed by the prime minister Yanukovich (who went to prison twice, in 1968 and in 1972, both times for aggression) and by the businessmen Serhy Taruta and Rinat Ajmetov, who with 3.500 million dollars is the richest man in Ukraine. They manage 139 big firms, mines, iron and steel plants, metallurgic and chemical plants, agricultural and food factories, banks, the media, football teams, etc. Ajmetov, owner of the Shakhtar Donetsk team “imposed Yanukovich’s candidature as president to Kuchma” affirms Andriy Derkach, reporter of the Ukrainian News agency. The Dnipropetrovsk clan is managed by Víktor Pinchuk, a Jew who is Kuchma’s son-in-law and MP of the Party of Businessmen. His business links him to Bush father, George Soros and Henry Kissinger. The Polish weekly magazine Wprost reported in October 2002 that his wealth amounted to 1.300 million dollars, but over the last year it grew to 2.500. This growth is due to the purchase of industries sold by the government at discount prices: the iron and steel plant Krivorishtal, one of the country’s biggest, was sold a few months ago to Ajmetov and Pinchuk; together they made the lowest offer, 800 million dollars, against the 1.200 million offered by the Russian company Severstal and the 1.500 offered by the British-US consortium LNM-US Steel. The Kiev clan is managed by two good friends and business partners: Víktor Medvedchuk and Grigory Surkis. Medvedchuk, leader of the United Social Democratic Party (SDPU-O), is Kuchma’s Chief of Staff; his wealth his valued more than 800 million dollars. Currently, Surkis is the president of Ukrainian Football Federation and, before handing over the position to his brother Igor, he was president of Dínamo of Kiev. The clan manages, among other, the television 1+1, whose reporters refuse to broadcast in protest against censorship. Ajmetov, Pinchuk and Medvedchuk are the three richest men of Ukraine. Although Kuchma did not represent any of the three clans, he kept an equilibrium between the three. Kostenko believes that this equilibrium will break if Yanukovich is president: “he would turn Ukraine into Donetsk’s clan, which would lead to the law of power and not to the power of the law.”
Bush presented the Washington Declaration on Sharon’s Plan in a complicated context. (until the 30th 2004f November 2004f 2004)
April has turned into the bloodiest month in Irak’s “postwar”. Around 1.000 Iraqis and 100 US soldiers have been killed in the past 20 days. Today three main battlefronts are open. One is in Faluya, where most of the killing has occurred after the assassination of 3 US contractors. Another front is the siege of the holy city of Najaf, where the shia religious leader, Al Sadr, wanted by the US forces because of his implication in the killing of another religious leader, has found shelter. Finally, on the third front, there is the kidnapping issue. Around 40 civil foreigners from 12 nationalities are kept under rebel forces. The hostage crisis is becoming a great obstacle in the Iraq’s reconstruction efforts, and has intensified the debate in the hostage’s countries. Even if a peaceful negotiation has been undertaken to solve the situation in all these fronts, last events show how stability in Iraq is far from reached. A violent solution in any of these fronts, and especially in Najaf, would jeopardize the stabilization process. The ineffectiveness shown by the Iraqui’s security forces and the widespread violence could reduce the importance of the transfer of power to Iraq’s provisional government due in June 30th. If the handover is done under these circumstances of violence the new government’s dependence on US military forces will be so evident that it could reduce its legitimacy. On the other hand, the International Community still has not recovered from the Madrid’s 11-M terrorist attacks. Spain, Honduras and Dominican Republic have ordered their troops to go home. November elections in the US could polarize public opinion on the Iraq issue. In this difficult context, through the Washington Declaration President Bush has recently given full support to Sharon’s Plan for unilateral disengagement. Bush has described as unrealistic the possibility to go back to 1949’s borders, legitimating the stay of some of Israel’s colonies in the West Bank and breaking the US’s traditional foreign policy stand on the issue. A few days later, Israel’s forces killed, Dr. Rantisi, the new leader of Hamas. This is adding fuel to the fundamentalism’s fire. Intensification of the Middle East conflict could have severe destabilization consequences on the international system and world peace.
ATTACKS AGAINST THE SHIA COMMUNITY (until the 22nd 2004f April 2004f 2004)
It isn’t the first time that Shia are stroked in Iraq. Nevertheless, terrorist attacks, which took place on March 2nd, the bloodiest day since the end of the war, are especially relevant due to the date and places chosen and to the deaths it caused, 184 pilgrims killed and 430 injured. Other 47 people were killed in Pakistan. Attacks happened during a very important holiday for the Shia (10% of Islam’s World community), the Ashuria day, when this community celebrates its schism from the major Islamic school, the Sunnite. Terrorist attacks stroke Shia’s holy places, around and inside the Hussein’s mosque in Kerbala and Al-Kazem’s in Baghdad. Besides, these attacks coincided with the day the official announcement of the new constitution was to be made. This interim constitution, agreed between the Council of Government of Iraq and Bremer’s Provisional Administration, should rule the transitional period, the end of the occupation (June 30th) and the elections process (early 2005). Attacks have shadowed and put off the official announcement of the agreement reached on the Constitution. The provisional Constitution will declare Islam as the official religion and a source of law (not the only one), it will establish a federal system and guarantee women’s political representation. Abu Musab al-Zaraqawi has been pointed out as the mind behind these terrorist attacks. This Jordan man is said to be linked to Al-Qaeda, organization based on Sunni Wahabist precepts. Suicide killing methods, still to be confirmed, would support these accusations. US information services have recently published an Al-Zaraqawi’s supposed letter they intercepted, where he describes the Shia Community as a fundamental enemy for its “collaboration” with the occupation forces. Nevertheless, a letter purporting to come from al-Qaeda denied on march 3rd any role in anti-Shia explosions. The letter, signed "Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades (al-Qaeda)", was sent to the London-based al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper. Anyhow attacks reveal the Civil War menace and put in danger Iraqi’s sovereignty recovery agenda. Somehow it seems paradoxical that, on one hand, Shias political representatives face Sunnites counterparts to defend Islam’s role in the future state, and in the other hand, foreign Islamic fundamentalists linked to Al-Qaeda supposedly attack them.
Haiti's polítical crisis (until the 03rd 2004f March 2004f 2004)
Protests against Jean-Bertrand Aristide have intensified and caused about 42 deaths in the last 5 days. The Artibonite Revolutionary Resistance Front occupied Gonaïves, country’s fourth city, on February 5th. Another dozen towns have fallen under the control of heterogeneous rebel groups that demand Aristide’s resignation. The government, which lacks of an army since 1994, has regained 3 towns and avoided the widespread of more local uprisings through the mobilization of its 5.000 policemen and pro-government armed groups. Opposition’s claims date back to presidential and legislative elections of the year 2000 that led to the reelection of Aristide and that international observers labeled as rigged. Since then, negotiations between government and opposition hosted by the OAS and the CARICOM haven’t produced any concrete result. The causes of the intensification of the conflict respond to 3 main factors. First of all, the fragile situation of the poorest country of America (80% below poverty level) has worsen because of the negative influence that fraud accusations have had on international donors, on foreign investors and on internal business climate. Secondly, the Artibonite Revolutionary Resistance Front, former “Cannibal Army”, changed side joining the opposition’s forces on September 2003, due to its suspicions about government’s involvement in the killing of its former leader. In third place, parliament has recently finished its term and, due to disagreements on the Electoral Committee and to political instability, Aristide has not yet fixed a date for legislative elections creating and institutional void and forcing the Government to rule by decree. The main opposition parties have rejected armed uprisings and ask for a political solution. Nevertheless the future of the crisis remains uncertain due to the heterogeneity of the upraised armed groups, to people’s discontent, and to government’s weak security corps.
Sharon announces his plan to evacuate all Gaza Strip settlements (until the 12th 2004f February 2004f 2004)
In an interview granted to Haaretz on February 2nd, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon announced his plan to evacuate all Gaza Strip settlements. The plan, which would affect 7.000 people from 17 settlements, has great symbolism and political relevance. The announcement has been made one month prior to Sharon’s official visit to the US. Lately, bilateral relations between theses countries have cooled due to the rising of the separation wall and the effects that this has had on the Road Map. Ehud Olmert, Israeli Vice-premier had already presented to Dick Cheney and Collin Powell some aspects of this plan in an interview held in Washington last Thursday. The announcement surprised the international and, above all the national community. It has not been welcomed by the settlers, who promised mobilizations, and by the nationalist and conservative parties of the government’s coalition, including high representatives of Sharon’s party. Government’s coalition partners are angry because the plan has been announced without prior internal consensus, and they threat to block it. Sharon, whose position is already weakened by the accusations that link him to a bribery case, has responded to these critics by proposing a national referendum on the evacuation issue, which according to opinion polls would favor the plan. On the other hand Palestinian authorities are skeptical about the announcement, and they fear, as some experts said, that it is a maneuver to please the US, to cut critics on the separation wall, and to be able to consolidate settlement’s presence in the West Bank. According to these experts, Sharon wants to carry on unilaterally its separation plan as an alternative to the stagnation of the Road Map. Anyhow, if the plan gets through government’s internal opposition, settlement’s evacuation is not due to be completed before 12 months.
World Economic Forum & World Social Forum, two ways to look at the World (until the 05th 2004f February 2004f 2004)
For the fourth year in a row two different ways to face globalization have been expressed through these Forums. 11-S widely altered and put to silence this dichotomy. Now with a relative stabilization of the International System this issue comes back to the headlines. On one hand, the World Social Forum (WSF), which in its earlier editions took place in Porto Alegre, has been held this year in Mumbai, India from January 16th to 20th. The meeting succeeded to gather together 120.000 participants. Nevertheless, the organizers have received some critics from those sectors that ask for a more active and radical agenda to face social problems which have been wildly shown through the confrontation with India’s social reality. In this sense Mumbai will open an internal debate on the reorganization of the WSF to allow to turn into actions the theories that are discussed each year. On the other hand, the World Economic Forum, once again held in Davos winter resort in Switzerland, will take place from January 21st to 25th. This year the forum is entitled: “Working together towards prosperity and peace”. The meeting of the ministries of commerce, where they will try to unblock the Doha negotiations after Cancun’s failure, will be one the most important events of this year’s Forum.
Aftermath of the World Summit on the Information Society (until the 23rd 2004f January 2004f 2004)
The World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) took place in Geneva from December 9th to 12th. The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) has been preparing this Summit since 1999. WSIS brings to an end the first phase of the global thought on the implications of the information and communications technologies (ICTs) for our Society. It opens the second phase that will end with the next World Summit to be held in Tunisia in 2005. The results achieved in Geneva have been presented as a compromise between the developed and the developing countries. The numerous representatives of the Civil Society invited to the Summit disagreed with such interpretation and presented an independent Final Declaration. The main issues at stake were: the institutional system for the Internet governance, the freedom of information and communication, and the technological gap between North and South. Some representatives asked to transfer the authority of the Internet governance from ICANN, a private corporation under the umbrella of the US Dept. of Commerce, to a multilateral organization under UN control (probably ITU). The idea to create an international fund for technological development was also discussed. No decision was taken on these two issues, but it was agreed to keep them in the Tunis’05 agenda. Regarding the information and communication freedom, a compromise was reached and reflected in the final Declaration of Principles. Finally the decision to hold in Tunisia next WSIS was criticized because of this country’s unclear record regarding freedom of information. Furthermore, the organizers were criticized because it came to light the use of electronic devices inserted in the Summit’s IDs to track the movements of those present without their consent.
Extraordinary Summit of the Americas in Monterrey (until the 14th 2004f January 2004f 2004)
On January 12th and 13th an extraordinary summit of the Americas will be held in the Mexican city of Monterrey (Nuevo Leon). During this summit the presidents of 34 American states (all except Cuba) will debate the concretion of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) in 2005 and perhaps they discuss the war in Iraq. Although both subjects are out of the official agenda, according to recent declarations of John Maisto, US ambassador to the O.A.S. “is important to reiterate what our ministers of Trade decided in Miami” at the end of November to “fulfil the negotiations”. The main subject, nevertheless, will be the question of the distribution of wealth, considering that in Latin America and the Caribbean the richest 10% of the population accumulates 48% of the wealth whereas the poorest 10% only enjoy 1,6%. To achieve an agreement between the statelist positions, like the ones defended by Lula or Hugo Chavez, as opposed to most neoliberal ones promoted by Bush, will not be an easy task. Indeed, the recent announcement of Bush to apply a wide program of legalization for the almost 8 million Latin American illegal immigrants who live and work in the United States would establish, at least, the bases for the recognition of a situation generated by the enormous inequality of the distribution of wealth in the Americas, despite the oportunism of the proposal in an electoral year in which the Latin vote can be decisive.
Sharon widens the Jewish settlements in the Golan (until the 08th 2004f January 2004f 2004)
After the attack in October by the Israeli aviation to a Palestinian refugees camp in the outskirts of Damascus, which supposed the first Jewish armed intervention in Syrian ground since 1973, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon has approved a plan to build 900 houses for Hebrew settlers in the Golan Heights. This announcement, that will allow the number of settlers to grow from the current 18,000 to up to 27,000, has been made only a few days after Damascus announced its will to retake the dialogue with Tel Aviv. The strategic territory of Golan, from where the sources of the Jordan river and great part of the hydric resources of the region are controlled, was conquered by Israel after the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, and annexed in 1981. In a clear gesture of challenge, the Israeli minister of Agriculture, Israel Katz, has declared "... I would like that (Syrian) president Bashar al Assad could see how the Golan blooms ".
Terror attacks againt the president of Pakistan (until the 02nd 2004f January 2004f 2004)
The president of Pakistan, general Pervez Musharraf, underwent the Christmas day the second attack against his life in less than 2 weeks. Wide sectors of the army and, mainly, the intelligence services (ISI), are closely tie to Islamic fundamentalist groupings and parties, with whom they collaborate since the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. In fact the taliban, formed in the Quranic schools (mederesh) of Peshawar and Quetta, had Islamabad's political and logistic support until the September 11th 2001, and Pakistan was the last country in retiring its recognition to the taliban regime in Kabul. The influence of the islamists in the security services has allowed, according to the analysts, both almost consecutive attacks against Musharraf, making unclear its capacity to guarantee the security in the South Asian for Association Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit foreseen for next week in Pakistan. The present pro-US line of the Pakistani government in the proclaimed international war against terrorism has turned Musharraf a high-priority objective for Al Qaeda, while the country looks for an approach with India in the Kashmir and nuclear issues that allows to improve the regional stabilization and attract investors.
Sudan Peace Talks Progress (until the 27th 2003f December 2003f 2003)
After the 11th September, the United States urges in the mediation of the Sudanese conflict sponsoring conversations that lead to the declaration of a truce for six months in the region of mounts of Nuba (central Sudan) and to an agreement of free circulation of the humanitarian aid. In July 2002 the peace talks begin in Machakos, near the Kenyan capital, between the Government of Omar to al-Bashir and the Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M), the main armed group of the Christians of southern Sudan. These negotiations conclude in his first stage with the signature of an important protocol in July 20th, that supposes the commitment to open a six years long transitory period, during which the South will enjoy a Statute of autonomy and the Sharia (Islamic law) will not be applied in that zone. This announcement is considered as an endorsement to the SPLA/M theses and a sample that the Sudanese authorities are beginning to respond to the US strategic coordinates favorably. Actually, the US-Sudan relations have experienced a remarkable progress since the American strike in a pharmaceutical plant of Sudan in 1998. The Sudanese government and the SPLA began the last round of peace talks last July in Kenya, aimed at ending the longest civil war in the continent, under the auspices of the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a seven-member regional group in East Africa, which consists of Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Uganda, Eritrea, Tanzania and Sudan. Both parties have been committed to reaching a final deal by the end of year during the peace talks recently hold in Naivasha.
Iraqi Libanization (until the 17th 2003f December 2003f 2003)
The Oil for Food Program, the only one exclusively financed by resources of the own beneficiary country, expired on November 21st, putting into the hands of the occupying powers the distribution of the humanitarian aid in Iraq. Actually the country has sunk in a libanisation formed by such heterogeneous groups as faithful baasists loyal to Saddam Hussein (reportedly hidden somewhere in western Iraq), iraqis and foreign Islamic terrorists financed by Al Qaeda, and disorganized groups arisen from the popular hostility against the occupants. The attacks against the United Nations and the Red Cross n Bagdad do not hide that what is happening in Iraq goes beyond a terrorism problem. The attacks perpetrated against the Italian carabinieri and the Spanish intelligence services are added to the constant dripping of losses suffered by the US troops in ambushes and surprise and terrorist attacks. Critics against the Bush Administration have embodied in the call made by France, Russia and Germany to the UN in order to hold an International Summit on the Future of Iraq. The United States has asked for a greater participation of this international organism, offer that has been rejected by its Secretary General, who has affirmed that the United Nations will not massively unfold in Iraq until the security conditions do not improve. The proximity of the elections in the United States drives the Bush policy towards Iraq, that looks for the assumption of greater responsibilities by the international community (Japan has announced that will send 600 troops) a double electoral argument: to gain supports to legitimize his "pre-emptive strike" doctrine and to reduce the high human and financial cost that the present situation represents for the United States.
Rarefied climate before the legislative elections in Russia (until the 09th 2003f December 2003f 2003)
Russia celebrates legislative elections next Sunday, still conditioned by the controversial performance of the army in Chechnia, the scandals of corruption, and the fight between economic oligarchies and Vladimir Putin's government. The Chechen conflict, described by the government as a terrorism problem, has re-emerged within the Russian public opinion as a result of the publication of some photos in the newspaper Novaya Gazeta showing sequences of an unpublished recording of video in which an agent of the FSB (the former KGB) executes one of the Dubrovka street's theater kidnappers when he was unconscious, in October 2002. On the other hand, the displeasure between the Russian enterprise sector has been in crescendo since the president of Yukos, Mijail Jodorkovsky, was arrested this summer. The situation has become so serious that the General Director of the National Strategy Council, Stanislav Belkovsky, has alerted on the possibility of a coup d'etat encouraged by the economic elites.
France and Germany break the Stability and Growth Pact (until the 02nd 2003f December 2003f 2003)
The recent break down of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) by France and Germany with no sanctions adopted against them has opened a deep institutional credibility crisis within the European Union. The SGP is the concrete EU answer to concerns on the continuation of budgetary discipline in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and it considers sanctions up to 0'5% GDP for those countries whose public debt surpasses 3% GDP. Adopted in 1997, the SGP strengthened the Treaty provisions on fiscal discipline, and the full provisions took effect when the euro was launched on 1 January 1999. This French-German decision seems inseparable of the delicate political moment within the EU in occasion of the divergences between their members dealing with issues such as the occupation on Iraq, the enlargement to the East in 2004 and the disagreements on the European Constitution.
Anti-Hebrew terrorist attack in Istambul (until the 26th 2003f November 2003f 2003)
The attack against two synagogues in Istambul last Saturday, that left a balance of 25 dead and more than 200 wounded, has made clear that the ramifications of Al Qaeda, who has vindicated the responsibility, also extend to a lay country as Turkey. In fact the attack can be simultaneously interpreted as an attack against the Jewish community and the Turkish state, that in spite of being governed for a year by a moderate islamist party has maintained its traditional good relations with Tel Aviv. In this context Ankara pointed quickly to the international networks of terrorism, that could have enjoyed with the support of small local fundamentalist groups which were considered unoperational for long time on.
Fraud in the Elections in Georgia (until the 18th 2003f November 2003f 2003)
The elections hold on November 2 in Georgia and whose definitive results have not yet been disclosed, have opened a political crisis that has driven thousands of Georgians to the streets amid of irregularity and fraud accusations against the president Eduard Sheverdnadze. This Caucasian republic, sunk since the dissolution of the USSR in an economic and social crisis which does not succeeds to recover, lays in a key geostrategic place due to the exports of the Caspian oil and gaz through pipe lines that cross its territory, and has been uninterruptedly governed since its independence by the former Soviet Foreign Minister with Mijail Gorbachov. According to Central Election Commission statistics, Shevardnadze's bloc, For a New Georgia, looked on track to collect 21 percent of the vote as of November 7. In the constantly shifting official count, his National Movement party received 18.5 percent of the vote, but non-government sources put their results closer to 25 percent. The instability, agravated by the latent conflict in Osetia and mainly in Abjasia (where 10 years ago Commonwealth of Independent States peace keeping forces unfolded through the UNOMIG), opens a period of political undefinition for the future of this former Soviet republic.
Political Crisis in Sri lanka (until the 11th 2003f November 2003f 2003)
A burdens political crisis has exploded in Sri Lanka with the destitution of three ministers ordered by the president, Chandrika Kumaratunga, and the troop movements in the capital and other regions of the country after Kumaratunga rejected the peace plan proposed last week by the secessionist Tigers of Liberation of Tamil Eelam. The force blow, that includes the suspension of the parliamentary activities during at least two weeks, occurs at the time that the prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was in a trip to Washington. Wickremesinghe is partisan of the peace talks continuity with the Tamil, and a political rival of Kumaratunga. The victory of Wickremesinghe in December 2001 opened, thanks to the Norwegian mediation, a peace process plenty of low stops, aimed to provide a political solution to the Tamil question. The division of the Ceylonese society on the convenience of continuing the conversations, nevertheless, has become a determining factor for the present instability.
Extended until January the MINURSO's Mandate (until the 04th 2003f November 2003f 2003)
The Security Council extended on Monday the mandate of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), due to expire on Friday, until the end of next January. The unanimous vote comes after Secretary-General Kofi Annan asked the Council earlier this month to give Morocco more time to consider a peace plan submitted by his Personal Envoy, James Baker, earlier this year, which calls for a referendum on the area’s future. The Baker Plan envisages a period of transition during which there would be a division of responsibilities between the parties before the holding of a referendum for self-determination within four or five years. Unlike an earlier proposal, the new peace plan does not require the consent of the parties at each and every step of its implementation.
15th APEC Summit in Bangkok (until the 28th 2003f October 2003f 2003)
From 17th to 22nd October Thailand helds the fifteenth Summit of Presidents and Prime Ministers of the 21 member countries of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). The APEC economies, a mechanism of annual meetings set up in 1989 in answer to the increasing economic and commercial interdependence of the Pacific basin countries, represents almost 50% of the world-wide GDP. This summit has been used by Washington to obtain a commitment of the APEC member countries in the war on terrorism, that in the final official notice has been translated in collaboration for "completely dismantling without delay the transnational terrorist groups". Some countries, like Malaysia, have regretted that the political agenda has shadowed the economic one. Dealing with the mass destruction arms, the APEC has agreed "to reinforce the international control systems on the non-proliferation". However, no explicit mention to North Korea has been done in the final document, although there has been an intense interchange of impressions among the presidents of China, United States, Russia and South Korea on the nuclear crisis with Pyongyang. Within the framework of the Bangkok summit diverse agreements at ministerial level between several countries have been concluded, specially on trade liberalization. In 2004 Chile he will be the guest of the next APEC summit.
Political and social crisis in Bolivia (until the 21st 2003f October 2003f 2003)
The ghost of the civil war has overflied Bolivia, after the serious incidents in several areas of the country that have left up to 40 dead. While the business sector has clearly supported president Sanchez de Losada, the resignation of vice-president Carlos Mesa to obey him though keeping his post, and the declarations of the commander of the Armed Forces general Roberto Claros, retiring the Army's support to the president "as person" in spite of being forced to support him as the legitimately chosen president, have opened a deep institutional crisis in the country. The rise, started on Sunday in el Alto when police and demonstrator convoked by some social sectors harmed by the agreements reached with US multinationals for the export of the Bolivian gas, has extended in La Paz, that has been militarized to protect the presidential palace, as well as in other cities and mining regions. The opposition leader Evo Moral, has asked the government through a Chilean radio to "do not insist on its intention to export the Bolivian gas". The lack of confidence in the Latin American economies since the Argentine crisis in December 2001 has worsened the social situation in many countries of that region, causing a growth of the social oriented movements of guevarista inspiration.
Syria in the crossroad (until the 14th 2003f October 2003f 2003)
The suicide attack perpetrated this weekend in Haifa by Tayasir Jaradat, a Palestine lawyer woman of Jenin, caused the immediate reaction of Israel, whose Air Forces bombed a Palestinian camp of refugees 15 kilometers far from Damascus, under the accusation by Tel Aviv to provide support to the Palestinian groups opposed to the peace talks. Syria, in a difficult situation of international isolation and threatened by the economic sanctions of the United States (the "Accountability Syrian Act" is being discussed in the Congress), immediately raised a protest before the Security Council of United Nations, that summoned a debate on the subject in an urgency meeting. Damascus, that since the defeat in the Yom Kippur war 30 years ago has been maintaining a strict respect of the cease-fire with Israel in its common border (where it lost the strategic region of the Golan Highs), based its foreign policy on the Soviet support until 1991, with the aim to maintain a regional balance with Israel that acted as a dissuasion in order to avoid possible Israeli retaliations. Actually, the hostility between both countries has been developed since 1974 in Lebanon. This new episode, with a frontal attack on Syrian ground by the Israeli Air Forces, represents a serious step towards the internationalization of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, that already has caused an energetic protest of the Arab Leage of States that will meet in extraordinary session this week.
Peacekeeping forces deployed in Liberia (until the 07th 2003f October 2003f 2003)
Liberia, the only African territory together with Ethiopia that remained independent from the European powers since the late XIX century, is severely affected by the protracted internal conflict that erupted in the late eighties. Charles Taylor came to power by force in 1990 and was elected President in 1997. Rebel groups have been fighting to overthrow Taylor between 1990 and 1997 and again from 1999, and disrespect for the rule of law, democracy and human rights has been minimal on all sides. There have been reports of resources plundering (diamonds, timber), endemic corruption and ethnic problems. Following the rebels’ advance in 2003 and under pressure from the international community the Government of Liberia agreed to come to the negotiation table. Peace talks held under the auspices of ECOWAS were under way since 4 June 2003. In the framework of these peace talks a cease-fire agreement was signed between the belligerent parties on 17 June 2003. Mandated by UN Security Council n° 1497 of 1 August 2003, ECOWAS started with the deployment of a peacekeeping force on 4 August to help enforce the cease-fire. Under pressure from the international community and in accordance with the agreements reached in Accra, Charles Taylor stepped down as President and handed over power to Vice-President Moses Blah on 11 August. The peace talks, still ongoing to reach an agreement on the composition of a future transitional government acceptable by all parts, are supported by the recent UN Security Council resolution 1509 of September 19 that guarantees the unfolding of 16,000 men including 250 military observers through the set up of the United Nations Mission for Liberia (UNMIL).
Political evolutions in Central Asia (until the 01st 2003f October 2003f 2003)
The former Soviet republics of Central Asia have been trying to create a frame of common understanding since the dissolution of the USSR, in order to defend their interests in opposition to the Russian influence in the region. This aim has obtained only very limited results due to the economic dependency, the ethnic problems and deficient infrastructures, factors all of them inherited from the Soviet era. The territorial division that Stalin designed for these republics responded in fact to the strategic interests of Moscow in the decade of the 20s of the last century. Only Uzbekistan has had the capacity to maintain a certain independence in its foreign policy regarding Moscow. The operation Enduring Freedom, that represented the arrival of US military bases to fight the taliban in Afghanistan, put these countries in the highlight of the international scene. Its strategical geographic situation and its relative abundance of energy resources have turned them the center of attention of diverse powers, like China, Iran, Turkey and the United States. On the other hand four of the five republics are still governed by the same presidents in charge before the 1991 independence, that is, the Soviet times. The fight against Islamic fundamentalism (spread mainly in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan), serves to a great extent as pretext to maintain the political authoritarianism, in front of a civil society each day more and more organized.
The European External Policy regarding Iraq (until the 23rd 2003f September 2003f 2003)
The presidents of France, Germany and the United Kingdom will meet next Saturday to approach positions on the European policy regarding Iraq. Indeed, the divergences between the Paris-Berlin axis and the London-Madrid-Rome one (with Italy occupying the EU semester presidency after the controversial taking of possession by Berlusconi in July), have blocked the adoption of a common policy towards the situation in Iraq, putting again in evidence the condition of economic giant and political dwarf of the European Union. Chirac and Schroeder, who will meet in Berlin on Thursday within the framework of the German-French annual consultations, will receive to Blair, with whom they will focus his conversations basically on the role of the United Nations in the post-Saddam Iraq , the eventual increase of troops and military presence, the humanitarian assistance and the resolutions of the Security Council, in addition to other issues of international relevance. Five months after the European Council hold in Athens, pretty after the war of Iraq, the differences between the European partners are still preventing the adoption of a common policy that would provide to Europe the political weight that should correspond to its economic and demographic size, in views to the enlargement in the first half of 2004.
Abu Ala, New Palestinian Prime Minister (until the 17th 2003f September 2003f 2003)
The last terrorist attack in Tel Aviv, commited on 9th September as an answer to the incursion of the Hebrew army in Hebrón, adds difficulties to the recently designated Palestinian prime minister Ahmed Qurea, alias Abu Ala, after the resignation of Abu Mazen last week. The resignation of Mazen, according to Palestinian sources, took place because Israel did not improve the situation of the population, did not release prisoners, did not stop the selective murders and did not restrain the construction of the border wall. As no significant advances have been registered in the fulfilment of the Road Map for the peace process since June, the Palestinian government has been remodeled. Abu Ala, considered a moderate with a wide political experience, militates since late 60's in Al-Fahta, the party of the Palestinian rais Yasser Arafat, has been president of the Palestinian Parliament and was one of the main negotiators for the Oslo agreements. The European Union already has showed its support to new prime minister, whom considers a personage with the ideal profile to give a new impulse to the peace process. The United States maintains an official silence on the matter, while the Israel's Foreign Minister has showed reserves until Abu Ala does not undertake the first measures as the head of government. A new stage in the application of the Road Map is opened therefore, whose results are still uncertain.
The difficulties of Lula's government (until the 09th 2003f September 2003f 2003)
The legislative reforms impelled by president Lula on Social Security and fiscal coresponsibility have opened a crisis in the Party of the Workers, whose left wing is considering to split, though the popularity of president Lula remains high among the population. The taxation of pensions higher than 480 monthly euros, the increase of the age to receive the retirement pensions, and the cut of certain rights (or privileges) for the public servants, has raised the malaise of certain social sectors who had previously voted Lula. On the other hand, the reform of the fiscal coresponsibility law has mobilized the municipalities all over the country, that demand a greater representativeness in the collection and management of the taxes. The issue of the Landless Workers Movement (LWM), focused by all parties during the electoral campaign and central in the political debate of the country, is not expected to provide immediate results, though the higher tolerance of PT's government to the occupations by the LWM. The sclerosis of the Brazilian public Administration and the relations with the local powers have become the authentic headache for the Lula government at the inner level, beside an economy that in spite of generating good spectations does not turns up. At the foreign policy level Brazil leads the process of regional integration of South America, and has become a country of reference for the World Social Forum after the victory of Lula.
Conversations on Korean denuclearization go on (until the 04th 2003f September 2003f 2003)
On August 27th a new negotiating round on the peninsula of Korea began in Beijing. Representatives of both Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States have assisted to the meeting. Despite the diplomatic tension between the United States and North Korea persists, Pyongyang has accepted to initiate the negotiations on the basis of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, a goal pursued by Seoul since the retreat of the US nuclear arsenals in South Korea in 1991. Pyongyang, who has always invoked its right to develop atomic weapons to guarantee its security, agrees this way to resign to those arsenals, in exchange for initiating bilateral conversations with Washington. Indeed, the United States conditions the establishment of conversations on a nonaggression agreement with Pyongyang to the total give up of the North Korean nuclear program. China, on the other hand, has reinforced its regional position with the role of mediator in the Korean issue. Although the conversations have finished without a definitive agreement, they will be retaken in October.
Libya within the international community (until the 29th 2003f August 2003f 2003)
The unforseeable personality of the Libyan leader Muammar al Gadaffi has determined since 1969, when the bloodless revolution that overthrew to king Idris as-Sanusi triumphed, the erratic foreign policy of the Arab Popular and Socialist Republic of Libya. Since his arrival to power, Gaddaffi launched a personal ideology denominated the Third Universal Theory between the Comunism and Capitalism, a "natural socialism" that places the source of all right in the Kuran. Very influenced by the figure of Nasser, Gadaffi tried in the 70s to become an outstanding leader of the panarabism. Its initial rejection to the atheistic materialism that represented the Soviet Comunism (he helped to abort a pro-Communist coup d'etat in Sudan in 1971) worth in the first years the implicit support of Washington to him, in spite of the evacuation of the British and American military bases in 1970. In the 80s Gaddaffi radically turned the foreign policy of Libya, looking for the Soviet aid to acquire new armament, impelling an interventionism in black Africa (Uganda, Somalia, Liberia, Burkina Faso) and taking military actions in Chad, facts that worth the confrontation with France and the United States. The Reagan Administration accused him to shelter and to finance international terrorist groups. The bombing of Tripoli and Bengasi by US forces in 1986 was responded with the attack against a passenger airplane on the Scottish locality of Lockerbie in 1988 by Libyan agents, that left a balance of 270 dead. In 1998 the United States and the United Kingdom accepted that the suspects of the Lockerbie attack were judged in the Netherlands as a neutral country, and the UN Security Council solved that the sanctions would be raised as soon as the delivery was made, which took place in 1999. The United States, nevertheless, maintained the blockade through the law Kenedy-D'Amato. Recently the United States and the United Kingdom have accepted to eliminate the sanctions that still weigh on Libya due to the change of Gaddaffi's attitude regarding the collaboration in the fight against international terrorism, after Tripoli accepted to pay a millionaire indemnification by the victims of Lockerbie. France, that also demands a similar treatment for the victims of the French airplane UTA 772 bombed by Libyan agents in 1989 on Niger, has threatened to block that decision in the Security Council.
The Iraki National Council starts a constitutional process (until the 19th 2003f August 2003f 2003)
Fulfilled 100 days since the symbolic fall of the Saddam Hussein' statue in Bagdad, the situation in Irak is far away to become normal. The Kurd north seems to be stabilized with the consolidation of its autonomy and the idea to set up a federal state -in spite of the relative cooling of the US Turkey relations-. In the Shiite south, where the influence of Iran has grown, does not exist an active armed resistance, although the rejection to the military presence of the international coalition (led by the United States, with operational personnel from 19 countries and cofinanced by almost 3 dozens countries) is increasing. The greater problems occur in the so called Sunnite triangle, where the consolidation of guerrillas is driving to a vietnamization of the conflict, and has forced the Pentagon to re-think the military strategy. The attack against the Jordanian embassy in Bagdad can be interpreted like a reaction to the turn off done by the Hashemite kingdom regarding Iraq after the death of king Hussein. On the other hand, the controversy of the nonpublished report by the Bush Administration on the supposed connections of the Saudi intelligence services with Al Qaeda, has contributed to widen the distance between Washington and Riyadh. The proposal of the US governor in Iraq, Paul Bremer, that a team of 150 iraki specialists studied the Constitution displayed by the Pentagon, was blocked by the Shiite leader Ayatolah Al Sistani. The National Iraqi Council, constituted a month ago, has set up a team of 25 specialists to initiate a consultative process between ethnic, religious, political and cultural groups that compose the complex mosaic of the country, in order to redact a Constitution. The UN Secretary General representative in Bagdad, the Brazilian Sergio Vieira de Mello, has recently showed his support to the initiative, after visiting Egypt.
Aliyev dinasty seeks continuity in power in Azerbaijan (until the 12th 2003f August 2003f 2003)
The octogenary president of Azerbaijan Haydar Aliyev, who entered in a clinic near Ankara the 8th July due to coronary problems, drove with the support of the Milli Majlis on August 4th to his son, Ilham Aliev, as the prime minister of the country, in substitution of Artur Rasi-Zade. This represents a de facto perpetuation in power of the Aliyev dynasty, since the Constitution of Azerbaijan foresees that prime minister assumes the presidential powers in case of incapacity of the president, before the call for presidential elections in a maximum term of three months. In the Muslim republics of the former USSR traditional tribal and clanic loyalties adapted perfectly to the hierarchized structure of the State and the Communist Party, giving rise after the dissolution of the Soviet Union to stable and personalist regimes with a political culture characterized by the political authoritarism and clientelism. Haydar Aliyev, linked during the Soviet era to the KGB, assumed in fact the presidency of the country in 1993, two years after independence, and has been uninterruptedly governing since then. His son Ilham is a stranger in the political scene, reason why doubts have risen regarding the continuity of the Azerbaijan's foreign policy, deeply conditioned by the conflict of Nagorno Karabaj with Armenia and the balance in its approach to the West -specially dealing with energy policies- and the maintenance of good neighbouring relations with Russia.
Military rebelion in the Philippines (until the 05th 2003f August 2003f 2003)
Last weekend the president of the Philippines, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, had to face a muttin carried out by 296 rebellious military, who took a strategic zone in the financial and diplomatic district of Makati. This attempt of coup d'état has opened a wide debate within the Philippine political environment on the necessity to reform the Armed Forces, attending to the warning on the probability of another rise done by the muttined military, who accuse the government to fail to fulfill their commitments with the Army. Gloria Macapagal, in a speech in which she thanked the international community for its support during the crisis, affirmed on Monday that "this event does not in any way injure our national security and political stability... Once more, this has been a triumph for democracy". The Philippines, a founding country of the ASEAN in 1967, is at present one of the hot spots of the international war against terrorism in Southeast Asia, by the existence of the Al-Qaeda linked Islamic independentists guerrillas Abbu Sayaf and the Moro Front of Liberation in southern regions of the country. Support to the civil government has been unanimous within the international community. The US Department of State has lauded the pacific resolution of the crisis, as well as the decision of president Macapagal to listen to the inquiries of the muttined soldiers and officials. The relations with China grow in the economic field within the framework of the Free Trade Agreement between ASEAN and China, but they remain difficult in the politicial field due to the constant fishing incidents and the disputed sovereignty of some small barren islands in the Southern China Sea. The fragility of the most westernized regime in Southeast Asia could suppose a threat for the stabilization of a regional balance within the framework of the present international system.
China within the current international framework (until the 30th 2003f July 2003f 2003)
On June the new Chinese president, Hu Jintao, fulfiled his first overseas tour through Mongolia, Central Asia, Russia and Europe, where he attended the G8 Summit in the Swiss city of Evian. In the meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin, the creation of a secretariat for the Shangai Cooperation Organization -until now an informal forum gathering Russia, China, Kirguiztan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tadzhikistan, to deal with border issues, economic cooperation and measures against the international terrorism- was decided. On July 17th a Chinese delegation arrived at Washington to deal with the North Korean nuclear program issue, after the US intelligence services announced that Pyongyang has developed a second reactor and that South Korea dennounced that his northern neighbourg has unfolded missiles capable to reach any part of Japan. China, who acts as a mediator between Washington and Pyongyang, has announced that in August will retake in Beijing the conversations between the United States, North Korea and the own China, started in April. On the other hand Beijing has obtained from the Bush Administration the commitment to defend the policy of "One China", thus rejecting any possibility of independence of Taiwan. The economic cooperation with the United States within the framework of the APEC has also centered the last diplomatic efforts between both countries. Always within the economic scope, the 1st July took effect the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-operation between ASEAN and China, that sets up the basis for the creation of a free trade area between China and Southeast Asia. The pragmatic foreign policy undertaken by Beijing determines the guidelines of its relocation in the current international system redefinition process.
Cooling of the Turkey-US relations (until the 22nd 2003f July 2003f 2003)
The detention of 11 soldiers of the Turkish special forces in the northern Iraqi city of Sulaimaniya by the US army, has made clear the bad moment that the Ankara-Washington relations know since the start of the war in Iraq. The Turkish refusal to yield its territory for the unfolding of US troops from its border with Iraq in March staged the cooling initiated with the victory of the moderate islamist Party of Justice and the Development in November 2002. Washington, who found in the Kurd pesh merga militias their natural allies against Saddam Hussein in northern Iraq, even warned Turkey during the course of the war to abstain to deploy troops in the Iraqian Kurdistan, due to the danger of lebanization that this fact could represent. On the other hand, the postponement of the bilateral financial aid that Washington provides to Turkey has not contributed either to the improvement of relations. Both in Turkey and in the United States the debate on the need to reframe the bilateral relations has been opened, since their interests in the new resulting strategic configuration of the pre-emptive strike against Iraq do not coincide.
FTAA and integration processes in the Western Hemisphere (until the 16th 2003f July 2003f 2003)
In the Summit of the Americas hold in Miami in December 1994 the presidents of 34 countries of the Western Hemishpere decided to start up a process of progressive elimination of the trade and investment barriers, known as Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) whose negotiations should conclude in January 2005. On the basis of the agreement reached in March 1998 in the fourth ministerial meeting in Costa Rica (Declaration of San Jose) the FTAA negotiations started formally in April 1998, during the Second Summit of the Americas in Santiago of Chile. The third Summit of the Américas, celebrated in April 2001 in Quebec, was the frame to adopt fundamental decisions for the process of FTAA negotiations, that culminated with the publication of the first FTAA agreement draft in July 2001. In the seventh ministerial summit hold in Quito a second version of the agreement draft was approved, on which the goverments work at present. In this context some processes of subregional integration are being developped as well, as the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Central American Secretariat of Economic Integration (SIECA), the Andean Community or The Common Market of Cono Sur (MERCOSUR). The Argentine crisis, that was felt as a confidence crisis in many Latin American economies, has contributed to create an opposition climate to FTAA among the public opinion of many Latin American countries, who feel this process as an instrument of the United States to flood their markets with products "Made in the USA", when trying to integrate economies with so different levels of development. Thus, some Latin American leaders have openly requested a postponement for the conclusion in the definitive agreement. Parallelly, while the MERCOSUR and the Andean Community persecute the establishment of an integrated South American space before the 31st December 2003, the countries of the SIECA and the United States are embarked in a process for the attainment of a Free Trade Agreement. In this directory of links you will be able to learn more on the advances and difficulties in the American integration processes.
Solomon Islands: Ethnic violence in South Pacific (until the 08th 2003f July 2003f 2003)
Solomon Islands, with a population of approximately 450,000, is an archipelago stretching over 840 miles in the South Pacific. There are six major and approximately 992 smaller islands, attolls and reefs. After the Second World War, much of the development in the Solomons concentrated around the capital, Honiara, based in the island of Guadalcanal. The Malaitans, inhabitants of the Malaita island, who comprise about one-third of the population, generally dominate the elected government and the business sector around Honiara. Over the 19th century, many persons from the poor, heavily populated island of Malaita have settled on Guadalcanal where the resentment they engendered culminated in violence. During 1999 ethnic violence perpetrated by some indigenous residents of Guadalcanal against immigrants from Malaita led to several deaths, kidnapings, and the flight of nearly 23,000 persons from Guadalcanal. Two armed rival factions have emerged in the crisis. The Isatabu Freedom Movement (IFM) claims indigenous rights to land on Guadalcanal and wants the Malaitans to move out of the capital, Honiara. The Malaita Eagles Force (MEF) is fighting for land and buildings left behind in Honiara by Malaitans who have fled Guadalcanal. In this context, on October 15th 2000 the Townsville peace agreement was signed, though its implementation has not been fulfilled. For that reason in the meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum hold in Sydney on June 30th, an Australian interposition force deployment was decided. Learn more on that conflict in the links provided.
Difficulties for the pacification of Afghanistan (until the 01st 2003f July 2003f 2003)
The difficulties to pacify the post taliban Afghanistan, where warlords and taliban groups still control several regions, shows the complexity of the conflict and the problems that entail to reconstruct a country devastated by more than 20 years of confrontation, and where war has become a modus vivendi. At the moment even Kabul, controlled by the Government of Karzai, is divided in two factions: the pro American faction, represented by the allied troops and those loyal to president Hamid Karzai, and the pro Russian and pro Iranian faction, represented by the minister of Defense, general Qasim Fahim and the Northern Alliance forces. Both are in the process of reinforcing their basis to start off from a force position when next October Loya Jirga (Assembly of the Tribes) will be summoned. This Loya Jirga must put an end to the transitional government that rules Afghanistan since the fall of the taliban regime. The groups of resistance to interim government, formed basically by taliban regrouped in the Pakistani border and by some warlords (among who the pro-Iranian Gulbudin Hekmatyar, leader of the Hezb-i-Islami party that in spite of its bloody opposition to taliban promotes the restoration of an Islamic regime) will play probably an important role in the future Loya Jirga. In fact Pakistani and American intelligence services have maintained contacts with taliban leaders to try to reach an agreement on the future pacification of the country.
Iran within the post Saddam international framework (until the 24th 2003f June 2003f 2003)
Last week a student revolt, that resolved with up to 250 arrests, exploded in Iran asking the government for democratic reforms. The explicit support of US president Bush to the demonstrators, who protested against the most conservative sectors of the Islamic Republic headed by spiritual guide Ali Jamenei, has been responded by the formal protest of Tehran that blames Washington to interfere the Iranian internal affairs. The inclusion of Iran in the "Axis of Evil" by Bush in January 2002, based both in the support provided by Tehran to groups such as Hamas considered terrorists and in the development of a nuclear program that would enable the Islamic Republic to produce nukes, has produced since a constant deterioration of the bilateral relations. The invasion of Iraq, country with which Iran maintained a devastating war in the 80s, has added one more reason for friction, since the leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, widely supported by Iraqi Shia, maintains strong links with Iran. The Iranian nuclear plan, developed with Russian aid, received an impulse months ago with the discovery of uranium deposits in the country. Warnings of the the International Atomic Energy Agency on the concealment of information by Iran regarding its nuclear plans have been worth a conditioning by the European Union asking Iran to cooperate before signing a commercial agreement with Tehran. With US troops in Afghanistan, Central Asia, Turkey, Iraq and the Persian Gulf, the Iranian regime seems to be the next step in the global war against terrorism.
Political Crisis in Myanmar: Suu Kyi under arrest (until the 17th 2003f June 2003f 2003)
The halting and isolation of 19 members of the Myanmar National League for Democracy among who Aung San Suu Kyi, Nobel Peace prize in 1991, has blocked the hesitant process of political liberalization undertaken a year ago the Military Junta ruling this South-East Asian country. One year back Suu Kyi was freed by the military regime, after remaining under house arrest for 20 months. This fact was shouldered by the international community, that smoothed the sanctions on the Burman government as sample of support to the democratization process. However, the arrests and the wave of repression triggered at the end of May (closing of universities and opposition offices included) show the limits of the democratization will of the government. In the internal scope the increasing popularity of Suu Kyi threatens the political control of the country by the 41 years old ruling Military Junta, which in 1990 did not accept the results of the elections won by Suu Kyi. In the international context, the Burman dictatorship has taken advantage of the fact that international attention is focused in the Middle East, and the wave of security and repression hardening measures undertaken by some countries under the international fight against terrorism umbrella. However, neither the United Nations, nor the United States nor the European Union have ignored the situation in the country. Actually Razali Ismail, representative of the UN General Secretary, met this morning with Suu Kyi (although he was not allowed to reveal where is she retained), in the frame of an urgency visit to Myanmar. On the other hand both the President of the United States and the European Parliament have sent threats in order to resume the sanctions if the political situation does not improve. Also the human rights organizations have had a fundamental role in the denounce of the violations committed by the Burman military regime, specially against some ethnic minorities.
Russian Foreign Policy on the 300 Anniversary of Saint Petersburg (until the 10th 2003f June 2003f 2003)
The third centenary celebration of the foundation of Saint Petersburg gathered high representatives of more than 40 countries in this Baltic Russian city. Within the frame of these events president Putin hold on May 30th the Commonwealth of Independent States Summit, where issues on the economic cooperation, the circulation of people, and the antiterrorist fight were approached. That same day president Putin met with Japanese prime minister Koizumi, with whom debated on economic subjects, the nuclear proliferation in the Korean peninsula and the pending problem of the Southern Kurile Islands since the end of II World War. On May 31st, the 11th Russia-European Union Summit was hold. The debates were centered in the question of visas, the future of the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad within EU territory from 2004, human rights and the cooperation in economic and security matters. US president Bush also attended Saint Petersburg summits, and maintained a bilateral encounter with Putin to deal with the recostruction of Iraq, the fight to international terrorism, the control of nuclear proliferation and the investments of US companies in the obsolete oil sector of the Russian Federation. Saint Petersburg represented, actually, a general review of the Russian foreign policy in the international system issued from the postwar in Iraq, that struggles between its role of great power inherited of the Soviet period and the pressure exerted by other blocks on zones that until the last decade were under their area of influence, like Central Asia or Eastearn Europe.
Israel accepts a conditioned implementation of the Middle East Roadmap (until the 03rd 2003f June 2003f 2003)
The approval by the Israeli government of the Middle East Roadmap proposed by the United States and guaranteed by the UN, the UE and Russia opens new expectations for the attainment of a definitive peace plan in the Middle East. Under the shadow of the conflict in Irak, the growth of the political figure of the recently named Palestinian prime minister Abu Mazen, at the expenses of president Arafat, had been raised like a sine qua non condition by Israel and the United States to impel the peace process. The recognition of the right to exist of a Palestinian State by the Sharon government represents an historical landmark, although it has opened fissures between the parties that compose the Israeli Executive and though it has benn conditioned to the fullfilment by the United States of 14 conditions that remain secret. In spite of these political advances, the situation on the land continues tense, as demonstrate the incursions of the Hebrew army in important zones of West Bank and Gaza Strip, that have been settled with a constant dripping of Palestinian victims. The foreseen meeting between Sharon and Mazen, with the probable attendance of president Bush, could represent a point of flexion in the 55 years old Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the strategic region of the Middle East.
UN Security Council passes Resolution 1483 (until the 27th 2003f May 2003f 2003)
As diplomatic contacts between the UN Security Council members were re-activated immediately after the war of Iraq, the US Secretary of State, Collin Powell, traveled to the Middle East and Europe. As a result of the negotiations the UN Security Council approved on May 24th the 1483 resolution, which represents the legitimation of the British-American occupation of Iraq by the international organism, and ends the almost 13 years old embargo on the Arab country. The resolution, approved by 14 votes (only the representative of Syria was not present in the poll), grants the control on the political and economic reorganization of Iraq to the United States and the United Kingdom. These countries have accepted in return of this recognition a six months prorogation of the Oil for Food Program -which aliviates the pressure on French and Russian companies working in Iraq- alon with a greater role in the countries reconstruction for the United Nations , whose activity in Iraq will not be limited to humanitarian issues. The wave of terrorist attacks has made clear the need to rebuild transatlantic collaboration, although is still too early to say how far this approach will succes.
Offensive of Islamic terrorism in Saudi Arabia (until the 23rd 2003f May 2003f 2003)
The visit of the US Secretary of State, Collin Powell, to Saudi Arabia was preceeded by a violent terror attack in a residential district of Riyadh inhabited basically by foreigners. According to the sources, the attach has left between 34 and 91 deaths. The recent announcement made by the Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, on the withdraw of the US troops based in Saudi Arabia was interpreted like a Washington's gesture towards Riyad, pursuing a reduction of the pressure on the Saudi government by wide sectors of the population opposing the presence of American troops in Saudi soil, but also like a rift between both countries by the disagreements dealing with Iraq, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and oil. The United States, on the other hand, demands a narrow collaboration to Saudi Arabia in the fight against terrorism, even more when has been known that the nine members of the cell that carried out the attack on Monday were on the verge of being disarticulated a week before, but they managed to escape. In spite of the optimist perspective of the Department of State report released in April on the international course of war on terrorism, Al Qaeda and other radical Islamic groups (in Chechenia, the Philippines and Israel) have shown themselves very active in the last days. Both the poor results of the Roadmap to Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the prolongation of the US military presence in Iraq beyond the fall of Saddam Hussein are factors that with no doubt contribute to strengthen those groups.
Détente between India and Pakistan (until the 14th 2003f May 2003f 2003)
At the beginning of this week Pakistani prime minister, Zafarullah Khan Jamali, sent an offer of dialogue to his Indian homologous, Atal Vehari Vajpayee, which includes the interchange of high commissioners, the opening of air, sea and land transports between both countries and the recovery of commercial and sport intiatives within the framework of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The proposal, coincident with the arrival to Islamabad of the American representative Richard Armitage, who will also visit New Dehli, has been received with moderate satisfaction by the Indian government, after 17 months since the rupture of relations in December 2001, in the occasion of the assault carried out by Islamic rebels, supposedly supported by Pakistan, to the parliament of New Dehli. The just started dialogue will deal with three great subjects: border issues (with special attention to the Kashmir question), terrorism and nuclear race. The control of Islamic groups that attack Indian territory from their quarters in Pakistan, specially in the region of Kashmir, is the most controversial point. The easining of relations between India and Pakistan moves away, in the short term, the possibility of a great scale conflict between both Southern Asian countries, that could include the use of nuclear weapons.
Hunger in the world: another mass destruction weapon? (until the 07th 2003f May 2003f 2003)
In mid May the 29ª Session of the Committee on World Food Security meets in Rome, under the auspices of FAO. In an international environment totally overturned to international war on terrorism in which the Bush Administration advocates for the pious conservadurism as the doctrine for international cooperation with developing countries, the objectives marked by the 1996 World Food Summit are far away of being fulfilled. International organisms related to the eradication of hunger in the world base in more than 800 million the people who directly suffer the consequences of endemic hunger, while more than one billion are affected by diseases associated to undernourishment. In this sense, is esteemed that if developing countries could increase 1% their participation in the world exports, 128 million people would succeed to reach acceptable living standars, which in Africa would mean five times more than the addition of all the official aid received from developed countries. Despite not being an underlined issue in the international agenda due to the daily basis of these facts, the international community should not be accustomed to the daily death of 30,000 children by problems related to undernourishment.
Presidential Elections in Argentina (until the 30th 2003f April 2003f 2003)
The Argentine presidential elections to be held on April 27th are the first ones since the restoration of democracy in 1983 where none of the candidates obtains more than 20% of the vote intention. The crisis of the political and economic system has transformed the political map of the country, with a "radicalismo" in the heat of a deep crisis since the landslide of the De La Rua government and a "justicialismo" fragmented in three candidacies, one of them headed by the former president Carlos S. Menem. The lack of solutions provided by the political class to face the consequences of the worst financial crisis in Argentine history has generated an extended popular displeasure towards the classic parties and an increase of poverty. In the external dimension, the Argentine crisis last year has contributed to a great extent to paralyze the process of regional integration in the MERCOSUR, and has influenced decisively the economic results of the Latin American regional set. Any resulting government will have as a priority the fight against poverty and the conclusion of agreements with international financial organisms that allow the country to surpass a crisis that has forced millions of Argentineans to look for alternative forms of social and economic organization.
Athens Informal European Council (until the 23rd 2003f April 2003f 2003)
On April 16th, the same day when the provisional government of Iraq was constituted, the Government and Chiefs of State of the 15 European Union member countries and those of the 10 countries that will join it in 2004 hold in Athens the summit in which the greater extension of the UE since the beggining of the European unification process has been sealed. Slovenia, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Malta and Cyprus conclude therefore a long process of negotiation and application of structural reforms to adapt as far as possible to the social, economic and legal frame of the European Union in views to their next accession. The meeting in Athens, which was attended by the UN General Secretary, also served to reach a consensus on the defense of the role that the UN should play within the reconstruction of Iraq in the aftermarth of the "Operation Iraqi Freedom". This agreement reached by France, Germany, United Kingdom and Spain does not hide the wounds opened in the EU as a result of the divergences in the occasion of the war in Iraq. Extended Europe will gather more than 450 million inhabitants and will be, by the volume of merchandise, the most important commercial block in the world.
The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome switches on international health alarms (until the 19th 2003f April 2003f 2003)
Early in March the Communicable Diseases Surveillance & Response Office of the World Health Organization alerted on the detection of a new disease outbreak in the Chinese Guangdong region and Hong Kong city. This disease, transmitted by a coronavirus, causes the classic symptoms of pneumonia, although it resists the classic treatments. The WHO defines it as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (or Atypical Pneumonia), and has warned the worldwide sanitary authorities on the danger of this virus. Although it does not present a high mortality rate, its morbidity (that is, the infection rate) remains remarkable. The epidemic outbreak began in China in November 2002, although Beijing did not inform on the situation until February 2003. Since then the SARS has extended to Southeast Asia (specially Vietnam, Singapur, Thailand and Malaysia), Canada, United States and some European Union countries, and is becoming an issue of concern for Eastern and Southeast Asian economies.
US Warns Iran and Syria on the Iraqi conflict (until the 07th 2003f April 2003f 2003)
Started the 3rd week since the beginning of the attacks to Iraq, the number of civilian victims has dramatically increased in the last days to more than 600 people. This fact shows that although the Bush Administration has tried to convince the public opinion that technological superiority was going to allow a "clean" and fast war, this type of war simply does not exist. The expected rise of the Shiite majority in Southern Iraq, as happened in 1991, has not taken place, and some analysts foresee a possible Vietnamization of the Iraqian conflict. The warnings recently sent to Iran and Syria by the Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, and the Secretary of State, Collin Powell, requiring them to abstain from any intervention in Iraq, are symptomatic of the serious destabilizing effects of the stagnation of a conflict whose roots lay in the new US defense and foreign policy doctrine, summarized in the report "Rebuilding America's Defenses". The warning to Syria, accused by the United States to facilitate material for military use to Iraq, has received a forceful answer of Damascus, where as in Bagdad Arab nationalism is very strong, and has put on alert the Arab League. On the other hand the United States requires Iran to stop its nuclear program and to forbid the entrance in Iraq from Iranian territory of the Badr Corps (Shiite Iraqi combatants linked to the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq), who unlike Kurdish pesh merga militias the United States considers enemies. The application of the principle of the preemptive war within the framework of the new US National Security Strategy has represented a the definitive breaking up of the UN centered international system issued from World War II.
Kurdistan in the Middle East geopolitical future (until the 02nd 2003f April 2003f 2003)
Kurdistan, a very important strategic zone distributed by the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres among the present territories of Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Armenia and Azerbaijan is mainly inhabited by an Indo-European people of the North-Western Iranian group. From Kurdish territory a great part of the Middle East hydric resources can be easily controlled, and its subsoil hides 1/3 of the Iraqian petroleum reserves and the practical totality of the modest Turkish production of crude. Once the war in Iraq has started, one of the greater geostrategic challenges of the conflict in its immediate later phase will be the definition of the Iraqian Kurdistan statute. Enjoying a wide autonomy since the zones of aerial exclusion were decreed in 1991, the Democratic Party of Kurdistan and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan are the main parties whose militias, known as "pesh merga" (those that face death) have controlled the region and have established an autonomous government. Considering the precedent of the attack with chemical weapons by Saddam's army in the town of Halabja at the late 80's, the Kurds are living with special fear the effects of the present war. The United States have chosen to play the Kurd card, supporting the pesh merga with bombings on the Iraqi positions and, mainly, in the territory controlled by the terrorist group Answar ul-Islam linked to Al-Qaeda, in Northeastern Iraq. However, Turkey, that for decades has been fighting the Kurds of the Workers Party of Kurdistan (PKK) in the Southeast of the country, fears that a big wave of refugees coming from Iraq desestabilizes its precarious economy, and aggravates further the Kurd issue face to a possible independence of Iraqian Kurdistan, wich Turkish Kurds would be keen to join. Failed the negotiations between Ankara and Washington for the deployement of US troops in Northern Iraq from Turkish soil, this country has reiterated that it will send its own troops to avoid that the Iraqian crisis affects Turkey irremediably. Iraqian Kurds have yet warned they would open a "war within the war" against the Turks if they decide to do so.
Ultimatum of US president Bush to Sadam Hussein (until the 26th 2003f March 2003f 2003)
In a solemn speech, president Bush presented on March 17th an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein, according which he must leave Iraq in a maximum term of 48 hours. Since that moment the United States will consider theirselves legitimized to undertake a military action against Iraq at any time. In the meeting hold on Sunday among the presidents of the United States and Spain and British prime minister in the Azores islands, these leaders decided not to present their joint proposal of resolution in the Security Council, face to the French announcement to exert its right to veto on any decision that authorizes an immediate military solution to the crisis without considering more time for the UN sponsored inspections. This position had yet been expressed in the joint France-Russi-Germany memorandum presented to the UN Secretary General in late February. A counterproposal of Chile, one of the six countries of the Security Council that had not decided their vote if a new resolution was passed, was rejected by the White House spokesman a few minutes after being presented on 14th March. Facing the announcement of the imminent military operation announced by president Bush, Koffi Annan has ordered all the United Nations employees and dependent personnel to leave Iraq, including those working in humanitarian mission, whereas the border of Iraq with Syria begins to be collapsed by the arrival of hundreds of refugees fleeing from the start of the hostilities. In Kuwait the demilitarized strip in the border with Iraq was taken by marines some days ago, whereas in the Northern front, in Turkey, the parliament decides on Tuesday, three days after the relief of Gul by Erdogan as the prime minister, if it allows the use of the Turkish soil by US military to launch an offensive on Iraq. This unilateral decision of the United States, seized with the support of a small group of countries but without the permission of the United Nations, represents the materialization of a rupture of the international system, that has been developing since 11 S.
Malta accepts in referendum to join the European Union (until the 18th 2003f March 2003f 2003)
On 9th March Malta became the first candidate country to join the European Union that has celebrated a referendum for its adhesion, which will be followed by another one in Slovenia at the end of March. Although 54% of the voices have been in favor of integration, almost 44% have voted against, being Malta the second country of among those that have celebrated a referendum of these characteristics with smaller acceptance to his entrance in the EU, only behind Sweden where only 52% of the votes were for "yes". Actually the referendum has been polarized by the opposed positions of the two main parties, something atypical in other EU countries where wide consensus among major representative political forces exists on the entailment to the European Union. The Nationalist Party, in the government, has campaigned for "yes", whereas the Labour Party has defended the negative vote and his leader has even expressed their will to revoke the result of the referendum if they win the legislative polls foreseen for April. With a participation that has reached 91% of the census in a country in which the mobilization of the electorate is traditionally high, Malta has initiated a process of referendums that will meet 9 out of the 10 candidate countries and will conclude on 20th September in Latvia.
Extraordinary Summit of the Arab League: the Arab world face to the Iraqi issue (until the 11th 2003f March 2003f 2003)
The extraordinary summit of the Arab League hold last week in the Egyptian balneary of Shar el Sheikh has underlined the existence of three divergent positions among the Arab countries regarding Iraq. A small group of countries headed by Kuwait and the Arab Emirates is in favor of an immediate withdraw of Saddam Hussein, for considering him a threat to regional stability. In this sense pointed the Arab Emirates initiative, that proposed the exile of the Iraqian dictator and his closer collaborators within a term of 15 days. In the opposite side laid countries like Syria or Libya, that in spite of maintaining uneasy relations with the Bagdad regime, see in the US intervention an act of aggression to the Arab world, with the undeclared target to gain the geostrategic control of the region and its oil resources. The 3rd position, called moderate, was the one finally adopted at the end of the summit, and it is defended by Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan among other countries. These countries plead basically for an intermediate solution, aligning with the French-German and Russian proposal (France and Russia have already announced their veto to the proposal of resolution presented by United Kingdom, the United States and Spain) considering that any armed intervention must necessarily be supported by the UN Security Council. The Arab governments are under a strong pressure by their public opinion, as well as by the rising islamist opposition fed by the comparative offense produced by the Israeli breach of the UN Security Council resolutions concerning the Palestinian issue. These Arab governments have been able to reach a basic agreement that has not hiden the great divergences existing among them by the nature of their regimes and on such important issues of the international agenda as the Iraqian question.
Spain in the current international conjuncture (until the 05th 2003f March 2003f 2003)
The intense diplomatic agenda of the Spanish president, Jose Maria Aznar, in the last days has brought him to maintain meetings with Bush, Chirac, Blair, Berlusconi, John Paul II, Vicente Fox and contacts with Putin and Ricardo Lagos among other world leaders. Spain, the second European Union more extensive country and fifth economy, has increased its international presence in the occasion of the entrance as a temporary member to the UN Security Council. However, the foreign policy directives undertaken by the Popular Party’s government from one year ago to present, mean a breaking of the priorities in the lines of continuity of the Spanish foreign policy since the transition to democracy, at the end of the 70’s: Europe, the Mediterranean and Ibero America. These changes have been deeply influenced by the impact of the September 11th terror attacks on the in the international relations system, with the set up of an antiterrorist world-wide coalition headed by the United States and actively supported by Spain, along with the might of the Asian continent, that drove in 2000 to the adoption of a Framework Plan for the Asia Pacific region by the Spanish government. The Spain’s positioning as a convinced ally of the United States and the United Kingdom on the Iraqian question has materialized in the presentation of a joint resolution in the Security Council. This fact is affecting directly to the Spanish relations with the French-German axis, and even the own internal EU evolutions. The maintenance of the divergences between the EU members on the problem of the Iraqian disarmament has shown the reduced credibility of the agreement reached in the Extraordinary European Council of Brussels on February 17th. The alliance with Washington, that mediated in the Spanish-Moroccan crisis by the small barren island of Perejil, has caused an approach with Morocco. The return of the ambassadors and the meetings between the Foreign Ministers, Benaissa and Palacio, have opened a new dialogue channel just when before next summer a new resolution of the UN Security Council on the Western Sahara issue will have to be adopted. Concerning the Spanish relations with Latin America, the attacks perpetrated against the Spanish embassy and the office of Colombian interests in Caracas, few days after ignited declarations of president Chavez against Aznar and Uribe, are attributable among other factors to the distrust that generates the current change of the Spanish foreign policy within a region where the model of liberal democracy is in crisis. The government, nevertheless, must face serious internal problems, like the strong opposition of up to 75% of the public opinion, that disapproves its present policy towards Iraq, as showed the rallies on February 15th, that mobilized more than 4 million Spaniards. Also the catastrophe of the oil tanker Prestige in front of the coasts of Galicia has originated a mobilization of the affected civil society around the Platform Nunca Mais, critic with the action of the government, and to a strong awareness of the Spanish society on environmental issues. Dealing with the Basque Country, the hardening of the antiterrorist law and its strict application by the state have lead to the ilegalization of the pro-ETA Batasuna party, and to the closing of the only newspaper fully published in euskera language, under the accusation to be comprised in the economic framework of ETA. The police fight against this terrorist organization has effective results, but it is not sufficient to solve a problem with deep social roots. In this scrambled social-political context, in March municipal elections are hold. They can provide useful indicators on the electoral wearing down that has experienced the government in the last months, in views to the legislative elections of March 2004.
World-wide public opinion expresses its opposition to a preventive war on Iraq (until the 27th 2003f February 2003f 2003)
On February 15th a big wave of rallies against an unilateral attack of the United States against Iraq, made clear that the economic globalization has yielded the passage to the social one. The new information and communication technologies, and specially the Internet, allowed the coordination of the pacifist movement to a planetary level, and brought to the streets more than 10 million citizens to demonstrate against a preventive war whose arguments given by the Bush Administration do not convince the world-wide public opinion. Indeed, the debate opened as a result of the new US national security strategy, that justifies and anticipates the use of force against those countries that can suppose a threat to the US or their allies interests in the base of not always totally confirmed indications, opens an unprecedented breach within the international law and is an expression of the feeling of vulnerability that has settled between the North American society since 2001 September 11th. This issue has opened an important debate within the international relations analysts community. The acceptance of the preventive war principle supposes with no doubt a split of the current international legality, whose generalization could open the Box of Pandora by the proliferation of conflicts based on subjective threats that can entail. We offer a series of links to research centers on international relations and armaments proliferation, through which a monitoring of this interesting and important debate can be done.
War on Iraq opens an unprecedented crisis among NATO allies (until the 19th 2003f February 2003f 2003)
In February 6th, a day after the appearance of the US Secretary of State Collin Powell to the United Nations to bring proofs on the Iraqi breach of the UN Security Council resolutions dealing with an active cooperation in their disarmament, the United States displayed a proposal to their NATO allies in order to activate the emergency plans to defend Turkey (member State of NATO) of a possible Iraqian attack. This proposal, reinforced on 10 February when Turkey invoked article IV, has been rejected by France, Belgium and Germany until all the diplomatic channels are exhausted in the Iraqi issue. This situation has opened the greater crisis in the history of NATO since its creation in April 1949, and immersed in a quest of a new identity since the end of the Cold War. The report that on 14 February will present to the UN Security Council the Chief of the UN Observers, Hans Blix, and the General Director of the IAEA, Mohamed el Baradei, after their recent visit to Iraq, will mark probably a point of flexion in the outcome of the crisis. The staging of the differences between the allies of NATO, however, puts in evidence the divergent line that in the matter of foreign policy has been opened between the "Old Europe" (in textual words of Donald Rumsfeld) and the United States since the terrorist attacks of 11-S. Within the intensification of the diplomatic activity framework of these last days, the visit of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to Paris and the joint declaration of Russia, France and Germany regarding the necessity of a new UN Security Council resolution for the beginning of a possible attack to Iraq, approaches Moscow to the French-German positions. On the other hand, with almost 3/4 of the European public opinion against the war, the division generated between European Union governments on the Iraqian question has been materialized in a letter of support to the aggressive American policy towards Iraq signed by 8 European leaders (among them Blair, Berlusconi and Aznar) This fact put in evidence once again how far is still Europe to speak with an single voice in the international fora.
Conflict in Cote d'Ivoire: Ethnicity and inheritance of colonialism (until the 12th 2003f February 2003f 2003)
The night of September 18th 2002 a military insurrection in Cote d'Ivoire brings out the weakness of the political structures of the country, considered the most stable one in Western Africa. The Ivorian population is divided in four great ethnic groups (Akan in the Southeast, Krou in the Southwest, Mandes in the Northwest and Volta in the Northeast), composed as well by more than 60 tribes. The political elite, made up basically by the Akan (the majority ethnic group), developed from the beggining of the 90's the concept of "ivoirité", on which has been based the Ivorian national identity in the last decade. Actually this concept hides a dominion of ethnicity as a determining factor of the political system, and as an instrument to exclude other rivals from competitive policy on the basis of ethnic criteria to consider them "foreigners". On the other hand, the fall of cocoa prices in the 90's (Cote d'Ivoire is the first world-wide exporter), caused a serious economic breakdown that worsened the political and institutional fracture. The mediation attempts of the Economic Community of Western African States during November did not fulfilled the expected results. France, the former metropolis that presided over the UN Security Council in January, forced the Agreement of Linas Marcoussis signed between the rebellious groups and the government of Laurent Gbagbo in January 24th 2003. At his arrival to Abidjan, however, president Gbagbo found the opposition of the Army to accept that agreement, and declared that it only represented the basis to start peace conversations. Amid accusations of interference of other countries in the region, specially Burkina Faso and Liberia (some of whose ethnic groups are also represented in Cote d'Ivoire), a real risk of outbreak of an open conflict between the North and the South of the country exist. This fact would hardly affect the already punished region of Western Africa. Like in so many other conflicts in the African continent, the inheritance of colonialism, which created artificial states whose borders do not respond to ethnic realities, makes clear itself once again.
Sharon's Victory in the Israel Polls (until the 04th 2003f February 2003f 2003)
The elections of Tuesday 28th in Israel have resulted in a clear victory of Sharon's Likud, that doubles in benches the Labor leaded by Mitzna. The third most voted list has been a lay reformist party, Shinui, supported by wide sectors of progressive youth. However, the key for governability lays in the alliances reached with the ten remaining parties represented in the Knesset, most of them religious. Another significant element of the inner political process in Israel has been the highest abstention ever registered in a legislative poll, that has raised up to 31,5%. This rate has been much higher among the pressed Arab-Israeli community, who had been traditionally integrated in Israeli lay parties. Main issues in the campaign have dealt with the security policy, war against terrorism, the economic crisis and the psychological impact exerted by the war against Iraq on the Israeli population. Meanwhile, in the electoral day, nine Palestinians died (two of them minor) and other 15 people, including a France Press reporter, were wounded. The State of the Union Adress by president Bush, whose popularity has diminished drastically in the last weeks due to the increasing popular rejection to an unilateral intervention in Iraq, has been clear in the maintenance of the current unilateralist line of Washington. Though the speech did no mention to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Bush Administration provides military and economic support to Israel within the framework of the global war against on terror. The European Union, with a foreign policy divided on US policy towards Iraq between the French-German and Spanish-British axes, maintains a wider consensus on a critical position with regard to Israel in the Palestine question. This fact has driven to diplomatic tensions between the Sharon government and several European countries, including the United Kingdom, in the last weeks. Within this frame, the continuity of a hard policy towards the Palestinians by the ballot boxes reinforced government of Likud is predictable. Meanwhile the UN guided peace process started in Madrid in late 1991 remains frozen in the interest of the global war on terrorism.
Abkhazia: a low intensity conflict in the Caucasus (until the 29th 2003f January 2003f 2003)
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991, social unrest and the attempts by the local Abkhazian authorities to separate from the Republic of Georgia began. The tension escalated into a series of armed confrontations in the summer of 1992 when the Government of Georgia deployed 2,000 troops in Abkhazia. Two failed ceasefire agreements were achieved on September 3rd 1992 (Moscow) and on July 27th 1993 (Gudauta). The outbreak of inter-ethnic fighting in the North Caucasus region of the Russian Federation since november 1992 added another dimension to the already tense situation in the area, so that on August 24th 1993 the Security Council, by resolution 858 (1993), decided to establish the United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG). On May 14th 1994, after several rounds of difficult negotiations chaired by the Secretary-General's Special Envoy, the Georgian and Abkhaz sides signed in Moscow the Agreement on a Ceasefire and Separation of Forces, agreeing to the deployment of a peacekeeping force of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to monitor compliance, with UNOMIG monitoring implementation of the agreement and observing the operation of the CIS force. Since then the general situation in the conflict zone has remained mostly calm but very volatile. Criminality and lawlessness continue to be major destabilizing factors, putting in jeopardy the overall security situation. Bad relations between Russia, that informally supports the secessionist Abkhasians, and Georgia, whose Army has been instructed during the last months by US assessors and in whose territory -the Pankisi Valley- Russia claims that Chechen terrorists seek refuge, remain as one of the main destabilizing factors in the Caucasus region.
General indefinite strike in Venezuela (until the 22nd 2003f January 2003f 2003)
The uninterrupted general strike that since the begining of December affects Venezuela has lead to a situation of social tension only comparable to the one experienced during the failed coup d'etat of April 2002. Special relevance has the strike in the oil industry, that represents almost three quarters of Venezuela's exports. Actually, the crisis in Iraq and the situation in Venezuela, have lead to the raise up to 28 US$ per barrel of the international prices of petrol, despite the agreement achieved by OPEC last week to increase the Saudi production in one million barrels per day in order to replace the Venezuelan oil. The opponents to president Chavez, grouped around the Coordinadora Democratica de Accion Civica, reunite the employer's associations, some trade union groups and sectors of the Army, while the president is supported by the bolivarian circles, the main body of the Army and some popular sectors. The call to tributary disobedience, the strike announced by the professors in education, or the call rejected by the Executive for a consultative referendum on the continuity of Chavez in power, have been some of the measures that have put the government on alert, who has appealed some of these measures to the Supreme Court of Justice to avoid the total paralyzation of the country. In the regional context, two representatives of the opposition groups have traveled to Washington to ask for a US lead mediation plan that maintains in the margin Colombia and Brazil. Indeed one of the first international gestures of new Brazilian president Lula was the shipment of a gasoline oil tanker in support to Chavez, whose foreign policy of approach to Cuba and of independence with respect to Washington's Latin America policies troubles the US Administration. The Brazilian leaded project to set up the Group of Venezuela's Friend Countries during the new Equatorian president's (Lucio Gutierrez) enter upon office ceremony, represents the establishment of a new international forum composed by Chile, Mexico, Spain, Portugal, Brazil and the United States to support the OAS general secretary's mediation efforts between the Chavez government and opposition groups. Learn more details on the situation in Venezuela through the links provided.
War winds in the Middle East (until the 15th 2003f January 2003f 2003)
The ultimatum of the US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, requesting the immediate retreat of Sadam Hussein as the only solution to avoid the war against Iraq, draws a more and more close warlike scene of unforseeable consequences in the Middle East. Although the inspectors of the UNMOVIC, headed by Hans Blix, have not found evidences of massive destruction arsenals, Washington insists on the destabilizing danger that the Iraqian regime represents for the region. In this context, the attack that in January 5th left 24 dead and 126 wounded in Tel Aviv, three weeks before the crucial Israeli general elections, has had like immediate consequence the adoption of forceful political measures against the Palestine National Authority by the government of Sharon. Among them is specially relevant the prohibition to travel to London in mid January to the Palestinian ministers of Development and International Cooperation, Nabil Shaat, and of Finances, Salam Fayed, in the occasion of a debate promoted by Tony Blair on the necessary reforms to be implemented by the PNA. This fact caused a verbal confrontation between the British ministry of the Foreign Office, Jack Straw, and his Israeli homologous, Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel also announced the hardening of control measures in the occupied teeritories and the intensification of "selective murders" of Palestinian radical leaders. On the other hand on January 3rd an Israeli delegation traveled to Washington with the aim to negotiate a 12 billion dollars aid to face the expenses generated by the 2nd Intifada and the set up of preventive defense measures face to the imminent US intervention in Iraq. Turkey, another important regional actor, has announced that will double the number of soldiers in the strip occupied in Northern Iraq to guarantee its interests, whereas his recently chosen prime minister, Abdullah Gül, is traveling all over the region in a tour that has driven him to Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
North Korea expells the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors (until the 09th 2003f January 2003f 2003)
The last week of December the North Korean government expelled the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors that, since November 1994 after the signature of the Agreed Framework between the United States and North Korea for the freezing of Pyongyang's nuclear program, supervised its fulfillment. The inclusion of North Korea in the "Axis of Evil" and the suspension from early December of the oil shipments, are the reasons argued by Pyongyang to consider the 1994 Agreed Framework expired, to expell the IAEA observers and to retake its nuclear program. In a momentum in which Washington is concentrating its military power in the Persian Gulf to overthrow Saddam Hussein, Kim Jong Il seems willing to take political advantage of the situation. The US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, announced however that the United States has capacity to win two simultaneous wars. This declarations caused an immediate reaction in Beijing, face to the threat of a American armed intervention against an ally and close to Chinese borders. The South Korean elected president, Roh Moo-hyun, who won the elections of December 20th, will have to face a public opinion that demands a revision of the status of the US troops in South Korea, and by a deepening in the policies of reunification directed by the own Koreans.
Copenhagen European Council: the Summit of the European Reunification (until the 30th 2003f December 2003f 2002)
On November 18th, just a month before the European Council of Copenhagen, the 1st May 2004 was fixed as the definitive date for the incorporation of 10 new partners to the European Union: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Cyprus and Malta. For other two, Romania and Bulgaria, the European Council decided to extend the pre-access aids and to give a definitive impulse to the negotiations in views to their accession in 2007. Turkey has been the only candidate country to whom, in spite of the efforts made for the adaptation to the legal and human rights frame of the European Union, a date of incorporation has not yet been given. This issue has opened an important debate among sectors of the European Christian democracy, that have expressed openly their reluctance that a Muslim country becomes integrated in a "Christian club" like the EU. This vision, however, ignores the 80 years old westernization of Turkey and represents the delay of an historical opportunity to build a more integrating and cooperative European Union with the Islamic world. The EU growth, however, has not been free of problems. The blockade in the negotiations for the reunification of Cyprus has implied that by now only the Southern half of the island, governed by the Greek Cypriot Glafkos Clerides, will join the EU. Another contentious derivated of the new accessions is the final statute of the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, in the Baltic Sea. Nailed between Poland and Lithuania, the inhabitants of Kaliningrad will unavoidably have to cross EU territory in 2004 to reach by land other regions of the Russian Federation. The signature of the Accession Treaty of the 10 new members, whose draft is being completed, should be approved according to the forecasted calendar by April 16th 2003 in Athens, so that during 2003 and the beggining of 2004 it should be ratified by the respective countries and enter into force on May 1st of that year. The European Council of Copenhagen, baptized as the Europe's reunification one, has represented a new advance in the concretion of the old dream of continental integration, though it should not be the last one.
US troops arrive to East Africa to fight international terrorism (until the 18th 2002f December 2002f 2002)
The terrorist attacks against the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam in 1998 and the attacks in Kenya against Israeli tourist objectives in late November shows that East Africa, along with the Middle East, Central Asia and Southeast Asia, has become one of the hot zones of the international war against terrorism. This region is historically linked to the commercial routes of the Arabs, and Islam was introduced in the 9th century. Kenya is a country accounting a growing total Muslim community of five million (out of a total population of 32 million). A few people within this community has experienced during the 90's a consolidation of Islamic radicalism. Tanzania has a mainly Muslim population (about 3/5 of the total) and a strong Arab influence in its coasts. As in Kenya, a growth of radical interpretations of Islam has been registered in the last decade. In spite of being two relatively stable countries considering their regional context, the terrorist groups linked to Al Qaeda have found a refuge in the zone. This fact has pushed the Bush Administration to deploy about 800 military troops in Djibuti, with the mission to persecute the terrorist cells in Eastern Africa, specially in Somalia, where the nonexistence of the State since the overthrow of Siad Barre in January 1991 has created the suitable conditions for their proliferation. In this regional context of vulnerability to the international terrorism, Kenya will held presidential elections in December 27th.
Geostrategy in Asia-Pacific: the China-Russia Summit (until the 11th 2002f December 2002f 2002)
The Treaty of Cooperation and Friendship signed between Russia and China in June 2001 set up new basis in the collaboration between both countries to face the so-called "US hegemonism", specially in the region of Asia Pacific. This treaty, compared to the one signed in 1950 between the then Soviet Union and the young People's Republic of China, nevertheless has a reach much more limited than that one. Although it establishes a system of consultations and deepens in the line of the military cooperation, it includes no provisions for mutual defense in the event of attack by a third country. Within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (made up by 3 out of the 5 former Soviet republics of Central, in addition to Russia and China) the fight against terrorism and the cross-border cooperation have become high-priority matters. In the commercial field, the relations between both countries have experienced a remarkable growth too: in 2001 Russia became the eighth commercial partner of China, raising three positions with respect to the previous year, whereas in 2002 the growth of commercial interchange was of 20% compared to 2001. Nevertheless, the main dimension of the new Sino-Russian relations remain of strategic order, and are based on the national interest of both countries as reflected in the joint statement issued from the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Jiang Zemin between the 1st-3rd December. The existence of Islamic separatist movements in Chechnia and Xinjiang, the technological interchange, the energy policy and the opposition to the American unilateralism in political and military matters such as the anti-ballistic missiles system and Iraq, have reinforced the axis Moscow-Beijing in spite of their historical mistrusts.
Lucio Gutierrez wins presidential elections in Ecuador (until the 04th 2002f December 2002f 2002)
On November 24th the second turn of the presidential elections was hold in Ecuador. The leaders competing for the post were the multimillionaire Alvaro Fernando Noboa Ponton, of the Partido Renovador Institucional Acción Nacional, and the former participant in a coup d'état colonel Edwin Gutierrez Borbua, of the Partido Sociedad Patriotica. With 57.14% of the valid votes to his favor, Lucio Gutierrez has consolidated like the elected president of the country. The deep economic crisis that crossed Ecuador in 1999, with the highest inflation rate in Latin America, an endemic poverty between wide sectors of the society and an external debt next to 16,000 million dollars, drove on January 21st 2000 to a bloodless rising led by this leftist colonel against the government of Jamil Mahuad, with the full support of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador who played an important role. The blow forced the president Mahuad to flee the country, but after a few days of political confusion the then vice-president and present outgoing president, Gustavo Noboa Bejarano, took oath as head of the State. In a regional political context in which the governments have ignored in many occasions an explosive social reality and have avoided the structural reforms necessary to correct it, the victory of Gutierrez in Ecuador has proved once again the failure of the traditional political parties, as already happened in Venezuela, Bolivia and, with some resemblances, in Brazil. In this sense is the same model of democracy that seems to be changing in Latin America.
UN Inspectors come back to Iraq (until the 26th 2002f November 2002f 2002)
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and UN weapons inspectors are set to return to Iraq for on-site inspections under terms of the 1441 resolution adopted Friday, 8 November, by the UN Security Council. The works of the UN were interrupted in 1998 because Bagdad accused some inspectors to be linked to US intelligence. The 1441 resolution, that demands Iraq to "cooperate immediately, unconditionally, and actively" with the IAEA and the United Nations Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), smooths the terms of the US exigencies, although Washington keeps officially the option of the unilateral attack if in his opinion Iraq puts some impediment to the inspectors. According to the results of the meeting hold on November 19th between the executive director of the UNMOVIC, Hans Blix, and the general director of the AIEA, Mohamed ElBaradei, with representatives of the Iraqi government, the inspectors (mainly from Arab countries) will arrive to Bagdad on November 27th, and will set up offices in Mossul and Basra. Iraq has guaranteed that by December 8th will deliver to the inspectors a detailed report on his weapon development plans. Within this frame, in the NATO conference hold in Prague, George Bush has requested to his allies financial support for an eventual attack, criterion rejected by the European allies and Turkey, where recently the moderate islamists won the elections. Iran and the Arab countries also oppose an unilateral attack, leaving Israel as the single firm ally of Washington in the region.
Closing of the 16th Congress of the Communist Party of China (until the 20th 2002f November 2002f 2002)
Thursday 14th November the 16th Congress of the Communist Party of China ended in Beijing. Within the frame of an accelerated process of adaptation to capitalism, integrated a year ago to the World Trade Organization and with an economic growth close to two digits, the Communist Party has chosen to deepen in the political line initiated by Deng Xiaoping in the 80's. With no charismatic figures among the new candidates, the new government will likely be controlled by a collegiate direction whose visible head will be Hu Jintao, a technocrat who in 1982, at the age of 39, became the youngest member of the Central Committee, and that up to date hold the position of vice-president undr the guidelines of Jiang Zemin. The generational relief that takes place after the 16th Congress brings to power the so-called "fourth generation of leaders", made up by the people who lived the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976) in their youth. The social change experienced in China, with the appearance of private businessmen who will be allowed to join the Communist Party, can favor in the mid term a process of democratization, always conditioned by the predisposition of the Party to yield parcels of power. In the international scope, the increasing Chinese presence in the multilateral fora and the impressive economic potential are on the way to turn the country a superpower. From its permanent seat in the Security Council, China has maintained an initial opposition to the US policy towards Iraq, although it approved resolution 1441 (consensuated among the five permanent members) to avoid US interferences to his policy in the Tibet and the Xinjiang province of Muslim majority, whose independentist groups Beijing relates to the international networks of terrorism.
Islamists win the elections in Turkey (until the 14th 2002f November 2002f 2002)
The elections in Turkey last Sunday have resulted in the absolute majority of the islamist Party of Justice and Development (AKP), led by the former mayor of Istambul Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The center left wing Republican Popular Party has been the only other party to obtain parliamentary representation (179 deputies) by surpassing the restrictive percentage imposed by the Turkish electoral law, that demands a minimum of 10% of the suffrages for the obtaining of seats. This electoral law, devised to prevent the access to the parliament of the Kurd parties, has determined that 40% of the Turks are not represented in their legislative chamber. The result of these elections brings the country to a crossroad with no precedents since the foundation of modern Turkey by Mustapha Kemal Atatürk, with the abolition of the Sultanate and the introduction of modernizing measures that made of Turkey the first lay State of Muslim majority. Indeed the preservation of the laicism of the State has brough little democratic situations. Erdogan, for example, has not been able to concur to these elections for being disqualified as a result of a judicial sentence, that brought him to spend four months in jail in 1998, accused of "incitement to religious hate" for reading an Islamic poem in a political meeting. The arrival of the AKP to the government, that with 363 seats out of the 550 of the Turkish Parliament is only three seats away from the majority required to introduce constitutional reforms, opens numerous questions with respect to the foreign policy that Ankara will adopt from now on. Two issues are specially relevant: the North American policy towards Iraq and in the Turkish relations with the European Union, after that the EU has not even fixed a date for the beginning of the negotiations for the admission of Turkey, in spite of the efforts made by this country.
Ireland approves the Nice Treaty (until the 05th 2002f November 2002f 2002)
The Irish "NO" to the Nice Treaty in June 2001 opened an institutional crisis within the European Union, whose agreement of minimums reached in the French city on the enlargement eastwards was rejected by Ireland (the only country member of the EU that required the celebration of a referendum to approve it). The openly pro-europeist government of Bertie Ahern decided to call for a second referendum that took place on Sunday 20th October, that resulted in 62.8% of "YES" votes to the Nice Treaty. Once confirmed the approval by all the parliaments of the EU member countries, the negotiations with the 10 candidate countries to join in 2004 are going to end on the spring 2003. During the second half of that year their national parliaments will have to pass the resulting agreements, to become fully integrated to the Union in January of 2004. Surpassed the Irish pitfall the process of enlargement of the European Union seems to have taken a no-back way.
Terrorism shakes Indonesia (until the 22nd 2002f October 2002f 2002)
The brutal attack that this weekend left close to 200 dead and more than 300 injured in a discoteque of the touristic island of Bali has materialized the fears on the activities of the tie terrorist networks linked to Al Qaeda in Southeast Asia, and has shown the difficulties of the Indonesian government to control the extremist groups that take refuge in the country. With up to 85% of Muslims between its more than 225 million inhabitants, Indonesia is the most populated Islamic country in the world, although the immense majority of the population practices a moderate and few politicized Islam. Made up of 17,000 islands, most of them uninhabited, Indonesia is a country that since its independence of the Netherlands in 1949 has had serious difficulties to structure itself like a democratic State. The political control of the Javanese military had to face until 1965 insurrections in the Molucas, from the fundamentalist Islamic movement Dar-Ul-Islam, independentists revolts in Sumatra, Kalimantan and the Celebes and a pseudo-blow of State carried out by the communist party that was followed by a brutal repression that left between half a million and a million and a half deads, and that drove Suharto to power. The transition initiated in 1998 with the resignation of the septuagenerian Suharto, marked by the 1997 Asian crisis, entailed a social outbreak that left several hundreds of deads. In this badly structured social context full of noticeable regional particularisms due to Indonesia's archipelago status, the Islamist movements that until the decade of the 90's developed their activities in the social field, have found financing in international terrorist networks like Al Qaeda, and support among a population more and more reluctant to the American military presence in the region.
Lula wins the first round of the elections in Brazil (until the 16th 2002f October 2002f 2002)
With 98'48% of the scrutinized votes, the candidate of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the clear winner of the Brazilian elections, rubbing the absolute majority with 46'5% of the valid votes. This victory, nevertheless, turns out insufficient to obtain the presidency of the country, and Lula will have to fight a second round on October 27th with pro-government candidate Jose Serra, who in the first round has obtained almost 24% of the scrutinized votes. The international financial markets, strongly shaken these last months by the probable victory of the former trade-unionist Lula in the eighth world economy, have received with skepticism this first electoral result, in spite of the promises of the PT leader to respect the international commitments of Brazil with the IMF -that in August granted a 30 billion US$ credit to Brazil to avoid the collapse of real- and the other financial organisms. In the foreign policy field, some influential ultraconservative sectors in the Bush Administration fear the creation of a Latin American Axis of Evil Castro-Chávez-Lula if the last one finally prevails in the ballot boxes, although the United States has announced that will collaborate with anyone of the candidates. In the political-economic scope, a victory of Lula will probably drive to a deepening of the Latin American regional processes of integration (MERCOSUR, ALADI) and a slow down of Brazilian participation in the FTAA. Within the framework of the EU-MERCOSUR negotiations hold in the Conference of Madrid (May of 2002), Brazil obtained the opening of the European markets to its textile, and the commitment of European political support in some multilateral fora. The effects of a left-wing political turn in Brazil on other countries of the subcontinent are not yet obvious, but they will be confirmed or denied before the spring of 2003, when Ecuador, Peru, Costa Rica, Argentina and Paraguay will have celebrated their respective elections.
Elections in Morocco (until the 07th 2002f October 2002f 2002)
On September 27th took place the first democratic elections in Morocco -even Moroccan parties recognized that the 1997 ones were fraudulent-, and yje first ones under Mohamed VI's kingdom. The results locate the prime minister Abderramán Yussufi's Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP) as the most voted party, with 45 benches (not yet definitive results), as opposed to the 57 won in 1997. The nationalist party Istiqlal -partner of the USFP in the current government- has kept the second place, growing up to 43 benches (32 in 1997). The moderate islamists of the Party of Justice and Development (PJD) are located provisionally as the third political force in the country, with 38 benches, though they share this position with the centrists of the National Regrouping of the Independents, one of the heptapartita coalition's groups within the current Government. Mohamed VI, who preserves wide powers within the political and institutional life of the country (like the appointment of four key ministerial positions), will shortly order the formation of a new government to the most voted party, which will be based again on an wide coalition that will not include the islamists. In spite of a greater transparency regarding the 1997 elections, the fact that participation only reached 52% and that four days after the election the definitive results are still unknown, makes clear that total democratization of the Moroccan political life is not completely mature. On the international field, the political continuity resulting from this elections will not introduce relevant changes in the foreign policy. In this sense the postponement of the meeting between Moroccan Foreign Minister Benaissa and his Spanish counterpart, Ana Palacio, to try to recompose battered relations between both countries due to the crisis on the small barren island of Perejil-Leila and other bilateral contentious and the Western Sahara issue (the Polisario Front considered the inclusion of this territory to the Moroccan electoral map as an "outrage to legality") remain as the main challenges of the Moroccan international relations.
Legislative elections in Germany: impact on foreign policy (until the 01st 2002f October 2002f 2002)
September 22nd elections to the German Federal Parliament have gained a special political relevance within the current international frame. At the moment when the German locomotive's economy growths at a low rate and the victory of Raffarin in France (May 2002) has installed governments of different political colours in the French-German axis, the result of the German elections represents the second consecutive victory of left-wing parties or coalitions in the European Union (on September 15th the Swedish socialdemocrats obtained a comfortable majority of voices). The technical tie between Gerhard Schöeder and Edmund Stoiber has been unbalanced by the important advance of the Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer lead Green party. Fischer, who celebrated joint meetings with Schroeder, guarantees the continuity of the red-green coalition in the government. Dealing with Foreign Policy matters, bilateral relations with the United States are in their worse moment since 1945. The halting in Pakistan and extradition to the United States of Ramzi Binalshibh, brains of the 11-S attacks, has opened a legal conflict between both countries, as far as Germany wants to ask for his extradition to solve pending causes. This fact would avoid the application of the capital punishment against Binalshibh. On the other hand, a declaration of the minister of Justice Hertha Däubler-Gmelin (denied by her) in the heat of the electoral campaign comparing the aggressive foreign policy of Bush with Hitler's one, has clouded more if possible the relations between both countries. On the socially controversial unfolding of the Bundeswher abroad, the government will probably follow the current line to allow it only in pece operations under the mandate of United Nations, and will likely promote an actively pro UN line within the European Union.
Japan Foreing Relations: Koizumi visits North Korea (until the 23rd 2002f September 2002f 2002)
After 2nd World War the Japanese foreign policy had like a priority the normalization of the country within the international framework and the regional scene of Northeast Asia. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 set up a new scene that allowed a more independent foreign policy to the Japanese governments with regard to Washington. Actually a debate on the necessity of a constitutional change had been opened since then, in order to allow Japanese troops to participate in peace operations outside the country. Even the participation of Japan like a permanent member in the Security Council of United Nations was set out. Nevertheless, the attacks of 11-S modified the situation substantially. Japan hurried to assist the US calls of aid, providing a full use of its military facilities in Japan, reinforcing the security around them and offering aid to Pakistan forecasting the wave of refugees coming from Afghanistan during and at the beginning of the Enduring Freedom Operation. However, the antiterrorist law approved by the Japanese Diet in October 2001 offered logistical support to Washington, but ruled out direct military participation. The new approach scene (in spite of the mistrusts) between the United States and China shapes the military policy of Japan, as well as the relations of Japan with North Korea. Indeed Junichiro Koizumi has become the first Japanese Prime Minister to visit Pyongyang on September 17th 2002, to meet Kim Jong Il. On the result of this meeting depends that the United States sends a diplomatic mission to North Korea, included in the list of countries of the Axis of Evil. On the other hand the relations of Japan with Russia remain clouded by the southern Kuril islands issue, while the contacts with Europe have extended their political dimension. Japan, a country that has undertaken structural reforms to leave an unusually long economic crisis, is trying to define its new role in the international scene created on 11-S.
Bush seeks international support to attack Iraq (until the 17th 2002f September 2002f 2002)
Turning the first year from the terrorist attacks in the United States, the hard-liners in Washington seem to have imposed, within the framework of the global war against Terrorism, their criterion regarding the necessity of a pre-emptive strike against Iraq. This possible attack would put in serious danger the integrity of the international coalition forged after 11-S, and could have unpredictable consequences in the Middle East and the Islamic world in general. Russia has declared repeatedly its opposition to an attack on Iraq before exhausting the diplomatic channels (that is to say, return of the inspectors of United Nations). That along with the veto of China and France in the Security Council could block a North American proposal in that sense. Indeed the European Union is trying to take with a single voice its opposition to the attack, at least unilateraly and without a clear mandate by the United Nations. Bush has not found either allies in the Islamic world willing to paticipate in "an adventure on Iraq" as the German chancellor Scröeder qualifyed the eventual attack. Saudi Arabia, country of origin of most of the 11-S hijackers and exporter of a fundamentalist interpretation of Islam (the wahabbism), has seen its relations with the US worsened in the last weeks. Pakistan is sunk in a precarious balance due to its conflict relations with India and to the instability in the post-taliban Afghanistan, in spite of the allied military unfolding. Turkey, the only Islamic country of NATO is immersed in an electoral process where the islamists seem to be the main beneficiaries, besides to fear the consequences of a dismemberment of Iraq that could lead to the creation of a Kurd State. Jordan, by its side, expressed its explicit rejection to a possible armed intervention on Iraq that could ignite the wick in the fields of Palestinian refugees. In this context, only the United Kingdom, in altars to its special relation with Washington and not without some reluctance, and Israel support the combat operation openly.
Johannesburg Summit 2002 - World Summit on Sustainable Development (until the 09th 2002f September 2002f 2002)
The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) hold in Rio de Janeiro on June 1992 set up a precedent on the global focus on environmental issues and its close relation with human development. The results of the Agenda 21, an action plan aiming to design and implement development policies respectful with the environment and one of the most important achievements of the Rio Summit, have proved very limited, mostly because of the lack of commitment by many developed countries. Ten years later, between 24th August and 4th September 2002, the World Summit on Sustainable Development has been hold in the South African city of Johannesburg. This summit has brought together 103 Chiefs of State and other governmental, NGO, civil society and private sector representatives, and has focused on six main issues: water, food safety, energy, wealth, agriculture and biodiversity. The energy chapter has been the hardest one, though many sectorial agreements have been achieved in this and other fields. However, according to several NGOs, these agreements are clearly insufficient to allow the access to clean water and electricity for two billion of human beings, as well as to stop the fast rate of environmental destruction linked to the Western model of development.
Resumed the talks between Moldova and the Transdniestr Republic (until the 03rd 2002f September 2002f 2002)
On June 5th 1990 the Parliament of the Moldavskaya SSR re-named the territory as "SSR of Moldova" (name used in Romania), and two weeks later proclaimed its sovereignity. The Slavic minorities, that represent some 53% in the left bank of the river Dniestr, feared then a process of unification with Bucarest. Accordingly on September 2nd 1990 the Republic of Transdniestr is proclaimed in Tiraspol. In addition to the ethnic factor, the Slavic population of this region of Moldova is strongly linked to the Red Army and retains control over the Dniestr industries (alleged to contribute to 50% of Moldovan GDP). Russia, who keeps its 14th Army in the Transdniestr region after the Moldovan declaration of independence on August 23rd 1991, adopts since then an ambiguous position. The independence declaration of the Republic of Transdniestria on December 1st 1991 starts a war process that reaches its peak in the summer of 1992, and where the Slavic paramilitaries are supported by the 14th Russian Army. On July 1992 the presidents Mircea Snegur and Boris Yeltisn sign in Moscow a cease fire agreement, and the deployment of peace keeping Russian forces in the region takes place. Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE (by this order) are in charge to mediate in the conflict and Moldova, in order to improve its relations with Russia, joins the Community of Independent States on April 1994. At the beggining of July 2002 the mediator group, assembled in Kiev, launches a federalization proposal to discuss a final settlement of the self proclaimed Transdniestrian Republic within Moldova, that set up a new round of talks on August 22nd in Chisinau.
Joint Declaration United States-ASEAN on cooperation to fight international terrorism (until the 26th 2002f August 2002f 2002)
Within the frame of the Enduring Freedom Operation, the Secretary of State Collin Powell signed on August 1st with the Foreign Minister of Brunei Darussalam, representing the Association of South East Asian Nations, a Joint Declaration United States-ASEAN on cooperation to fight international terrorism. Indonesia and Malaysia, predominantly Muslim countries, and the Philippines, where the guerrilla Abu Sayaf seeks a separate Islamic state for the country's Muslim minority in Southern islands, are members of ASEAN where US intelligency has reported groups linked to Al Qaeda. The arrest of 38 activists of this terrorist network since December 2001 in Malaysia, and the suspicion on the logistical support that 11-S hijakers received from terrorist cells in this country, has driven Washington to demand stronger efforts to Selamat Datang's government against the groups linked to terrorist networks. In the Philippines 7 members of Abu Sayaf were arrested on August 3rd, and since the beginning of year 2002 1200 US military assistants are instructing the Philippine Army to fight the independentist Muslim guerrilla. Washington aims to balance the growth of islamist groups and political parties in Indonesia (accused to promote the conflict between Muslims and Christians in Ambón) through the concession, on August 1st, of a 50 milion US$ financial help to the Indonesian government of Megawati Sukarnoputri to fight terrorism, though the Bush Administration didn't recognize the independentist guerrilla of Aceh as a terrorist group to Jakarta. With such a Joint Declaration, the United States seeks to reinforce their alliances within the complexe South East Asian integration frame, one of the emergent regions with highest economic growth rates.
Second South American Summit in Guayaquil: integration of South America (until the 05th 2002f August 2002f 2002)
Coinciding with the 180th anniversary of the meeting hold in Guayaquil between the Libertadores Simón Bolívar and Jose de San Martin, the 12 leaders of the South American countries have met in this Ecuatorian city on July 25th-26th. The first summit, hold in Brasilia almost two years ago, settled the basis for a process of sub-continental integration full of uneasy questions. The economic crisis in Argentina and its eventual expansion to Uruguay and Brazil, the political and social instability in many of these countries (Colombia, Bolivia, Paraguay, Venezuela, Ecuador, Perú), and the numerous bilateral conflicts still confronting many of them, make much more difficult this integration process. However, the 12 presidents have approved, among other documents, the "Consensus of Guayaquil on integration, security and infrastructure for development", which reiterates the desire of the South American leaders to go on the construction of an integrated space strengthening the physical conections and the armonization of institutional and normative frameworks in the region. The debate on a previous Latin American integration before deepening the FTAA negotiations coincides with the US Congress approval of the Trade Promotion Authority.
Morocco - Spain relations: the conflict onthe island of Perejil/Leila (until the 28th 2002f July 2002f 2002)
The Spanish-Moroccan relations are back to its worst times since the Spanish decolonization of Western Sahara in 1976. The never resolved dispute on the referendum to be hold in this territory has shut off as a continuous element of friction between Morocco and Spain. The claim of the Alahuite kingdom over the Spanish Northern African cities of Ceuta and Melilla (along with several rocky island spread in front of the Moroccan coast) lay as well as a structural conflict in bilateral relations. The Spanish protest concerning the Youssoufi government's unwillingness to control the illegal immigrants leaving the Moroccan coasts, or the break down of the bilateral meetings to discuss the explotation of the Northwest African fishing-grounds, are immediate factors that drove to the withdrawal of the Moroccan ambassador to Madrid more than nine months ago. The Moroccan militar deployment in a rocky island whose sovereignity remains unclear and the Spanish military response, represent a first warning on the danger of a new low-intensity instability focus in Western Mediterranean between a country belonging to NATO and another one belonging to the Islamic Conference, now that the United States are seeking supports in the Arab countries. Actually, the US diplomacy has been decisive to reach an agreement draft on the Leila/Perejil island issue. To be fruitful this Spanish-Moroccan dialogue should include all the hot issues in bilateral relations.
Political crisis in Turkey (until the 21st 2002f July 2002f 2002)
Turkey is living a political crisis due to the chain resignation of many deputees of the Prime Minister's Democratic Left Party (DSP). Bulent Ecevit, who governs in coalition with the National Action Party (MHP) and the Motherland Party (ANAP), has at the age of 77 serious health problems which, according to opposition parties, render him unfit for the post of Prime Minister. The resignation of the Foreign minister Ismail Cem, one of the most charismatic Turkish political personalities, and the announcement that he will set up a new pro-European Union oriented party, has represented the "coup de gràce" to Ecevit's government. The Islamists of the former Virtue Party, banned in June 2001 and refounded as Happiness Party (Saadat), are gaining positions among the population facing the advance of the electoral process, announced by Ecevit for November 3rd. As the only Muslim member of NATO and sharing a 330 km. long boundary with Iraq, Turkey is a key allied for Washington's plans to oust Saddam Hussein. The recent visit to Ankara of Pentagon's number two, John Wolfowitz, and General Joseph Ralston, commander of U.S. European Command, makes clear the strategic relevance of a friendly and policaly stable Turkish government for the United States. However, Turkey fears that the collapse of the regime in Bagdad could lead to the creation of a Kurd state in northern Iraq, which would drive to a worsening of the situation in the southeastern Turkey.
Afghanistan and Iraq, two Endurance Freedom challenges (until the 16th 2002f July 2002f 2002)
The murder of the Afghan vice-president and Ministry of Industry, Haji Abdul Qadir, shows that the challenge to bring peace and stability to a country fragmented by many social and tribal institutionalized clivages has not yet been achieved. The Karzai Government, supported by the United States, faces resistences among the warlords whose ambitions were not satisfied in the Loya Jirga, the opium producers and the weakened but still active Taliban forces widespread through the country. In the other hand the Bush Administration has not been able to provide a satisfactory explanation to the massacre of civils in the town of Kararak, fogging the relations with the Afghan government. Also this week some informations on the Pentagon's plans to invade Iraq have filtered to the media. To launch this attack, Washington plans to involve several allied countries in the Middle East and Central Asia, as well as the Kurd minority within Iraq who has yet expressed reluctance. The US geo-politic movements in that region, based in precarious balances, drive to global effects.
The International Criminal Court comes into force (until the 08th 2002f July 2002f 2002)
It has been 50 years since the United Nations first recognized the need to establish an International Criminal Court, to prosecute crimes such as genocide. A committee created by the General Assembly prepared a draft statute in 1951 and a revised draft statute in 1953. However, and due to the Cold War, it was not until December 1989, in response to a request by Trinidad and Tobago, that the General Assembly asked the International Law Commission to resume work on an International Criminal Court with jurisdiction to include drug trafficking. Then, in 1993, the conflict in the former Yugoslavia and short after, the mass-killings in Rwanda, erupted, and war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide -- in the guise of "ethnic cleansing" -- once again commanded international attention. The limited powers in time and space of the ad hoc courts to prosecute these crimes accelerated the process to create the International Criminal Court, and the Statute of Rome establishing its basis was achieved in April 1998. In spite of the opposition of several countries such as USA, Russia, China or Israel to ratify the Statute of Rome, the ICC came into force on July 1st 2002, sixty days after sixty States have become parties through ratification or accession.
Financial crisis in the pre-electoral Brazil (until the 02nd 2002f July 2002f 2002)
Brazil has started in June a financial unsteadiness process. The national currency has peak its lowest rate to US dollar since the Plan Real was set up in 1993, and the country risk coefficient has grown up to the second position in the international financial markets, surpassing Nigeria and just behind Argentina. The most important South American economy has been affected in one hand by international speculative movements coinciding with the lowest exchange rate of the US dollar to the euro in the last three years, and the resulting withdrawal of capitals back to the United States. In the other hand the political indefinition issued from the near elections to be hold in October is contributing as well to the instability of the financial makets. In this field the best positioned candidate (38% of the votes intended), the leader of the Partido dos Trabalhadores, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, has provided a more moderated profile to his leftist uninmpiding development programme reaching an electoral agreement with the Partido Liberal, and presenting the businessman of Minas Gerais, Jose Alencar, as his eventual vicepresident. The Partido Socialdemócrata of the current president Fernando Henrique Cardoso has proposed as his candidate the senator by Sao Paulo Jose Serra, who upholds a more interventionist policy than the Cardoso Administration. The fight against violence and the narcos who control the favelas, the corruption in prisons and the achievement of a land reform to settle the 80.000 families of the Landless Workers Movement who still live in camps are other relevent issues of the electoral campaign.
Alvaro Uribe, new president of Colombia (until the 26th 2002f June 2002f 2002)
The election hold on May 26th drove Alvaro Uribe, a right-wing independent, to the presidency of Colombia without requiring a second round. His slogan "Firm hand, big heart" and a patriotic and belligerent speech against terrorism and narcos, reinforce Pastrana's policy to identify the conflict in Colombia with the global war on terrorism. Alvaro Uribe, a former student in Harvard whose father was killed by the FARC guerrilla, has taken advantage among the electorate due to the increasing of violence experienced in Colombian society since the traumatic break down of the peace pocess in February. Actually, the activity of the FARC-EP and the ELN guerrillas, along with the AUC paramilitaries, has let hundreds of deaths since then, and has produced a radicalisation of the public opinion on the peace talks. In the international context, the elected president has expressed his full support to Plan Colombia and military cooperation with the USA, and has granted polical asylum to Pedro Carmona, president of Venezuela during the brief coup d'Etat that overthrow Chavez temporary. The change of government in Colombia, one of the most unstable countries in Latin America, may have very important regional effects.
East Timor reaches full independence (until the 29th 2002f May 2002f 2002)
East Timor, a former Portuguese colony until the 1974 democratic revolution in Lisbon, was occupied by Indonesia in 1975, and incorporated as the 23rd province. This fact was never recognised by the United Nations. On August 30th 1999 this international organization promoted a ballot that clearly expressed the will of the East Timorese people for self-government, and was followed by a wave of violence and lootings by pro-Indonesian militias. On October 25th 1999 the United Nations Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET) was established, and assumed the exercise of legislative and executive authority during a transition period to support capacity-building for self-government. On May 20th 2002 the government issued from the 14th April elections, leaded by the former guerrillero Xanana Gusmao, took up full independence. The General Secretary of the UN, Koffi Annan, the presidents of Portugal and Indonesia (Sampaio and Sukernoputri respectively) and the former US president Clinton attended the event, that meant the birth of the so called first State of the 21st century.
James Carter visits Cuba (until the 22nd 2002f May 2002f 2002)
On May 12th the former democrat president James Carter started a historic visit to Cuba. During his presidency (1977-1981) important steps were taken in the process of normalization between both countries, such as the opening of the Interests Sections in Washington and Havana, the demarcation of the maritime borders between Cuba and the United States, or the allowance of the American citizens to travel to Cuba (this was forbiden again by Reagan a few years later). On May 6th John Bolton, current subsecretary of State for Arms Control, denounced that Cuba is producing biological weapons, fact categorically denied by la Havana and toned down by Collin Powell, who stated however that Cuba has the technology to produce this kind of arms. The Bush Administration has included Cuba in he list of countries supporting international terrorism, and has announced a hardening of its policy towards the island. Washington lays as well, directly or indirectly, behind the worsening of relations of Cuba with other Latin American countries (specially Mexico and Uruguay), and is intensifying contacts with the Cuban exilees in Florida. Inside Cuba, the succes of the social policies do not hide the lack of political freedom. In this sense, the recent presentation of the Varela Project could set up the basis for inner reforms respecting the frame of the current constitution.
Western Sahara: autodetermination or autonomy (until the 14th 2002f May 2002f 2002)
The UN Security Council approved on April 30th the resolution 1406, extending the mandate of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) until 31 July 2002. The diplomatic uneasy relations between Algeria and Morocco on the final status of the former Spanish colony have experienced a qualitative change when the United States Administration announced recently its support to the June 2001 Baker Plan. According to ths plan, the UN would renounce to the autodetermination referendum foreseen since the set up of the MINURSO in 1990, and would accept instead an autonomous status of the Wesern Sahara within Morocco. This fact has coincided with the approval by Moroccan authorities of the concession to an American petrol company to start prospections in Western Sahara's coast. Spain, the former metropoly since 1976, has announced the upgrade of relations with Algeria to the same level tan with Morocco, with whom mantains several bilateral disputes. Next summer, when the MINURSO mandate expires, will be probably known the final status of this territory considered the last colony in Africa.
Chechnya: humanitarian disaster or war against terrorism? (until the 09th 2002f May 2002f 2002)
The recent death of the Jordan born Chechen guerrilla leader Khatab and the defeat of a resolution that would have committed the UN Commission on Human Rights to censuring Russia for its human rights abuses in Chechnya have called again the international atention on this conflict, started after the catastrophic military adventure of Moscow against this self proclaimed independent republic in 1994. On August 1996 the Khasavyurt Agreement, reached with the mediation of the recently disappeared general Lebed, put a false end to the first Chechen War, and allowed the Caucasic republic to reach a "de facto" independence. However, the agreement was interpreted differently in Moscow and Grozny and their relations worsened during the following years. In late summer 1999 the Chechen guerrilla activities spoiled to the neighbouring Dagestan, and several Russian cities suffered terror attacks attributed to Chechen groups. Other inner factors of Russian politics and the geoestrategic relevance of Chechnya to exploit the oil and gaz of the Caspian bassin lay as well on the begining of the 2nd Chechen War on September 1999. Considered by Putin as a battle in the global war against terrorism since the 11th September attacks to the WTC and Washington, the Chechen War remains as one of the most important issues in Russian inner politics, and a source of instability in the complex ethnic mosaic of the Caucasus region.
Political Earthquake in France (until the 29th 2002f April 2002f 2002)
The first round of the French presidential poll, on April 21st, has had as a surprising result the partial victory of the extreme right-wing leader Jean Marie Le Pen (16,98% of the votes), who will contend with the gaullist candidate Jaques Chirac (19,70%) in the second round on May 5th. The political atomization, a mistaken electoral campaign and, overcoat, the disillusionment of voters (abstention has risen up to 28%) have sunk the socialist candidate Lionel Jospin (16,10%), who has yet announced his retreat of active politics. By the second time since the V Republic was set up in 1965 there will not be a left-wing candidate in the second round of a presidential election. Meanwhile, the ultranationalist and xenophobe speech of Le Pen has rooted within close to 1/5 of the French electorate. Jaques Chirac, who is opting to re-election as president of France, has obtained the suport of the moderate parties (both left and right-wing) for the second round. However, this significant advance of an extreme right-wing party does not represent an isolated phenomenon in Europe, and remains as a worring issue.
Serious institutional crisis in Venezuela (until the 22nd 2002f April 2002f 2002)
As a response to the decision of Hugo Chávez to dismiss the managing team of the state-owned company Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., in the frame of a general strike supported both by the employers association Fedecámaras and the trade union Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela, a demonstration was called in Caracas on April 11th. This demonstration was repressed with fire weapons, and started a popular revolt that could have become the beggining of an unprecedented civil conflict in this South American country. The Army and the civil society are virtually divided between those who support the Bolivarian Revolution of Chávez and those who consider him a populist autocrat. The April 11th civic-military coup d'état appointed as acting president the leader of Fedecámaras, Pedro Carmona, but he was inmediatly dismissed by the pressure of institutional white-collars and military who refused to accept his decrees oriented to the radical dismantling of the Bolivarian State, along with the occupation by pro-Chavist demonstrators of the Palacio de Miraflores (the residence of the Venezuelan president).
Total war in the Palestinian territories (until the 15th 2002f April 2002f 2002)
The Middle East is plunged in a war dynamics that even the late response of the US Administration, who scheduled a visit of the Secretary of State Collin Powell to the region, seems unable to stop. With its defiant attitude to international community and violating the Geneva Convention and the UN resolutions on the Middle East, Ariel Sharon has launched the Israeli Army to occupy the territories under control of the Palestinian National Authority, sheltering on the fight against terrorism. In the Arab world, who supported the Saudi peace plan on March 28, the pro-Western countries are facing serious difficulties to contain the anger of their citizens. Egypt and Jodania have virtually blocked their diplomatic relations with the State of Israel, Syrian troops have been mobilized and Hezbolah has intensified its activities in Southern Lebanon. The Sharon Government should distinguish between the fight against terrorism and the right to exist of a Palestinian State respectful with the existence of Israel. Meanwhile, the dialogue of weapons will impose its dangerous drift through the radicalization and expansion of conflict.
Taken up again the Peace Process in Angola (until the 08th 2002f April 2002f 2002)
On March 30th representatives of the Angolan Government and UNITA signed in the city of Luena, in the presence of the UN Representative and the Troika of peace process observers (USA, Portugal and Russia), a cease-fire under a Memorandum of Understanding complementary to the 1994 Lusaka Protocol. The Angolan conflict, issued from the sudden decolonization by Portuguese in 1975 and immediately fallen to the dynamics of the Cold War (a pro-Soviet government controlled by the MPLA and a pro-American guerrilla -UNITA-) gathers tribal, ideological and economic interests. The death on February 22nd of the founder and undiscussed leader of UNITA, Jonas Savimbi, has opened a new stage in the peace process since the failure of the implementation of the Lusaka Protocol reached in November 1994. The Angolan government's consideration to submit to the national assembly an amnesty bill for UNITA fighters seems to be the last step to bring peace to this country devastated by 27 years of war.
14th Arab Summit in Beirut (until the 02nd 2002f April 2002f 2002)
On March 27-28 the 14th Arab Summit will be held in Beirut. Among other issues, leaders of the 22 member States of the Arab League, will discuss the current situation in Palestine, the embargo to Iraq or the economic integration. The Saudi sponsored Peace Plan proposes for the first time the recognition of the State of Israel by Arab States if Israeli forces withdraw to the 1967 boundaries. Meanwhile, the United States is seeking for allies among Arab countries for an eventual action against Iraq, in the frame of the Enduring Freedon antiterrorist operation. The results of this Summit, reflexed in the Beirut Declaration, will draw the future of the conflictive Middle East region.
International Conference on Financing for Development in Monterrey (until the 26th 2002f March 2002f 2002)
One of the most important challenges of globalization consists in a fair redistribution of wealth in a global level. The United Nations, conscious of the gravity that the increase of the differences among rich and poor countries experienced during the last decade poses for international stability, has organized for the first time an International Conference on Financing for Development. The aim of this Conference is to seek fair solutions for the financing of the Development programmes: from mobilization of domestic financial ressources in wealthy countries to the favouring of technical and financial cooperation. This conference gathers the main international financial organisms, 54 heads of government or state and more than 300 finance, trade, foreign and other ministers, and repesents an unprecedented event in the history of Cooperation for Development.
Elections in Zimbabwe (until the 18th 2002f March 2002f 2002)
The presidential poll celebrated last weekend in Zimbabwe has been fraudulent, according to many international observers and the majotity of the Zimbabwean independent media. Robert Mugabe, the former combatant who leaded the anti-colonialist movement in the 70's, rules Zimbabwe since 1980, when the independece from the United Kingdom was achieved. On February 2000, the government of Mugabe was defeated at his proposal to referendum of a new law for land distribution (a problem inherited from colonial rule). Aiming to satisfy the demands of the former combatants of the liberation war, the government authorized the invasion of the white farmers' lands, and toughened the harassment against opposition groups. These circumstances have produced an unprecedented political violence during the last two years. Only on January and February 2002, 31 people have died and 70.000 have been displaced.
Debate on the Future of the European Union (until the 11th 2002f March 2002f 2002)
On 2001 February 26th, under the Swedish presidency of the European Union, the 15 ministers of Foreign Affairs approved in Brussels the Treaty of Nice. According to this Treaty, a debate on the revision and modification of the Fundamental Treaties was required with the aim to adjust them to the new challenges embodied by the enlargement of the Union eastwards, the democratic legitimacy of the European institutions, the build up of a common foreign and security policies and the new problems posed by the globalization. The harmonization of these policies should be reached in an Intergovernmental Conference to be held in 2004. On February 28th the Convention on the Future of Europe was set up in Brussels with the participation not only of the 15 EU member states, but the 13 candidate countries as well. Learn more details on how the different European countries are facing this process of definition of a common future through the links provided.
Venezuela: an unfinished crisis (until the 05th 2002f March 2002f 2002)
Since February 7th, when colonel Pedro Luis Soto demanded in a TV speech the resignation of Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, the political, social and economic situation in this Caribbean country has become absorved in a crisis dynamics. Demonstrations against the Bolivarian government of Chavez, supported by the Catholic Church and some factions of the Armed Forces, have been countered by other demonstrations of popular support to Chavez' administration. Political and social instability, combined with low prices of oil in international markets, drove the government on February 13th to adopt liberalization in the exchange of the national currency, in order to stop the flee of capitals and reduce the effects of the Argentine crisis on the trust in Latin American economies. In the international relation field, the rapprochement to Cuba and a visit of Chavez to Irak have undermined the Venezuelan-US relations, while the violent break down of the Colombian peace process represents a bad new for the quest of stability in Venezuela. Learn more on the current events in this country through the links provided.
Milosevic on the Hague's dock (until the 26th 2002f February 2002f 2002)
The International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, set up in May 1993 by the 827 resolution of the UN Security Council and based in the Hague, started last week the hearing against the former Yugoslavian president Slobodan Milosevic, charged with war crimes in Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo. Milosevic, who considers himself as a victim of a political trial, does not recognize the Tribunal and accuses it to be a tool of the expansionist NATO and US policy. Learn more on the first trial of an international tribunal against a former chief of State charged with genocide since 1945.
US-Iran relations: a worring issue (until the 18th 2002f February 2002f 2002)
The 23rd anniversary of the Islamic revolution in Iran has coincided with a serious worsening of the relation with the United States. The speech on the state of the Union done by president Bush, who included Iran in a suposed "Axis of the Evil", has misscarried the conciliatory policy of the moderate government of Seyed Mohammad Khatami, and has reinforced the conservative factions of the Islamic regime. Since the diplomatic ties among the United States and Iran were broken following the revolution in 1979 and the crisis of the hostages in the American Embassy, the relationship between both countries has never been normalized. In the current international context, the United States accuse Iran of protecting and supporting terrorist groups (among them Hezbolah, the Shia struggle movement of Southern Lebanon), and of trying to develop its own nuclear weapons. In the other hand, after the deployement of US military forces in Afghanistan and Uzbekistan, and considering that the United States have military bases in Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Iran becomes virtually surrounded by Washington's forces. Learn more on the details of these conflictive relations through the links provided.
The World Economic Forum helds its annual meeting in New York (until the 12th 2002f February 2002f 2002)
From January 31st to February 4th 2002 has been held in New York the World Economic Forum's annual meeting. In a city besieged by the security forces, representatives of the main world 36 multinational companies have shared the fora with political, social and, for the first time, religious leaders to "improve the state of the world ... and to advance worldwide in the path of economic and social progress". Antiglobalization groups, as they did a year ago, have celebrated a parallel summit in the Brazilian city of Porto Alegre known as the World Social Forum, upholding a more human and shared in common globalization than the one represented in New York. Learn more details through the links we provide on the different concepts of globalization.
Prewar situation in the Middle East (until the 04th 2002f February 2002f 2002)
The prewar situation in the Middle East is about to a qualitative step according to the last events occurred in this region. The murder of Elie Hobeika, former Lebanese minister and the main witness for the indictment in Belgium against the Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, for his responsability in the massacre of Shabra and Chatila in 1982, has added more tension. The last suicidal Pelestinean attack, carried out by a woman by the first time, shows as well the radicalization achieved in the confrontation. President Arafat, virtually kept in detention in his Gaza's residence for the last two months, has been hardly criticized by the US Administration, who is considering the withdraw of his ambassador to the Palestinean National Authority. In this context, the meeting to be hold in the United States among Presidents George Bush and Ariel Sharon on February 7th, will be an inflexion point in the Middle East conflict, unresolved by the United Nations since the foundation of the State of Israel in 1948.
Colombia: hope for peace (until the 29th 2002f January 2002f 2002)
An international community sponsored desperate mediation avoided, last week, the giving up of the Colombian peace process started three years ago with the acceptance of talks both by the Government and the FARC guerrilla. The complexity of the Colombian conflict, participated by two of the oldest guerrillas of Latin America (FARC and ELN), the Army, paramilitary groups and narco sponsored "sicarios", makes more difficult the quest of a satisfactory solution for all. According to the 20th January Government-FARC meeting, in April a conclusive agreement should be reached. From Diplomaticnet, we invite Colombians from the whole ideological specter to share their opinion and debate on which future they expect for Colombia in a frame of peace, tolerance and respect.
United States set up permanent military bases in Central Asia (until the 21st 2002f January 2002f 2002)
The Bush Administration started consultations with several Central Asian governments with the aim to set up permanent military bases in their territories. If the pretext is to strengthen the anti-terrorist efforts in the region, the economic importance of the huge oil and gas reserves sheltered there seems to be the underlying reason for the decision. US military presence in the former Soviet republics has been considered by Moscow as another proof of the American unilateralism, and Russia has stopped the dismantling of its spying Cuban base in Lourdes. China and Iran are also concerned by the establishment of permanent US bases so close to their boundaries, in a region whose influence they were battling for since the collapse of the Soviet Union. This Washington's geostrategic movement is directly and globally affecting international relations.
Euro: a reality for Europeans (until the 15th 2002f January 2002f 2002)
As a result of the achivement of the 3rd stage of the Economic and Monetary Union, and waiting for the fulfilment of the Growth and Stability Pact, 12 out of the 15 countries of the EU introduced the euro cash the 1st January, which will become the only legal tender in one month and a half or two months (depending on the country). Though three years ago the Euro Zone currencies established a fixed rate exchange, the introduction of euro represents a historic symbolical step through the European integration process. A bit more than 300 million citizens, from Laponia to Canary Islands and from Dublin to Crete, are getting used to the new coins and notes of euro, that aims to become a serious concurrence to the dollar as a reference value unit in international trade and financial markets. From the links we provide you can get informed on History of the EMU, monitor the logistical and legal developments in the Euro Zone countries, and learn more on the meaning of euro both for the European integration process and the international financial markets.
Escalation in tension between India and Pakistan (until the 07th 2002f January 2002f 2002)
The attack against the Indian Parliament the 13th December has had as a result the worst scalation of political tension between India and Pakistan since the 1971 war, which ended with the independence of Bangladesh. In the current international context, India points to Pakistan as a logistical and financial provider of the Kashmir independentist groups (two of them considered terrorist groups by the USA). The Kashmir issue is the root of two wars hold by India and Pakistan since their independence in 1947. Considering that since 1974 India is a nuclear power (Pakistan got this status in 1998), the real danger of a new full scale war remains in the eventual use of mass destruction weapons. Learn more, through the links provided, on India-Pakistan relations, which at present are at their crossroad in the new balances of the international system issued after September 11th.
The collapse of Argentina (until the 31st 2002f December 2002f 2001)
The economic crisis in Argentina spread to the political field on Thursday, when several ministers and the president De la Rúa, resigned. The turmoils, leaded by sectors of Argentine citizens directly affected by the draconian conditions demanded by the international financial mechanisms, left behind more than twenty deaths, and social peace seems still a far possibility. In the political field, Government's resignation has propelled the peronist Partido Justicialista to power. The race for the candidacy to president among several PJ's leaders in the anticipated elections announced for next March has begun. Judicial power has also intevened in the crisis, forbiding to several white collars of the resigning Government (former president De la Rúa and former minister of Economy Domingo Cavallo included) to leave the country. The Argentine political crisis is seriously affecting the international financial markets, and it could easyly extend to other Latin American countries whose economies are strongly tied to the Argentine one. Learn more on the evolution of this crisis in the links we have selected.
United States withdraw from ABM Treaty (until the 24th 2001f December 2001f 2001)
The arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union was dramatically reduced after the signature in Moscow in May 1972 of the Anti-Ballistic Missiles Treaty (ABM), among the then US president Richard Nixon and Prime Secretary of the CPSU Leonid Brezhnev. The break up of the USSR in December 1991 and the re-definition of the new world order, characterized by multipolarity and decentralisation, opened in the United States during the second half of the 90's the debate on the Missile Defense Program. On 12th December the US president George Bush notified to his Russian colleague, Vladimir Putin, the unilateral withdraw of his country from the ABM Treaty, which obstructs, according to his Government, the defense capabilities of the United States in the current international order. This controversial decission has been deemed in several US academic and political frameworks and, specially, abroad, as another proof of the unilateralism of the Bush Administration.
Central Asia: needed balances (until the 17th 2001f December 2001f 2001)
Stability in the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia has become a sine qua non condition for the development of the US leaded antiterrorist campaign. Appeared in the international scene in December 1991, the geographical situation of these republics in the very heart of Eurasia and the existence in their territories of huge reserves of oil and gaz have set on them the sights of several powers. In the other hand, strong presidencialist regimes with authoritarian ticks, are fighting the expansion of Islamic fundamentalism supported from Afghanistan until few weeks ago. An example of the significance that these countries have achieved for the international balance of power is the Bishkek conference on regional stability and counterterrorism, organized by OSCE and UN and foreseen for the 13th and 14th November.
Dialogue among Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders (until the 10th 2001f December 2001f 2001)
The freezing of the quest of a political solution for the Cypriot partition can be changed by the meeting scheduled the 4th December in Nicosia between Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders, Glafkos Clerides and Rauf Denktash. The independence of Cyprus from the UK in 1960, designed by the Zurich and London Agreements of February 1959, set up weak basis to reconciliate Greek majority and Turkish minority in the island. Interests of Turkey and Greece have paralyzed several times the negotiation during the last decades. Full involvement of the UN was achieved with the resolution 750/92, and the envoy of the UNFICYP in 1993. The UN has relaunched the process preparing propositions to be discussed this week by Clerides and Denktash.
11th Summit of Iberoamerican Presidents and Chiefs of Government (until the 03rd 2001f December 2001f 2001)
The Iberoamerican Conference of Nations, that has hold last weekend its 11th Summit of Presidents and Chiefs of Government, has become a privileged forum for the exchange of ideas and the quest of solutions for problems among the community of American and European countries sharing Portuguese or Spanish as their mother tongue. The new Peruvian democracy has been in charge of the Summit, where leaders have adopted a meeting system similar to the European Comision one (more flexible). The Brasilian proposal against the proteccionism of developed economies has been aproved unanimously, in order to promote the economic growth of Latin American countries via foreign trade. A text condemning terrorism has also been passed, though there is no agreement of all countries on what is terrorism.
Post-taliban Afghanistan (until the 26th 2001f November 2001f 2001)
The sudden collapse of the taliban regime before the reaching of a political solution for the future government of Afghanistan was one of the most feared scenarios. The Northern Alliance, an heterogeneous coallition of tadzhik, uzbek and hazara mujahiddin that ruled the country from 1992 to 1996, is not representative for 40% of Afghans, ethnic pashto, who live in southern and eastern provinces. The upraising of several tribal pashto leaders against the taliban rule (of this same ethnic group) and their warnings preventing the advance of the Alliance through their territories, is a clear evidence of the complexity that the UN will face for the normalisation of this country devastated by 23 years of uninterrupted war.
Fourth WTO Ministerial Conference in Doha (until the 19th 2001f November 2001f 2001)
After Singapur, Geneva and Seattle, the 142 World Trade Organization member states held in Doha (Qatar) its Fourth ministerial conference from the 9th to the 13th November. The agenda of this summit aims to promote higher liberalization standars in the international trade exchanges. The economic crisis atmosphere, fastened since the bomb attacks the 11th September, the role played by antiglobalization movements and the foreseen incorporation of the People's Republic of China in early 2002, are issues to take in consideration during the development of the conference.
Elections in Nicaragua (until the 12th 2001f November 2001f 2001)
Nicargua has hold the 4th November her third presidential free election since the implementation of Oscar Arias' promoted peace-making plan in 1988. Up to 2,4 million of Nicaraguan from a 2,9 million census have participated in this poll whose main issues were employement, corruption and poverty. The clean development of this election represents a qualitative step through reconciliation of Nicaraguan society, as well as a strengthening of the pluralist system.
Freezing of the talks for Korea's unification (until the 05th 2001f November 2001f 2001)
A recent statement of president Bush calling Kim Jong Il, the North Korean leader, "secretive" and "suspicious", has been used by Pyongyang to cancel the high level talks which had to be held in the Noth Korean capital between 28th and 31st October. Contacts among both Korean governments were started up following a historic summit in June 2000, but were frozen early 2001 due to the reconsideration of the Bush Administration on the inclusion of convetional arsenals (in addition to the North Korean missiles program) as a hot issue in the negotiating agenda. The squeeze of the talks represent a threat to this young peace process, in a conflict rooting back to the first years of the Cold War.
Summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) (until the 29th 2001f October 2001f 2001)
Between 18th and 21st October has been hold the 13th summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic co-operation (APEC) in Shangai. APEC is a mechanism of anual summits set up in 1989 and shared by 21 countries of the Pacific Bassin. Born from the interdependence of the economies of this wide region, which represented up to 43% of the global GDP in 1999, it has become a reference in international meetings. Countries as the United States, Russia, China, Indonesia, Australia, Mexico or Japan are members of this process of conferences. The current international situation has been one of the main issues in the debates. There has been important results in the economic and politic field, as the engagement of China with the US lead counter-terrorism coalition.
Bactereological War, a real threat (until the 22nd 2001f October 2001f 2001)
The "New War", as president Bush defined the warlike situation in the United States since the 11th September, has three main aspects. The first one is the non-territorial status of the enemy, who operates in several fronts along with the militar one. The second side is the importance of information in a globalized world where national boundaries are unable to contain fluxes of news and data, and the last one is the use of technology as a massive destruction weapon. We focus the current issue of this week on this aspect, and particularly to the threat of bactereological war related with the anthrax breakdown in the United States.
The United States start the "Enduring Freedom" operation (until the 16th 2001f October 2001f 2001)
The response to the terrorist attacks of the 11th September is composed, according to the Powell Doctrine, by both a militar and a diplomatic dimension. In this second field the USA have deployed an intense international activity in order to build a strong and wide alliance before the attack to the taliban and the terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan. Specially important has been the quest of supporters among the Arab and Islamic countries, in order to avoid that the "Enduring Freedom" operation appear as a confrontation between Western countries and Islam. The mechanism to get a wide consensus has been a different adherence-level to the coalition, though this fact makes clear its fragility.
Pakistan: South Asia's powder magazine (until the 08th 2001f October 2001f 2001)
The international moment issued after the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington has brought Pakistan, the 9th most populated country in the world with up to 150 million inhabitants and a land area over 800.000 square km., to an unconfortable situation. Traditional ally of Washington during the Cold War, and main base for the mujahiddin along the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, in the Kuranic schools of Peshawar, Queta and other bordering cities the Pakistani secret services promoted the taleban movement. Actually, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is the only country in the world to recognize currently the integrist Afghan regime. The militar government of general Pervez Musharraf, who following a military takeover in October 1999 dismissed the president Nawaz Sharif, has expressed full support to the United States in the present international crisis. In spite of this, several subjects make clear the danger of subversion in Pakistan. Owing to the precarious ethnic balance (four main groups with uneasy relations live together in the country), its conflict with India for the Kashmir and the nuclear career, and the wide social base of supporters of the islamic party Jamaat-e-Islami and the taleban regime, the real danger of an allied military action in Afghanistan lies in its consequences on the inner Pakistani politics and the regional balance.
Afghanistan: from tribal wars to international terrorism (until the 01st 2001f October 2001f 2001)
The terrorist attacks in the USA the 11th September has focused the international attention in Afghanistan. This country, devastated after 23 years of uninterrupted war, since 1994 is ruled by the theocratic regime of the taleban, whose only inner opposition is embodied by a heterogeneous coalition known as Northern Alliance. This group currently controls about the 10% of the territory in northern Afghanistan. The refusal of the Pakistani supported taleban regime to surrender the alleged organizer of the terrorist attacks in the United States, Osama Bin Laden, has had as a consequence the biggest military deployment of the superpower since the Gulf War, and an international coalition for the global fight against the terrorist networks. Focusing in the political and humanitarian consequences of the new international situation on Afghanistan, we provide a list of links which consider as well the global dimension of this conflict.
MAJOR INTERNATIONAL CRISIS: TERRORISM SHAKES THE USA (until the 25th 2001f September 2001f 2001)
Diplomaticnet wishes to express its firm condemnation to the terrorist attacks that shocked New York, Washington and the whole world the 11th September. Our basic goal is to place new technologies to promote international dialogue, peace and development. Thus terrorist acts, whatever are they targets or origin, only can found our strongest repulse. We launch a list of links related to the terror attacks to the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.: official US sources, the reactions of the main ministries of Foreign Affairs and international organizations, sources on terrorist groups, etc.
Migrations: a global problem (until the 15th 2001f September 2001f 2001)
Migration movements have been a constant in history, and they have shaped the contemporary world as we know it. The new technical means, however, allow faster and large-scale migrations, enhaced by unequalities among a pauperized South and a North concentrating more and more wealth. The case of the Afhgans trying to reach the Australian coast, Maghribians and Sub-saharians in the Gibraltar Strait, Kurds and Iraquians landing in Greece and Italy. or the recent talks between Bush and Fox to stop the "espaldas mojadas" arrival to the USA, make clear that immigration is a global phenomenon requering global solutions.
Constituent elections in East Timor (until the 10th 2001f September 2001f 2001)
The 30th August were hold in East Timor the first democratic elections in the last two years, since the referendum for independence broke out a wave of violence conducted by Indonesian paramilitary. From this polls will be elected the 88 deputies in charge of the redaction of the new constitution for this country that will become fully independent in 2002.
Third UN World Conference against Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia and related Intolerance (until the 03rd 2001f September 2001f 2001)
From the 31st August to the 7th September the Third UN World Conference against Racism will be held in Durban, South Africa. As racial discrimination and ethnic violence grow in complexity, they become more of a challenge for the international community. As a result, new tools to deal with racism and to be discussed in this conference are called for. Visit our links to learn more details.
Macedonia: the path to peace (until the 27th 2001f August 2001f 2001)
The 13th August was signed in Macedonia a peace treaty among Slaves and Albanian minority, that represents almost one third of the population. In spite of the repeated violations of the cease fire agreement, NATO has started to deploy troops in order to supervise the peace process.
The conflict of Nagorno Karabakh is still unresolved after 13 years (until the 20th 2001f August 2001f 2001)
In 1988 the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan to control the Autonomous Republic of Nagorno Karabakh, mostly inhabited by Armenians though integrated in then Socialist Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan, represented one of the main nationalist problems that M. Gorbachev had to front during the last years of the USSR. Thirteen years later Armenia and Azerbaijan, independent countries since 1991, don't find the way of solution despite Group of Minsk's mediation. Learn more on the details through the links provided.
Hot winter in Argentina (until the 14th 2001f August 2001f 2001)
The budgetaire adjustment imposed by the Government of Argentina, in order to avoid a financial collapse, has had unlucky consequences on the social stability of the country. Keeping the credibility in the capacity of payment of the Argentinean external debt opposing to international speculators, has meant a decrease up to 30% of the purchaising power of some Argentinean families. Learn more on the delicate economic situation in one of the most important countries of MERCOSUR.
The works of the Hague based International Court of Justice go on (until the 07th 2001f August 2001f 2001)
Several of those charged with genocide and crimes against Mankind during the wars that followed the dissolution of Yugoslavia, such as the former Serbian president Milosevic and the Croatian general Ademi, are at present seating on the dock. The International Court is proceeding with the trials and verdicts, that have no precedent since the Nüremberg Trials after WWII. Learn more on the details of this process and the opinions around it in the directly affected countries.
Mr. Alejandro Toledo enters upon office of Peruvian presidency (until the 30th 2001f July 2001f 2001)
Mr. Alejandro Toledo, candidate of Perú Posible and winner with 53% of the votes of the second round of the Peruvian presidential elections, will enter upon office the 28th July. This fact fulfils the Peruvian democratic transition, although the new government has to face a delicate political and economic situation. Learn more on the details visiting the links offered in this section.
Political violence in Jamaica (until the 23rd 2001f July 2001f 2001)
The political tension experienced among the two main parties of the Caribbean island (People's Popular Party, in the government, and Jamaica Labour Party)led to a wave of political violence resulting in at least 20 deaths. Learn more about the different versions of this conflict from the web sites of its leads and the Jamaican media.
Freezing of the Peruvian-Venezuelan bilateral relations (until the 16th 2001f July 2001f 2001)
The controversial arrest of Vladimiro Montesinos, former advisor of Alberto Fujimori, in the Venezuelan capital, has burst a diplomatic storm among Caracas and Lima. President Chavez makes Peruvian police responsible to hide information that could have been useful for Montesino's arrest, while some Peruvian political parties accuse the Venezuelan Government as non-democratic. You can monitor this diplomatic crisis through the links we offer.
Africa dies of AIDS (until the 09th 2001f July 2001f 2001)
24,5 million out of the 34,5 million AIDS cases identified in the world are located in Africa, while 4 million out of the 5,2 new cases of infection took place in this continent, according UNAIDS data. The effects of AIDS in Africa are no longer just a health issue, but a very serious social and demographic problem.
The Hungarian National Assembly passes a Law with extraterritoriality effects (until the 02nd 2001f July 2001f 2001)
The treaty of Trianon created in 1920 the Hungarian State on the ashes of the Habsburg Empire, though it put out of the sovereignty of Budapest 2/3 of the traditionally Magyar territories and almost 1/3 of the ethnic Hungarian population. The 19th June the Hungarian National Assembly passed a law that provides social and laboral rights to the 3,5 million Hungarians sparsed in neighbouring countries such as Romania, Ukraine, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia and Yugoslavia (the Hungarians of Austria were excluded due to pressures of the European Union). Learn more on the situation of the largest ethnic minority in Europe and the tensions generated by this law.
Middle East: A new opportunity for peace? (until the 25th 2001f June 2001f 2001)
Israelis and Palestinians look for how to apply the CIA-led ceasefire, also knows as the Tenet plan. Know the current situation from different points of view.
Post-electoral situation in Peru (until the 18th 2001f June 2001f 2001)
The electoral victory of Perú Posible, leaded by Alejandro Toledo Manrique, opens a process of democratic normalization in the Andean country, that should culminate the 28th July with the change of Government. Learn more on the factors affecting the Peruvian way to the post-fujimorism with the links provided.
Elections in the United Kingdom (until the 11th 2001f June 2001f 2001)
British citizens are called to polls in the United Kingdom on Tuesday 6th. European issues such as the Euro have become central in the electoral campaign. Get informed of the electoral process through the British institutions, press and political parties.
Afghanistan: a never ending war (until the 05th 2001f June 2001f 2001)
The current Taliban regime hides in Afghanistan, through the observance of a strict interpretation of the Shari'a and with Pakistani support, the control of the Pashtos in a country composed by multiple tribal and ethnic identities. Visit the links we offer to learn more about the complexity of the Afghan conflict.
Law project on the status of Corsica (until the 26th 2001f May 2001f 2001)
The French National Assembly discussed from the 15th to the 18th May a law project on the new territorial status of Corsica inside the French Republic, doing an important qualitative step in the so-called "Matignon Process". Keep informed about the results of this parliamentarian discussions with important consequences in a more decentralized reorganization of the French territory.